One of my two sleeper picks at the beginning of the season, the Washington Redskins, visit the Patriots this weekend. True to form, the Skins are 4-2 and are playing solid defense and "don't lose the game" offense. The Skins are the only team Tom Brady has not beaten, he's 0-1 against them. It'll be interesting to see if the little war of words between Gibbs and Brady has any effect on the game.
I believe this defense is the best one the Pats have faced thusfar this season and they'll be good preperation for next week's Indy game. They've got a very good linebacking corps and a pair of hard hitting, ball hawking safeties, not to mention 2 veteran cover corners. Rookie LaRon Landry is third on the team in tackles and his partner at safety, Shawn Taylor leads the league with 5 picks.
On Offense you'll see the skins play conservative, running to set up the pass with an occassional reverse to leading receiver Antoine Randle El. Jason Campbell, the starting QB, is in his first year as a starter out of Auburn and he's the son of a high school football coach. He knows the game, but he's not going to win games for this team. He's a "don't cost us the game" QB with 5TD's and 5 Int's. The Skins coaches have only allowed him to pass 168 times this season. To contrast that, Brady has COMPLETED 169 passes.
Here's how it breaks down:
The Pats are the #1 offense, 7th in rushing and 1st in passing.
The Skins are #25 on offense*, 16th in rushing and 25th in passing.
The Pats D is #4 overall, 9th in rushing and 4th in passing.
The Skins D is #5 overall, 5th in rushing and 8th in passing.
The biggest battle, however, should occur on third down.
Washingtons D #2 on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 32% of the time.
Conversely, the Pats O is 4th at converting on third down, at a rate of 48% .
Also, pay close attention to the special teams in this game. If Washington is going to hang around it's going to take a special teams score or two. Rock Cartwright is one of the leading kickoff returners in the game, averaging 30 yards per return and has returned one for a TD. Also th kicker, Suisham, is a perfect 13-13 FGs.
Here's how I see it:
The Pats will score on their opening drive like they always do. Washington's going to answer with a field goal. The Pats will have a couple of drives in a row stall, a result of a combination of good defense and the Pats looking ahead to Indy. Sometime in the second quarter the Pats score a couple of TDs and the Skins get one too. Watch for the Pats to lull everyone to sleep in the second half as they steadily pull away.
Patriots 31
Redskins 13
*NOTE If the Pats D gives up more than 13 or 14 points to THIS offense, they're going to get killed by Indy next week.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Catching Up, TOP TEN
Thanks for waiting patiently for me to return from my business trip to Chicago, the reason why I was unable to post last week. Looks like there wasn't much I could have said leading into the Dolphins game anyway, right?
There still isn't much to say about the Miami game. Miami is terrible. The Pats looked like they were playing against a high school team. After showing off receivers Stallworth and Welker for TD's, the Pats reminded the league not to forget about Randy Moss. His two TD catches were just unbelievable, especially the second one which he caught with the inside of his elbow because the defender grabbed his hands. Did you see the one he caught out of bounds on the fake spike play before the half? OMFG! (Can I say that in a blog?) The guys hands are like superglue.
The defense on the other hand, looks like crap. The Dolphins happless, Cleo Lemon led offense put up 21 points and averaged 6 yds per carry without Ronnie Brown for the majority of the game. Maybe it's too easy to let up when your offense is so dominanat. For me, it's two weeks in a row that the defense has been bad. If Cleo Lemon can put up three TD's, Manning & Co might put up six. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Tom Curran pointed out that, when Manning set the TD record in 2004, he threw 49 TD's and only 10 picks. Brady is on pace for 64 TD's and 5 picks. Frightening.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:
1 Patriots They may have the best offense ever.
2 Colts Winning with Defense (sound familiar?)
3 Cowboys I was very impressed with them against the Pats
4 Giants Purveyors of a 5 game winning streak with a great D.
5 Redskins That's right, the #5 team in the league will be a great test this Sunday.
6 Steelers Looked utterly average against Denver
7 Titans Winning with Kerry Collins says something about this team
8 Packers Need to find a running game. Gado is available....
9 Jaguars Too bad they lost Garrard against the Colts
10 San Diego I suspect they'll be climbing this list quickly.
Two divisions have 3 teams in the top ten. Obviously the best divisions in football are the NFC East (whom the pats play this season) and the AFC South.
