Pats vs Saints Preview

Once again we have to ask what the guys in Vegas know that we don't know. The Pats are favored by 10 points over the Aints this week. I'll take the Saints and the points, thank you. While I think the Pats will/should win, all I can find are reasons why the Saints should win this game.

1. The Pats are at home, where the crowds have been silent and the Saints over the last two seasons are better on the road than they've been at home.

2. Joe Horn and Dante Stallworth are legit deep threats. They must be salivating over the Pats secondary.

3. Mobile quarterback and Mike Vick's cousin, Arron Brooks. This will come into play on 3rd down convertions. The Pats D is horrible on 3rd down, now factor in a QB that can run for it IF the receivers are covered. Bad news.

4. The Saints are 31st against the run. So we can expect Heath Evans to go for 100yds this week?

5. The Saints D is 5th against the Pass, 4th in sacks and 3rd in INT's.

6. The Saints are good against the pass because their D-line is great at generating a pass rush with just 4 rushers. (Watch for Wil Smith) With a 4 man rush, they can cover with 7.

7. The Saints are coming off their bye week.

8. The Saints are out of it and have nothing to play for. Playing the defending super bowl champs is the super bowl for them this year. They'll be fired up.

9. Does Antwan Smith have something to prove to his old team?

10. I would have made this a top ten list had I thought of a 10th reason.

It appears to me that the Pats MUST be able to run the ball in order to win. Heath Evans will probably have 100 yds if the Pats win. Either that, or they come out and score early and let the Saints pack it in.

My pick: Pats 24-20

NOTES:

Patrick Pass has been practicing this week. It will be interesting to see if Belichick is willing to play him after his horrendous fumble vs. Bills.

Matt Light and Kevin Faulk are now both listed as questionable. Both had been listed as OUT for the last several weeks.

The Pats spent the majority of Thursdays practice working on 3rd down situations.

Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards with 2,560. At his current pace he will throw for a total of 4551 yds, just 4 behind the Franchise record of 4555 set by Bledsoe in 1994.

If Brady maintains his QB rating of 94.9 he will break the franchise record of 93.4 currently held by Tony Eason since 1984.

Enjoy the game, it should be another good one.

Help Troy Brown

Troy Brown is giving up his 2 club seats for this Sunday's game vs New Orleans to help the victims of the hurricanes in the Gulf Coast. For your chance to win visit www.netraffle.com today! The deadline is Friday @9AM.

Tickets are only $2.00 each but you have to buy 5 tix.

The grand prize winner will receive:

Troy Brown's 2 club seats for this weeks game,
round trip limo to Foxborough,
a football autograhed by the team,
2 passes to the Patriots after game party as Troy's guests (bring your camera!)

This humble blogger would be happy to attend with you should you win.

P.S.
Entering is easy, it took about 3 minutes. If you go to the site, you'll notice some other pretty cool raffles such as 2 tix for the sox opening day and a day of golf with Ray Bourque.
and I'm not going to tell you how many tix I bought for Troy Browns seats.

Mid-week Notes

If you haven't already heard, the Pats lost 2 more players to the injured reserve list this week. Center Dan Koppen with a seperated shoulder and CB Randall Gay with a high ankle sprain with possible ligament damage are the two latest victims. To replace their roster spots the team has signed former Patriot lineman Gene Mruczkowski and CB Artrell Hawkins who played 8 seasons with the Bengals before being released last off season. The total number of Patriots on IR is now 9.

In my opinion, I almost wish they would tank the season, miss the playoffs, and get a better draft pick. We may have been spoiled with our superbowls, but I don't even want to make the playoffs knowing that we don't have a chance to win it all this year. The BEST thing that can come out of this season is a healthy Brady. He took a beating in Miami, and that's certainly not the only game he got his ass kicked. I say start Flutie, let the rookies and younger players gain experience and get a better draft pick. Unfortunately, that will never happen. They'll continue to play Brady in front of a patchwork O-Line and hope that he stays upright. They'll win the division, host a first round game vs Cincy or San Diego or J'ville. Maybe they win that game, MAYBE. Then they'll be on to Indy and the end of the season. IF they happen to win that then they'd have to go to DENVER. It's just not going to happen this year, so in my opinion they should just start preping for next season.

