Tuesday, December 26, 2006

As Homer Simpson Once Said...

Awe....the Denver Broncos!

As it currently stands, the Pats will host the Denver Broncos in the wild card round of the playoffs. More about that to come, but first, let's talk about the big win on Sunday.

I felt like the team did a great job in 2 phases of the game and as they say, two out of three ain't bad. First, the offense did a pretty good job. Obviously the gameplan was to spread out the Jags big defense and utilize the short passing game. Of Brady's 39 pass attempts, only TWO were for more than 15 yds. He once again proved what a winner he is. Brady was NOT at his best Sunday, he missed a number of throws, but he got the job done and won the game even though it meant running a little bit. (Speaking of, I'm shocked that Clint Ingram didn't get a spearing penalty for his hit on Brady. Yes, Brady dove instead of sliding. Yes the guy was coming full speed. YES he left his feet AND lead with the crown of his helmet right into Brady's spine. I sincerely hope the league takes a look at the hit and sends the kid a fine. All he had to do was touch Brady and he would have been OK if he just fell on top of him. The league needs to send this rookie a lesson for his OWN safety. If he continues to tackle with his head, he will paralyze himself at some point.) The offensive line did a great job protecting Brady considering he dropped back 43 times and got sacked only once. Moreover, Brady had a nice pocket and good throwing lanes. David Thomas showed why he was Vince Young's favorite target at Texas and makes the potential loss of Graham to free agency a little easier to take. I'll suck it up on this one and not that I was entirely happy with the game plan, but Joshy had a pretty good game too.

Second, the defense did a great job except for two plays. Hey, it happens. Obviously the first bad play was the fluke run by Jones-Drew. (I knew I should have started him on my fantasy team!) What shocked me the most was that, even seeing him rolling on the ground, not one official blew a whistle! There is NO WAY that all officials noticed that no Patriot touched him, so why wasn't there a whistle? I don't blame Tully at all on that play, nor the rest of the D. Take away that fluke play and Drew ran for 57 yds on 18 carries, that's pretty good D. The other horrid play was the Matt Jones TD. Where was the defense? I didn't get to see who missed the tackle, and I was told it was Asante, but NO safety help? NO deep zone coverage? One DB on the entire side of the field? Somebody screwed up badly on that one, it's hard to believe that up by ten points at that point in the game they'd play strictly man coverage.
ALSO, Rodney looks better now than he did at the beginning of the season, it was GREAT to have him back. Kudos to the D for stepping up and ending the game when it had to.

Special teams was the weak link. I don't blame Gostkowski for missing a 50 yarder, that happens to everyone. I think he'll be fine heading into the playoffs. While kick coverage was decent, kick returns were bad -especially the Maroney return. I was most disappointed in Todd "Ken Walter" Sauerbrun. Field position will make a BIG difference in the playoffs, so let's hope he was just rusty.

Now there seems to be the debate over what the Pats should do next week. As I wrote last week, I believe Belichick should rest everyone and use this week as a bye. Get Cassel some snaps, get Testeverde some work - don't get Brady speared. Rest everyone that is remotely hurt. They cannot get the #3 seed unless Indy loses again. Even then, they won't know until all the games are over who the opponent will be, unlike last year, when they knew they'd get the Jags if they lost to Miami. If you are interested in who is still in the playoff hunt and how they get in, visit ESPN at http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2668613

As it stands now, SD and Baltimore have the bye week, Indy is 3rd, Pats 4, Denver 5 and Jets 6th.
That means Jets at Indy and Denver at NE.
I'm not so sure I want to face Denver. I think the match-ups work better for the Pats the other way. Denver has a running game far superior to the Jets and would have a better chance of beating Indy. The Pats against Jets would be WW3 and there is no way in hell Belichick let's Manjerky beat him at home AGAIN.

Getting back to current reality, the Jets have been hot and Indy not so hot and it is quite concievable that the Jets win that game and go to SD. Meaning a Pats win brings them to Baltimore. Jet and Pats victories in those games would mean the Pats hosting the Jets for the AFC Championship. It doesn't get any better than that!