There still isn't much to say about the Miami game. Miami is terrible. The Pats looked like they were playing against a high school team. After showing off receivers Stallworth and Welker for TD's, the Pats reminded the league not to forget about Randy Moss. His two TD catches were just unbelievable, especially the second one which he caught with the inside of his elbow because the defender grabbed his hands. Did you see the one he caught out of bounds on the fake spike play before the half? OMFG! (Can I say that in a blog?) The guys hands are like superglue.
The defense on the other hand, looks like crap. The Dolphins happless, Cleo Lemon led offense put up 21 points and averaged 6 yds per carry without Ronnie Brown for the majority of the game. Maybe it's too easy to let up when your offense is so dominanat. For me, it's two weeks in a row that the defense has been bad. If Cleo Lemon can put up three TD's, Manning & Co might put up six. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Tom Curran pointed out that, when Manning set the TD record in 2004, he threw 49 TD's and only 10 picks. Brady is on pace for 64 TD's and 5 picks. Frightening.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:
1 Patriots They may have the best offense ever.
2 Colts Winning with Defense (sound familiar?)
3 Cowboys I was very impressed with them against the Pats
4 Giants Purveyors of a 5 game winning streak with a great D.
5 Redskins That's right, the #5 team in the league will be a great test this Sunday.
6 Steelers Looked utterly average against Denver
7 Titans Winning with Kerry Collins says something about this team
8 Packers Need to find a running game. Gado is available....
9 Jaguars Too bad they lost Garrard against the Colts
10 San Diego I suspect they'll be climbing this list quickly.
Two divisions have 3 teams in the top ten. Obviously the best divisions in football are the NFC East (whom the pats play this season) and the AFC South.
Friday, October 12, 2007
The Cowboys Game
I'm not sure I can remember a more overhyped regular season game than the one between the Patriots and Cowboys this Sunday. It's been labeled a superbowl preview, TO vs Moss, Brady vs Romo, etc, etc. If it's going to be such a great game, why have ALL the experts picked the Pats to win? A better game might actually be the Redskins at Green Bay. At least the experts are about 50/50 on that one.
On paper the Pats and Cowboys look almost the same. The #1 and #2 offenses, the #2 and #8 defenses, great QB play, a dominating receiver, both undefeated and both have yet to play anyone. The Dallas opponenets have a combined record of 6-19 and have been outscored by 213 points. The Pats opponents are 7-17 and have been outscored by a total of 152 points. Two teams that look pretty similar on paper that are being hyped to death, yet no one's picking Dallas to win (except for "analysts" Emmit Smith and Michael Irvin). What gives?
This is what gives. Tom Brady is superperb and is very careful with the ball. Tony Romo slings it all over the place, see the Bills game. Randy Moss is a lot better than TO. Belichick is a better coach than Wade Phillips. That's what the 'experts' see. Here's the way I see it:
Yes, the Cowboys will put up some points, maybe 24 to 30 points. The fact is that the Cowboys defense, most notably the secondary just doesn't match up to the talent level on the Patriots offense. In addition, Cowboys starting cornerback Anthony Henry and his 4 interceptions is probably not playing this week. His replacement is Jacques Reeves. Statistically he's the most picked on corner in the league right now. He's been thrown at 57 times for 34 catches, 4 TD's and has no interceptions. Mr. Reeves, this is Mr Moss and Mr Stallworth and Mr Welker. Have fun. The Pats should also have a notable edge in field position as the Cowboys are near the bottom of the league in kick returns while the Pats are near the top.
Watch for the Pats to start the game in a spread formation, forcing Dallas to play nickel and dime with 3rd and 4th stringers then exploiting the D with a balance of passes and runs from the spread formation. This is the kind of game they've been saving Maroney for.
Watch for Dallas to try to turn this into a shootout. The Pats will get ahead early and the Cowboys will abandon the run with Romo slinging it wildly. No one has scored more second half points than the Cowyboys so don't count them out (but the Pats are #2 in second half scoring). Dallas knows it can't cover the Pats receivers, so they will probably blitz early and often with the hope that they'll force some turnovers.
The Cowboys score one late to make it close, but the score won't be indicative of the Pats dominance.