Here are some stats:

Troy Brown has 499 career receptions. He will become only the second player in Patriots history to total 500 receptions. (Stanley Morgan 534)

The Pats are still 2nd in the League with 275.5 passing yds/game.

Deion Branch is 3rd inthe league with 13.4 yds/catch. He currently has 50 catches this season, his career high is 57 in 2003.

Josh Miller is 4th in net punt average at 39.6 yds. For my money he's the best kicker in the game because of his uncanny ability to down punts inside the 10 yard line. The fact that he is the funniest guy on the team doesn't hurt either. If you get a chance to see a Josh Miller interview, watch it.

The Pats are 10th in Red Zone offense with 17 TD's and 8FG in 29 trips.

The Patriots have a grand total of 13 sacks this year, 31st in the league. In their 4 losses they have a total of 2 sacks.

The Saints are a -13 in giveaway/takeaway. They have 27 giveaways.

For those of you grumbling that the Patriots scored their go ahead 4th quarter TD too soon leaving Miami time instead of killing the clock, Tom Brady explained. He said the play call was for a short pass over the middle, getting vinatieri closer and getting down to the two minute warning. When Brady got to the line, he read the Miami D to be in an all out Blitz. He knew he'd have Watson in single coverage on the outside. Watson read the blitz and changed his route accordingly. As you all know, Brady hit Watson for the TD, but it was because Miami's D dictated the audible.

Baby Steps

The Pats are slowly making progress to be a formidable opponent in the playoffs. This secondary should be playing together the rest of the way and will gel a bit better. Randall Gay's ankle will heal (hopefully). Bruschi is already changing games. Seymour money is healthy (for now) and they did a good job applying pressure on the passer and stopping the run. I realize that at times Ferrotte looked like Marino out there, but the end result was a win and a lot of possitives to build on.

Once again it wasn't pretty but the Pats found a way to win in a hostile environment. Somehow watching this game I felt like the Pats were going to win. I never had one of those, "they're gonna lose" moments. Though I thought that they left TOO much time on the clock after the game winning score.

There were two plays that stood out to me as most important in todays game. First was the Tedy Bruschi pass deflection at the goal line. Ferrotte had Welker wide open on a slant in the endzone when Bruschi came flying over to tip the all away. Mare went on to miss the field goal so no points were scored. It was the FIRST time this season that a New England opponent got in the red zone and didn't score. The second big play is one that gives me hope for this defense. After a long catch by McMichael, Colvin stripped him of the ball and the fumble was recovered by Ellis Hobbs. Typical of the championship defenses, bend and don't break, get the turnover at the key situation.

Speaking of Hobbs! I felt that he played a terrific game in his first NFL start. Yes, he was out of place on a couple of occassions, but hey rookie's will do that. He was good in coverage, he supported the run well and what great coverage on the goal line in one on one coverage at the end of the game. I'd also like to give mention to Heath Evans - great game.

It seems like I have praise for Tom Brady all the time, so if you think I'm finally going to get on his case for those two bad interceptions you're dead wrong. Brady actually came out in his press conference and said that the Offense deserves props for doing what they did today. Think about it, Brady is telling the truth, he is out there with:
NO #1 Left Tackle
NO #1 Right Tackle
NO #1 Tight End
NO #1 Center
NO #1 Running Back
NO #2 Running Back
NO #3 Running Back
NO #2 Wide Receiver
He had a tired Troy Brown that had to play Defense, a terrible Bethel Johnson, a useless Andre Johnson, he was on the road at a place where he had a nightmarish game last season, against an immense pass rush, taking many hits, in a very loud staium.

He only went 21 of 36 for 275 yards and for the 21st time in his career, a game winning 4th quarter drive. I don't know how he'll go down in history, but I for one make sure that I enjoy every moment of his performances.

Looking ahead, I REALLY don't like the New Orleans matchup.....

