Friday, April 07, 2006

More on '06 Schedule and signings

Evidently Bill Belichick is most concerned about his special teams. They certainly were an area of weakness last season as opposed to the superbowl years when they had an advantage over every other team in the league. The signings of Mel Mitchel and Tubucky Jones were not made in case Rodney can't come back right away. They were signed strictly to play special teams, where both excel. They have also brought in DE Kemp Rasmussen from Carolina for an interview. He is also considered a stand out on special teams. Oh and there's the signing of Martin Gramatica.

Martin Gramatica, formerly of the TB Bucs when they won the superbowl used to be called "Automatica" until he injured himself and fell off the face of the earth. Evidently, the injury was mis-diagnosed and therefore he never re-gained his form. He has since had surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle and should be good to go come training camp. IF he returns to form, this could be the best deal Belichick makes in the off-season. Obviously, the odds are against it, but you never know. The Pats have also sent special teams coach Brad Seely on a road trip to visit the top 3 kickers coming out in the draft. Look for Gramatica to be competing with a rookie and perhaps another veteran kicker in training camp. Bill and Scott like to create competition in camp and I can't see why that would change at Kicker.

Just to throw this out there, many of the Pats beat writers are still murmering about a big trade. No one knows who it wil be, but the concensus is that there WILL be a trade to move a bigtime player to Foxborough. I really don't expect a trade, but they've done it in the past. (Corey Dillon)

On to the schedule.
One local sports host suggested that Kraft should get Hostess to sponsor this years schedule implying the Pats are playing a bunch of cup cake games. One writer said the team doesn't need to get better than last year in order to win the division against this schedule. It's April, there's been no draft yet, and there is still plenty of free agent action (and trades?), so it is way too hard to judge how difficult the schedule will be. HOWEVER:

Unless we have another disasterous year on the injury front, there is NO WAY this team does worse than 12-4. I believe that 14-2 or 15-1 is more likely than 11-5 is. Why? Let's look game by game.

Buffalo is in turmoil, Pats will win both games v. Bills

Jets are in the midst of a major overhaul and the Pats will beat them twice.

Denver comes HERE. Pats have a revenge factor, and Denver will be coming off a tough division game against KC.

@Cincy. Palmer ripped his knee up in JANUARY, I don't thinkhe'll be back and Kitna is gone.

Miami I would normally call a split, each team winning the home game, BUT the week before the Pats go to Miami, Miami plays Jax - a team that tries to physically beat you up. I'd say the Pats have a fair chance to win in Miami this year.

@ Minnesota. New coach, boat scandal, no Culpepper, no defense, no chance v. the Pats onMonday night.

INDY. The most hyped game of the year and MAYBE the only loss ofthe season. It would be totally gratifiying to see Vinatieri line one up to win it and kick it wide right, or better yet, short. Here's why I think the Pats win this one: a) Indy had better have drafted a great rookie RB or they'll be one-dimensional and Belichick will eat them alive. b) In the two weeks leading up to this game, Indy plays a solid Washington team and the plays AT Denver before coming to Foxborough. You gotta like our chances.

@GB Farve throws 6 picks, Pats roll.

Chicago. This one could be 10-9 or 6-3 and could go either way. This is a good game for them to lose because its v. and NFC team and won't effect tie breakers. However, It will be Chicago's THIRD road game in row. Go look at teams records when they have to play back to back on the road, never mind 3 in a row. (NY, NY, NE) AND quite conceivably another W.

Detroit. enough said

Houston. enough said but it'll be fun to watch Reggie Bush.

@ Jax. They've got a little revenge factor against the Pats after being humiliated on national TV in the playoffs last year. BUT the Jags schedule is KILLER and they'll probably be out of the playoff picture by week 16 and have nothing to play for. (Dallas, Pitt, @ Indy, @Wash, Jets, BYE, @Houston, @ Philly. That's a TOUGH 8 weeks)

@ Tennesee. Who's gonna play QB? They'll be out of playoff contention and may be starting Matt Leinart for the 1st or 2nd time. Mandisa is already warming up. (the fat lady sings)

That's my 'glass is half full' look at the 2006 schedule. Can YOU conceive of a way a healthy Pats team loses more than 4 games?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good analysis Tom. The Pats remain the class of the NFL but I believe there's always a game or two per year where they're going to just give one away ( e.g. Denver last year) or flat out get beat by an inferior team ( e.g. Washington 2 years ago).
Worst case; 12-4, counting these two 'bad' games
Best case; 16-0, and my theory is goes out the window!

CJ said...

I don't think there's any way the pats would go any worse than 12-4, BUT I also never thought that Johnny would sign with the Yankees or Adam would go to the Colts!