Patriots 37
Cowboys 29
On paper the Pats and Cowboys look almost the same. The #1 and #2 offenses, the #2 and #8 defenses, great QB play, a dominating receiver, both undefeated and both have yet to play anyone. The Dallas opponenets have a combined record of 6-19 and have been outscored by 213 points. The Pats opponents are 7-17 and have been outscored by a total of 152 points. Two teams that look pretty similar on paper that are being hyped to death, yet no one's picking Dallas to win (except for "analysts" Emmit Smith and Michael Irvin). What gives?
This is what gives. Tom Brady is superperb and is very careful with the ball. Tony Romo slings it all over the place, see the Bills game. Randy Moss is a lot better than TO. Belichick is a better coach than Wade Phillips. That's what the 'experts' see. Here's the way I see it:
Yes, the Cowboys will put up some points, maybe 24 to 30 points. The fact is that the Cowboys defense, most notably the secondary just doesn't match up to the talent level on the Patriots offense. In addition, Cowboys starting cornerback Anthony Henry and his 4 interceptions is probably not playing this week. His replacement is Jacques Reeves. Statistically he's the most picked on corner in the league right now. He's been thrown at 57 times for 34 catches, 4 TD's and has no interceptions. Mr. Reeves, this is Mr Moss and Mr Stallworth and Mr Welker. Have fun. The Pats should also have a notable edge in field position as the Cowboys are near the bottom of the league in kick returns while the Pats are near the top.
Watch for the Pats to start the game in a spread formation, forcing Dallas to play nickel and dime with 3rd and 4th stringers then exploiting the D with a balance of passes and runs from the spread formation. This is the kind of game they've been saving Maroney for.
Watch for Dallas to try to turn this into a shootout. The Pats will get ahead early and the Cowboys will abandon the run with Romo slinging it wildly. No one has scored more second half points than the Cowyboys so don't count them out (but the Pats are #2 in second half scoring). Dallas knows it can't cover the Pats receivers, so they will probably blitz early and often with the hope that they'll force some turnovers.
The Cowboys score one late to make it close, but the score won't be indicative of the Pats dominance.
Patriots 37
Cowboys 29
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Cleveland Game, Top Ten
It's hard to decide if the Patriots performance on Sunday was good or bad. Was it good because they didn't play very well and were stil able to win by 17? (Take away the turnovers and the Browns would have been very close.) Was it bad because Cleveland is not a good team and the Pats got away with one. I'll give the Browns credit for coming in and playing with heart and also for having a good gameplan. It was tough watching Brady struggle just because Moss was double teamed on literally every play. You'd have to assume that's what teams will do, double Moss until Brady shows he's comfortable beating them with other receivers.
Obviously Brady did enough to win even if it was ugly. Morris was very good running the ball and Watson and Stallworth showed that they can win ball games despite Moss' production or lack thereof. Is it too early bring in a new punter?
On cleveland's side, I'd have to say I like Anderson's moxie Joe Thomas is a stud and Bralon Edwards is a star waiting to happen. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed by Winslow.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS
1. Patriots
They'll have a chance to prove themselves at Dallas next week.
2. Colts
They could play me at RB and still win, their O-Line is that good.
3. Steelers
Total domination of one of the better NFC teams.
4. Cowboys
I've been trying to tell you that Romo's not as good as the hype. He
is good though.
5. Packers
Winning and LOSING on the arm of Favre.
6. Jaguars
A dominating D and a ball control O. Garrard has thrown ZERO int's.
7. Titans
A dominating D and a winner at QB.
8. Redskins
Have you heard this before? Dominating D, ball control O.
9. Seahawks
Will the real Seahawks please stand?
10. Bucaneers
I can't kick them out of the top 10 for losing at Indy.
San Fran's pick watch:
If the season ended today, the 49ers first round pick would be as high as #10. The Pats might be able to draft a replacement for Asante with a pick that high. Might.
Obviously Brady did enough to win even if it was ugly. Morris was very good running the ball and Watson and Stallworth showed that they can win ball games despite Moss' production or lack thereof. Is it too early bring in a new punter?
On cleveland's side, I'd have to say I like Anderson's moxie Joe Thomas is a stud and Bralon Edwards is a star waiting to happen. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed by Winslow.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS
1. Patriots
They'll have a chance to prove themselves at Dallas next week.
2. Colts
They could play me at RB and still win, their O-Line is that good.
3. Steelers
Total domination of one of the better NFC teams.
4. Cowboys
I've been trying to tell you that Romo's not as good as the hype. He
is good though.
5. Packers
Winning and LOSING on the arm of Favre.