Notes and the Dolphins

Belichick and Dolphins coach Nick Saban have quite a history together. Saban was Belichick's defensive coordinator in Cleveland before moving on to coach Michigan St and LSU. There is no surprise then, when we look at the number of Patriots from LSU. Saban gave Belichick the scoop on several college players, mostly from the ACC and especially from LSU. The greatest example of this is undrafted CB Randall Gay. Saban specifidally called Belichick after the 2004 draft to let him know that Gay was a player. Shortly after he was signed to a free agent contract and the rest is history. For the last 5 offseasons prior to Saban going to the Dolphins, Belichick and Saban spent varying amounts of time locked away together critiqing each others game films. The fact that nobody knows Belichick's X's and O's better than Saban and vice versa makes Sunday's game all the more interesting.

Missing practice on Thursday wereWarren, Graham, Gay, Ashworth and of course, Seymour money.

ESPN's power rankings for this week:
Colts
Broncos
Pitt
Atlanta
Carolina
and the Pats at #14.

Here is a look at the 7 different starting secondary's the Pats have had to use in 8 games:

game 1 Samuel-Poole-Harrison-Wilson
game 2 Samuel-Gay-Harrison WIlson
game 3 Samuel-Starks-Harrison-Wilson
game 4 Samuel-Starks-GScott-Wilson
game 5 Samuel-Starks-GScott-Wilson
game 6 Samuel-Starks-Sanders-Wilson
game 7 Samuel-Starks-Freeman-Wilson
game 8 Samuel-Starks-Gay-Wilson
game 9 ? Benoit-Chase-Scieszka-Neves?
Seriously, game 9 might be Samuel-Poteat-Stone-Wilson


With one roster spot open, the Pats have worked out Defensive Backs: Rod Babers, Aaron Beasley, Terrell Buckley, and Mario Edwards. They may opt for Ray Ventrone from the practice squad.


Looking at Sunday's game, again it is hard to pick the Pats to win AT Miami.
The Pats went 14-2 last year and lost at Miami, remember? The year before when they went 14-2, it took a blocked FG and an 80 yard bomb in overtime to Troy Brown. (who?)
The Pats are weak up the middle against the run and Miami has 2 backs that they can pound up the middle in Ronnie Brown and Smokey Williams. There is no better remedy for an offense that struggles to throw (Miami) than a terrible secondary. Do you know of a terrible secondary? I do. (Samuel Poteat Stone Wilson)
The game will probably be won or lost on first down however. The Pats D is last in the league in yards allowed on first down. The Dolphins O is 7th in yards gained on first down. With Miami's good running game and a poor passing game, it will be imperative for the Pats to keep them in 3rd and long situations if they want to win this one.

I'm looking for the Pats to win by loading up the line of scrimmage and stopping the run. Pats 16-10.

wow

This picture of Belichick pretty much says it all.

Go ahead, post your comments. Let it all out, I'm sure you all need a place to vent after last night.

I think it's safe to say that right now the Pats aren't even in contention for the superbowl. Like I've said before, its a lot like 2002. The league caught up to them then, and they have now. Part of it is injuries, and part of it is the failure to secure impact players in the off season. It is becoming obvious that this team has no heart, no emotion and no fire. Brady and Brown are on record as saying so. In addition, there isn't that force in the locker room anymore that was Bryan Cox in 2001 and has been Harrison since 2003. Those are guys you have to answer to when you come out flat or start to alter from the system. guys that make you drink the cool aid and if you don't work your but off they'd get on your case. It is missing since Harrison went down and it was missing in the 2002 season. This next off season may be an off season of HUGE turnover for the Pats. (Rumor's are starting that the locker room is divided and some guys aren't running with the system anymore.)I'll get into that when the time comes, as for now, we have a division to win and a short playoff run to enjoy.

I hope you all got to see Tom Brady on 60 minutes on Sunday. He is the true definition of a role model.

Cut That Meat! Cut That Meat!

It will be hard to stop Indy's biggest fan of Butchers (Manning) this week if nobody decides to play. Here is the latest on the injuries going into tomorrow night's game:

CB Ellis Hobbs was added to the Injured list as questionable. This 'hurts' because he has some experience playing saftely in college and many had him penciled in to start next to Wilson this week.

Players who did NOT practice on Friday: Dillon, Pass, Gay, and Seymour money.

The Pats secondary is now left with Samuel Starks Gay Hobbs and Poteat at CB and for Safeties they have Wilson, Sanders, Stone and Don Davis.
(Can you say Troy Brown?)