Hopefully I'll be able to post 2-3 times a week for the rest of the season, so check back early and often and tell your friends to do the same!

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Another Big But

It was great to see the Pats perform well in all three phases of Sunday's game BUT it is hard to get too excited about it because it was the Texans afterall. David Carr stunk, Andre Johnson didn't come to play and they kept feeding the Pats the ball on turnovers. When was the last time the Pats won a game in the first quarter? See what happens when you actually use the screen play? That game is over and, like the Pats are doing, we should look forward.

First, good riddance to Ken Walter who was place on IR. It looks like they've signed a rookie punter to the practice squad to compete for the job with the current practice squad punter. How's that for best job around sports? Practice squad punter. The minimum salary for a practice squad guy is $79,900. Not bad. No running, no tackling, just show up and make a few kicks for 5 months, where do I sign up? I mean, I can almost kick it as far as Walter could.

A glance at the playoff picture shows a bleak outlook.

If the playoffs started this week, the Pats would host Denver and Cincy would go to Baltimore with SD and Indy as the 1 and 2 seeds. IF all the seedings hold true, the Pats would have to beat Denver at home, win AT san diego then win AT indy. Good luck with that road to the superbowl. Sounds more like road to one and done to me. On a more positive note, a Doc that I work with that is a huge cowboys fan was saying that the Pats will go to the superbowl. I told him he's nuts, but here are his reasons:
-Brady and Belichick are winners and give the Pats a chance in any game.
-They consistantly stop the run and have a good D in general
-They have a 'shutdown' corner in Samuel (I refuted that one)
-They have the ability to run the ball.

I suppose one could argue for or against any of those reasons. I'm still a bit pessimistic about their chances this year.

The Pro Bowl balloting is a big farce. No one that has watched any football can possibly say that Seymour money is having a better year than Ty Warren. I'm sure the Pats thought they should have had more than one representative in Honalulu. They feel like they've been disrespected and that has only worked to their advantage in the past. Let's hope it can carry them into February.

As for NEXT season...(is that looking too far ahead?)...it's not pretty.

Their divisional rotation puts them up against the AFC North and the NFC East.
So every team in their division plays the entire AFC Northe and NFC East.

Their standings matchups are against the AFC West and the AFC South. So if the Pats finish first, which they will, they'll play #1 from each of those divisions, INDY and SD.

Not to mention home and away vs Miami Buffalo Jets.

Here's what it's projected to be: (remember you heard it here first)

HOME: Cleveland, Pitt, Philly, Wash, SD, Jets, Miami, Bills

AWAY: Baltimore, Cincy, Dallas, Giants, Indy, Jets, Miami, Bills

I see about 5 games that they'll definitely win and quite possibly an 8-8 season.

On the other hand, the Pats will be 30 million under the cap and have 2 first-round picks, so they SHOULD be able to improve their team dramatically. Here are some suggestions to Mr Pioli and Mr Belichick from your humble blogger.

-re-sign Graham and Izzo
-let Asante go for his 10 mill.

Go after and SIGN:
-CB Nate Clements from Buffalo,
-LB Lance Briggs from Chicago or LB/DE Adelius Thomas from Baltimore
-WR Wes Welker to return kicks and take over as the slot receiver
-S Ken Hamlin from Seattle.
Now you are a younger, faster defense with 4 Playmakers added to the team.

Use the two first round picks on:
-WR Johnnie Lee Higgins, UTEP
In 11 games this season he only had 82 catches and 1300+ yds and 13 TDs. Did I mention he runs a 4.3 in the 40, has terrific hands and plays with his heart on his sleeve?

-Marcus McCauley, Freson St. 6'1 205; 4.35 in the 40.
A "system" fit from Fresno, can play zone or man and is great in run support.

I'd be pretty excited about THAT teams chances against the '07 schedule. But what do I know?

