It's Never Too Early...

Hindsight is always 20/20. I feel like an idiot because I didn't see it coming. The leagues #1 rush defense vs the Pats 2 headed rushing attack, right? It's so obvious now, attack through the air instead of banging your head against a wall. Dee Dee Dee, as Carlos Mencia would say. Great gameplan, terrific execution, but I still can't help but wonder if Minnesota was over-hyped. I mean, the only team they beat was Seattle without Hasselback and Alexander. Either way, Bellichick showed his mastery as he completely out-coached Brad Childress. It was another win and it puts the Pats in the drivers seat for playoff positioning. It's never too early to talk playoffs around here, right?

As the most casual pigskin fans know, the odds of reaching the superbowl quadruple as a #1 or 2 seed vs. a 3, 4, 5 or 6 seed. Last year being the exception of course. So the goal is always get to the playoffs, but if you can lock up a 1 or 2 you're in serious contention. With the win this week the Pats are now 6-1 and in that coveted #2 spot. Defeating Indy this week would make them #1 in the AFC, with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Unfortunately, the playoffs don't start after the Indy game. While it would be great to have the #1 seed entering the playoffs, I simply don't see it happening - whether or not they beat the Colts this weekend. That being said, if the Colts beat the Pats this week, the Pats have NO chance at #1. Let's take a look at who's contending for the top 2 spots and their "losable" games the rest of the way:

INDY 7-0 home v. Cincy and Philly, @NE, @Dallas.

PATS 6-1 home v. Indy and Chicago

DENVER 5-2 SD twice, home to Seattle Cincy then @KC and Pitt

SAN DIEGO 5-2 Denver twice, KC at home then @Cincy and Seattle

RAVENS 5-2 Cincy and Pitt twice home v. Atlanta and @ KC

So MAYBE Indy loses 2 games the rest of the way, more than likely it'll be one.

The Pats would have to win every game the rest of the way, in which case they'd be 15-1, and the #1 seed by virtue of winning the head to head game with INDY. Sorry, it's too much to ask.
Pats will be 14 and 2, or at worst 13-3. AND therefore, the #2 seed.

The rest have virtually no shot at the #2 seed.

While Denver has the head t head tie breaker with the Pats, they already have one more loss than NE. With 2 to play with SD, @ a surging KC as well as CINCY and SEATTLE both of which will be fighing for their playoff lives. Should the Pats go 13-3 Denver has an outside chance to become the #2. But I can't see Denver only losing one more time.

San Diego is in a bit of turmoil with their star player suspended for 4 games. Their remaining schedule is almost identical to Denver's. Same scenario, they're going to lose more than one more game.

I give an outside chance to Baltimore even though I think their offense stinks. However, they'd have to sweep both games with Pitt and both games with Cincy. That doesn't usually happen in that division.

The conclusion is that, even losing to Indy and Chicago this month, the Pats will probably still earn the #2 seed as long as the win their "easy" games. That being said, even if the beat Indy this week, it's hard to see Indy losing a second time and the Pats would probably still get the #2 seed. I like the Pats chances at INDY for a superbowl berth. Who's better than Brady's 10-0 in domes?



Offensive stat of the week: Pats are #1 in the NFL in redzone TD % at 64.3%.
Defensive stat of the week: Pats are now 3rd in the NFL in points allowed behind Chicago and Denver.

So what about Indy this week?
If I couldn't see the answer last week, what makes you think I'll figure out this week's gameplan? Here's the semi-educated guess:

The Pats will be able to run (Indy's last in the league agianst the run). It just so happens that Indy's starting safeties are injured and probably won't play. Once the run is established, the Pats will control the game with play action. The untested, backup safeties will bite on the run and you'll see Ben Watson and Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson over the top for big gains. Indys D will have no answer and the Pats will put up 35-40 points this week. Clock killin' Corey Dillon will come in and pound Indy in the fourth, eat up the clock and not give Indy the ball with 1:30 left like denver did.

The big question is how will the Pats D contain Indy? Belichick won't tell us, so we're going to have to wait and see. I do think the Pats will hold them to under 30 points even though the Pats D hasn't been tested like this before. I don't think this game will be a 'whoever has the ball last wins' type. The Pats win this one "running" away, same score as Indy beat them last year.
New England 40, Indy 21. The Patriots franchise just has that kind of karma.

Call me a homer, but tell your friends you heard it hear!