What the F is wrong with Seymour money!?!?! A knee sprain 5 weeks ago! The MF needs to suck it up, be a leader, be there NOW when the team needs him most-like a captain should. But no, he refuses to play at less than 100%, because he's not as effective. (just like one Ty Poole) F U Seymour. PLEASE, PLEASE Bill and Scott, trade Seymour's ass this off-season like this Blogger recommended when he held out of camp for more money. I'll re-iterate, send him to San Francisco for 2 #1 picks.

Congrats to Charlie Wies on another big win this week and for the HUGE contract extention. 10 years and between $35-40 milllion. Charlie is now THE highest paid coach in college football. It took 7 games, 2 of whcih were losses.

Whatever I Could Find to Share

The previous post was loaded with stats, so lets look at some facts and possibilities. While most of the stats favor Indy, it gets even scarier for the Pats fan if you consider some of the matchups this game presents. First and foremost, Dwight Freeney against Logan Mankins. Yikes. How about Dwayne Starks trying to cover Marvin Harrison? I don't even want to think about that one.

Here is the Pats injury list:
Light - out
Faulk - out

Questionable:
Brown, Dillon, Dwight, Gay, Givens, Green, Hill, McGinest, Pass, Sanders, Seymour, Warren and Watson.

As always, Tom Brady is probable.

It appears that the Pats have signed RB Mike Cloud, as there is official word from Foxborough. In the last 7-10 days the Pats have worked out RB's Olandis Gary, Erik Bickerstaff, Quentin Griffin (can you say wizzenator?), Charlie Garner, and Anthony Thomas. Maybe they should have held on to Kory Chapman or Cedric Cobbs. Evidently Zeroue couldn't figure out when and who to block, that's why he got cut. To make room for Cloud, the Pats cut Arturo Freeman of all people. Who the hell is going to play Safety this week?

The national know-it-alls are calling it now or never for the Colts. Everything is stacked in the Colts favor and if they can't beat the Pats in NE this week, they'll never have a better opportunity. The Colts opponents have 'Belichicked' Manning, playing similar defenses to what the Pats have always used to slow the Colts O. Manning has had lots of practice against a Patriots-like scheme and that has led to James' MVP first half of the season. The Colts D, however, has not faced an offense anything like what the Pats can be when they come to play. It will be the first true test for their D. Looks to me like this one will be a shoot out.

ESPN Power Rankings:

1Colts
2Pitt('Berger is out at least 2 weeks and they are #2.)
3Broncos (sure, if they're playing at HOME)
4falcons (I will never understand this)
5seahaks (sure, if they're playing at HOME)
6Giants
7Bengals
8Panthers
9Pats
10 Bolts

These guys never fail to baffle me. Pats are WAY below Pitt and Atlanta, both of whom they beat on the road, but they are ahead of the Chargers who beat the Pats in NE. (rock paper siscors?)

To answer everyone's question, YES I think the Pats can win. Do I like their chances? not really. The thing about this team has always been that when you write them off, when you give them no chance to win, they play their best. We haven't seen that from this year's team so it's hard to believe that they'll pull it off. Here's what it'll take:

1. Win the turnover battle. If turnovers are even, Pats lose.

2. Brady will have to be on fire. It doesn't appear that the D will hold up, so
Tom will have to outscore Indy and convert on 3rd down.

3. Get a lead and run Dillon into the ground. Keep Peyton on the bench.

4. Win the field position battle with special teams.

5. Have the ball last. If it becomes a shoot out, whoever has it last wins.

It's going to take their best game to win this week. Since they have yet to put it all together in one game so far, the odds are pretty good that they're due for a good game. If I have to bet, I'd take NE and the points, but there is just way too much stacked against this years team to win this one. So as much as I'd like to see the Pats win, I'm picking Indy: 31-30.