Let's hope that the Pats take care of business in Jacksonville and clinch the division THIS week. Doing so would allow Belichick to rest anyone that's banged up in the last game against the Titans, essentially creating their own bye week. Then hosting what will most likely be the JETS in the first round of the playoffs. I don't want our playoff chances to rest on having to beat Vince Young and the Titans @Tennessee, as the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QB's. Believe me, the Pats have no one on D that can run with Young. Let's wory about that bridge when/if we get there.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Where Do We Go From Here?

Thanks for cathcing the Radiohead referrence.

Where DO the Pats go from here? I mean, releasing Doug Gabriel is not the answer. I really hope he talks because I'd love to know what the hell happened there. Is it too early to start looking at next season? I don't think this team can win the superbowl, do you? That being said, there isn't a team out there that you'd say the Pats couldn't possibly beat. While San Diego is probably the best team right now, the Pats have done well against the run this season and Bellichick has a knack for confusing young QB's. So where do we go from here? Let's start with the Miami game.

The two biggest reasons I saw that cost the Pats the game were (surprise surprise) Josh McDaniels and Murphy's Law.
Do I really need to keep telling you what's wrong with Joshy? The Dolphins D did exactly what the world expected them to, press coverage on the corners and rush the passer. The running game seemed to me that it was working. That is until, once again, it was completely abandoned by Joshy. Hey, have you guys ever heard of this Jason Taylor guy? Evidently Joshy has no idea who he is. Come on Joshy, the guy is pounding Brady into the turf on every pass play and you keep trying to block him one on one? As I've said many times before, stop the pass rush with screens and draws. This weeks total? 1 screen, 0 draws. I will give him credit for the horribly executed double pass for a TD.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong, Murphy's Law. Three punts downed inside the 10, rediculous phantom calls agains the Pats, a fluke TD pass that went through Hawkins hands and on and on.
Of honorable mention for costing the Pats the game is Ken Walter. You CAN NOT tell me that there is no one out there that can kick more than 30 yards.

Looking the rest of the way the Pats have 3 games they should win, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lose two more games. Here's how to look at it now. Thanks to a Jets loss, they've pretty much locked up the division and the #4 seed. It's nearly impossible for them to move up or down from there. Therefore, how this team comes together and executes the rest of the was is more impotant than actaul wins. So what if Vince Young pulls out another miracle come back and beats the Pats, did they do some good things? The last three games are more of a dress rehearsal to work on fixing the holes as best they can before the playoffs begin.

The Playoff Picture
1) SD 2) Indy 3) Balt 4) NE 5) Cincy 6) Jax (Jets, KC and Denver are one game out)

You're right Krager, I dont want to go to this week's game either. And I wouldn't except that I have been fortunate enough to have an invitation to watch the game from a luxury box. I'll be sure to tell all next week!

As soon as I figure out how to set it up, I'll have the "sign up to receive notification of Posts" thingy posted. Can you tell I'm not tech savy?

Friday, December 08, 2006

Playoff Picture and MORE!

With four games to go in the regular season, this weekends games will have a huge impact on the playoff race and seedings. There are more key match-ups this week than in the last three, so by Monday we'll have a good idea of where the Pats will end up. If the season were to end today, the Pats would host the Bengals on wild card weekend. The other game would be The Jets at Ravens. Indy is still the #1 and SD is 2nd seed. Here are the key games this weekend:

Indy @ Jax. Two straight losses for Indy is highly unlikely and it probably won't make much of a difference to the Pats anyway unless Indy ends up with 4 losses (they have 2 now) . ndy has the head to head as well as conference record tie breakers over the Pats, but who wouldn't want to see Peyton lose again?

Baltimore @ KC Go Herm Edwards. A win for KC would be HUGE for the Pats. Baltimore would have 3 losses and be tied with NE for the 3rd playoff seed. They don't play head to head, and they would both be 6-3 in the conference. I think the next tie breaker is record vs common opponents. I haven't looked THAT far - yet.