6. Jaguars
A dominating D and a ball control O. Garrard has thrown ZERO int's.
7. Titans
A dominating D and a winner at QB.
8. Redskins
Have you heard this before? Dominating D, ball control O.
9. Seahawks
Will the real Seahawks please stand?
10. Bucaneers
I can't kick them out of the top 10 for losing at Indy.
San Fran's pick watch:
If the season ended today, the 49ers first round pick would be as high as #10. The Pats might be able to draft a replacement for Asante with a pick that high. Might.
Friday, October 05, 2007
Browns Game, Notes
What a great week it's been. The weather's great, the Pats are undefeated, the SOX are up in the Divisional Series and the Yankees are down. Who could ask for anything more? How about some Patriots notes....
Tom Brady has won the AFC player of the month for September.
Rodney is back and should be in the lineup come Sunday.
David Thomas was placed on IR for the second straight season.
In his place they signed Marcellus Rivers to a two year deal.
I haven't even noticed that Seymour Money isn't playing. It doesn't appear that there is much of a difference between he and Jarvis Green. Green has been doing a great job filling in, he is 7th on the team in tackles with 14 and second in sacks with 3.
The Pats are scoring an avg. of 37 points a game while giving up only 12.
The Pats are also #1 in the league on 3rd down conversions - offesively AND defensively.
The O is converting 51% of 3rd downs.
The D is holding opponents to only 30% conversions on 3rd down.
Adalius Thomas is serving "Humble Pie" to his teammates to remind them not to get too big headed. T-shirts were printed that say "I eat" on the front and "Humble Pie" on the back. Players have been wearing them in practice. Word is that a special hoodie was also printed for Belichick that says "Humble Pie" on the back, while the front reads "I serve".
Keep yourself glued to the tube this week if you're a football fan. There are a TON of great games
starting with the college games on Saturday.
Oklahoma v. Texas
Georgia v. Tennessee
Virginia Tech v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Purdue
AND THE BEST OF ALL #9 FLorida at #1 LSU - DON'T MISS IT!!!!
On Sunday the good match ups include:
Chicago v. GB
TB v. Indy
Seattle v. Pitt
Detroit v. Wash
Ny v. NY
Jags v. KC
Balt v. SF
Here's what you need to know for The Patriots hosting The Browns on Sunday:
The Browns have a pretty good offense, ranked 11th in the NFL, but the D is pretty poor, at 31st overall.
On Offense you'll see an average QB in Derek Anderson. He's completing 52% of his passes for 9TD's but has thrown 5 interceptions. Kellen Winslow is the main target at TE He's got 20 catches and a TD but a whopping average of 19 yards per catch. Then there's Braylon Edwards. He's got 18 catches and 4 TDs and another big average of 21 yards per catch. The featured back is 'chip on his shoulder' Jamal Lewis who's rushing for nearly 5 yds per carry.
The X factor in this game is special teams. The Pats will have to bring it on Sunday. Brown's returner Josh Cribbs has already brought one to the house and is averaging 34 yds per return. If he scores on Sunday it could give the Browns some momentum and some much needed points. (see the 17 point spread)
I expect to see a Patriots gameplan similar to last week. Soft zones on defense to prevent the big play. It's the same old frustrating bend but don't break defense. It worked tremendously against Cincy last week and we should see the same thing this week. On offense, the Pats will run and then run and then run some more. The Browns give up an average of 160yds rushing a game. Ball control, long drives leading to scores - all day. Hopefully Maroney will be healthy and will be able to contribute to the running attack, but either way the Pats have enough runners to gash the Browns.
I think that Belichick won't try to run it up too much on old friend Romeo,
but I don't see the Browns getting in the end zone.
Pats 31
Browns 6
Tom Brady has won the AFC player of the month for September.
Rodney is back and should be in the lineup come Sunday.
David Thomas was placed on IR for the second straight season.
In his place they signed Marcellus Rivers to a two year deal.
I haven't even noticed that Seymour Money isn't playing. It doesn't appear that there is much of a difference between he and Jarvis Green. Green has been doing a great job filling in, he is 7th on the team in tackles with 14 and second in sacks with 3.
The Pats are scoring an avg. of 37 points a game while giving up only 12.
The Pats are also #1 in the league on 3rd down conversions - offesively AND defensively.
The O is converting 51% of 3rd downs.
The D is holding opponents to only 30% conversions on 3rd down.