Mid-week Notes

This week's game is huge for the Pats, not necessarily in terms of where they stand with the Colts, but where they stand in the AFC. At 7-0 and a pussycat schedule, the Colts will get the #1 seed in the AFC even if the Pats win the rest of their games. We should all be keeping our eyes on that all imprtant #2 seed - and the bye week that comes with it. If the Pats are to have any chance of threepeating, they're gonna need a first round bye and home field in round 2. In that scenario, they'd have to win a game at home (v. Pitt or Denver or SD or KC or Cincy) then go to Indy to play for the right to beat the NFC representative in the SB. If they get seed 3 or 4 (they can't do worse than 3or4 by winning the division) then they'd host a wild card game in round 1, go on the road in round 2, then go to Indy, just to get to the SB. I think that is way too much to ask of this years team. It is still tough with the bye, but certainly more reasonable. Consider that 86% of SB winners since this playoff format was developed have been a #1 or #2 seed with a first round bye.

Here's how the AFC currenty shakes out:
Colts 7-0
Cincy 6-2
Denver 6-2 (beat us head to head, so they win a tie breaker)
Pittsburgh 5-2
PATS 4-3
KC 4-3
Jax 4-3
SD 4-4
It's definitely an uphill climb to the #2 spot.


Some stats:

Brady has thrown for 2020 yds to Manning's 1551.
James has nearly doubled the rushing output of Dillon 801-401

The Pats are 26th in overall Defense, Indy is 4th
The Pats are 5th in overall Offense, Indy is 9th.

The Pats have scored 159 pts and given up 180. YIKES!
The Colts have scored 189 pts and given up 77.

While Dwight Freeney gets the headlines, he is second on the Colts with 6 sacks. Robert Mathis, the OTHER starting DE leads the league with 8 sacks.

So what makes you feel good about this game if you are a Pats fan? Hard to tell with this years team. I believe that they have two major factors in their favor. First, they've always been a team that relishes the underdog role. They love the 'nobody thought we could do it' line. This game HAS to be their statement game. Everyone has anointed the Colts as the SB champs, and it's time for the Pats to step up and show everyone that they're still the team to beat in the AFC. If this team has any pride at all, this will be their best game of the season, win or lose. Second, the team that actually came the closest to beating the Colts was Romeo Crennel's Browns. They held Indy to 13 points - AT Indy. Belichick is on record as using that game as the basis for his gameplanning this week. Have you ever been golfing and you have a putt that you're just not sure if it'll go left or right, but the guy you're playing with is just inside your ball so he putts first? You watch what line he takes, you watch what his ball does and learn how the putt is going to break. Romeo just missed his putt, Belichick is now lining up his putt.

Some smaller favorable factors to consider:
Is Belichick in Manning's head?
Pats are 6-0 v Colts since 2001.
Pats are home. (hope the crowd doesn't sit on their hands again)
An over-rated Colts D hasn't faced a top 15 offense all year.

On the injury front, Seymour money, Dillon, Pass, Sanders and Warren all sat out practice on Tuesday. Gay and Troy Brown returned to practice.

Tedy Bruschi won NFL Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Belichick when asked how to stop Freeney: "Put a ball and chain on him, that would slow him down."

More to come on Friday, though I'm not sure I want to make any more predictions about this team. I've lost some of my confidence in them after last week, but this week could do a lot to renew my spirit.

Well it Wasn't Pretty

It certainly wasn't pretty, but the Pats found a way to win just as they have in championship years past. I found it frightening how the Pats could come out with no emotion, no fire, no desire given the circumstances surrounding the game. If they come out like that this week they'll be down 31-0 at the half instead of 3-0.

While the play of the game was Colvin's stripsack, and Bruschi was outstanding in his return, the Player of the game had to be Asante Samuel. He is the ONLY guy that looked fired up, the only guy that played steady D and he had a few plays that helped to turn the momentum of the game. Overall, if you take away the one, bonehead, 55 yd TD, the Defense was what a Belichick D is supposed to be. Bend, don't break; give up yards, not points. Frustrating as hell to watch though, isn't it? Once again, rediculous penalties cost them in key situations - and what the hell is 'unnatural movement' for a penalty? They might have gotten off the field sooner had they done better than allowing 50% on third down conversions.

That call and the Patrick Pass fumble are two plays you may never see again in your lifetime. Besides sputtering in the first half and Pass' play, the O came through when they needed to. Had they bothered to use their tight ends, my pregame yardage/TD predictions might have been right.

Great job on special teams coverage v. McGee, the league's leading returner was a non-factor.

Watch for an INDY post later in the day. Looks like I was wrong, the Pats are NOT favored, but how could you favor them v. anyone after last week?