Denver @ SD A must win for Denver, tough SD is now vying for the #1 seed with Indy. The Bolts have 2 more 'losable' games after this one and it will take 2 losses for the Pats to be leapfrog them for the #2 seed. This is the biggest game for the Pats this week besides their own.


Speaking of ther own game at Miami, I really like their chances of winning in this game for two reasons. First, a lot of the local media are picking Miami in this game and that ALWAYS motivates the Pats. They just have that knack for winning games that you just don't think they'll win and this game is a prime example. Second, they really sucked last week and it is very rare that this team goes aout and lays an egg two weeks in a row. We'll see how they gameplan for this one knowing that Maroney will likely play sparingly if at all.

The Pats have had success on the road this season and it's because they've gotten out to early leads. With the possibility of Maroney being out, it might be a wise choice for the Pats to come out with the 2 minute offense to start the game. You know, the one that scored on 3 of 4 posessions last week? That would have scored on 4 of 4 if not for the Watson fumble? Spread'em out and pass, run some draws to Faulk to keep the D honest and get an early lead. Miami probably has to rely on the passing game anyway because Ronnie Brown will be out with a broken hand. Harrington will turn it over in this game, especially if they fall behind early and have to pass 80% of the time.

Did you hear me Joshy? 2 minute offense to start the game! Get the lead and then worry about running.

Pats 31 'Fins 10

Loose ends:

I realize that I have not stuck to my plan of a Wednesday posting and have been erratic with the posting schedule. IF I used one of those "notify you when I post" things would that be helpful to you guys or would you not even bother to sign up for it?

Note to Krager, you got your wish. For some reason I forgot that the Browns were playing the Steelers on Thursday night, how could THAT have happened? So I missed the deadline for our pick'em league. You're not welcome.

Monday, December 04, 2006

That's Just Not Going to Cut it.

Garbage. That's what the Patriots played like yesterday. You do NOT 'just show up' and expect to win in the NFL, even against a team as bad as Detroit. Actually, I think Ohio State would probably beat the Lions. They might even be more deserving of the chance than FLorida, but I digress.

One has to wonder what Belichick will do to the team this week. Evidently he had them in full pads and hitting all last week as well as (according to Brady) giving them their toughtest mental day of the year so far on Wednesday. So what does Bill have up his sleeve for this week? Swimming with sharks? Competing in a triathlon? Listening to more Bon Jovi? Whatever it is I have NO sympathy for this team, I hope he beats the piss out of 'em, they deserve it. On with my questions...

Who's the best player in the NFL?
Once again, Tom Brady showed why he is the best player in the NFL. 14-15 passing in the 4th quarter for 15 points. It should have been three scores, but Watson fumbled again while the Pats were about to take another one in. (I heard a radio guy call Watson the new Faulk because everytime he touches it you say JUST HOLD ON TO IT. Good point.)

What was with the gameplan anyway?
Did it seem like the whole game was predicated on Maroney? Because once he went out the Offense had that, "now what do we do" look to it. It took my best friend Joshy until the fourth quarter and trailing by 8 points to adjust to the loss of Maroney. By the way, it only took FOX until the fourth quarter to mention that Maroney wasn't in the game.

Did you crap yourself (too) when Vrabel went down?

How nice was it to FINALLY see Gabriel have a catch?

Who is the most over-rated player on the Pats?
Asante Samuel. They raved about his INT before they pointed out that it was just a great defensive call and that any DB could make that play. But they said NOTHING about the poor coverage he had in the end zone on Detriot's only TD.

Does anyone really miss Deion Branch?
It is obvious that Caldwell has established himself as a guy that Brady has a ton of confidence in. Seattle paid $7 mill per for Deion's 38 catches and 4 TD's, not to mention the #1 pick. Caldwell has 46 and 3TD's and will make $585,000 this season. A team could buy 6 Caldwells for the price of a Branch. Let's see where the seahawks are in 2 seasons.

If you are curious to see what all the Pats make I would refer you to Miguels page: http://www.patscap.com/

Back with more on the playoff Picture on Wednesday.....