Adalius Thomas is serving "Humble Pie" to his teammates to remind them not to get too big headed. T-shirts were printed that say "I eat" on the front and "Humble Pie" on the back. Players have been wearing them in practice. Word is that a special hoodie was also printed for Belichick that says "Humble Pie" on the back, while the front reads "I serve".
Keep yourself glued to the tube this week if you're a football fan. There are a TON of great games
starting with the college games on Saturday.
Oklahoma v. Texas
Georgia v. Tennessee
Virginia Tech v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Purdue
AND THE BEST OF ALL #9 FLorida at #1 LSU - DON'T MISS IT!!!!
On Sunday the good match ups include:
Chicago v. GB
TB v. Indy
Seattle v. Pitt
Detroit v. Wash
Ny v. NY
Jags v. KC
Balt v. SF
Here's what you need to know for The Patriots hosting The Browns on Sunday:
The Browns have a pretty good offense, ranked 11th in the NFL, but the D is pretty poor, at 31st overall.
On Offense you'll see an average QB in Derek Anderson. He's completing 52% of his passes for 9TD's but has thrown 5 interceptions. Kellen Winslow is the main target at TE He's got 20 catches and a TD but a whopping average of 19 yards per catch. Then there's Braylon Edwards. He's got 18 catches and 4 TDs and another big average of 21 yards per catch. The featured back is 'chip on his shoulder' Jamal Lewis who's rushing for nearly 5 yds per carry.
The X factor in this game is special teams. The Pats will have to bring it on Sunday. Brown's returner Josh Cribbs has already brought one to the house and is averaging 34 yds per return. If he scores on Sunday it could give the Browns some momentum and some much needed points. (see the 17 point spread)
I expect to see a Patriots gameplan similar to last week. Soft zones on defense to prevent the big play. It's the same old frustrating bend but don't break defense. It worked tremendously against Cincy last week and we should see the same thing this week. On offense, the Pats will run and then run and then run some more. The Browns give up an average of 160yds rushing a game. Ball control, long drives leading to scores - all day. Hopefully Maroney will be healthy and will be able to contribute to the running attack, but either way the Pats have enough runners to gash the Browns.
I think that Belichick won't try to run it up too much on old friend Romeo,
but I don't see the Browns getting in the end zone.
Pats 31
Browns 6
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Cincy ReCap, Notes, Top Ten
I don't know what other superlatives I can bestow on the Patriots. They are simply awesome. They are superior. They are smarter, more disciplined, more talented, better coached. They are head and shoulders above anyone else in the NFL. Not that Cincy was a good team, but the Pats just cruised to victory. Once again, it didn't feel like the Pats were playing that great, but there was just a sense that the game was never in doubt. And in the end the result was the same, a Pats blow out. Great performances by Brady, Moss, Morris, the O line and the entire defense. The D held Cincy's high octane offense to an unheard of 0 for 7 on 3rd down conversions. Wow. It was also nice to see Stallworth get some production. I don't think any more can be said.
Brady is on pace for 4,472 yds, 52 TD's and 8 int's.
Moss is on pace for 2,020 yds, 28 TD's
The Pats have the league's #1 Defense.
The Pats have the leagues #2 Offense.
Can you call it Karma?
The NFL has punished the Pats by taking away their first round pick in next years draft, a pick that will probably the last pick in the round anyway. The Patriots still have possession of San Francisco's first round pick. A pick that may have just become a top ten pick with the injury to starting QB Alex Smith. Reports out of SF are saying that MRI results on Smith's shoulder are worst than expected. Smith is seeking a second opinion. As it stands this moment, Smith is expected to miss at least the next 2 games and depending on the second opinion, maybe the entire season. While we don't wish any harm to Alex Smith, it would be pretty exciting to have a high first rounder.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS
1 - Pats
Great D, Great O, solid special teams, superior coaching and superior talent.
2 - Colts
Watch for a Colts loss in the next 2 weeks, they are really banged up right now.
3 - Packers
Still doing it with D, but maybe they are relying too much on the Passing game.
4 - Cowboys
Beaten 4 teams with a combined 3 wins. Trap game this week for them in Buffalo.
5 - Steelers
I told you they'd lose when they played a team that can stop the run.
6 - Seattle
Looking strong on O, but even better on D.
7 - Tampa Bay
Another win, another great performance by the D. Too bad they lost Cadillac.
8 - Tennessee
Tenneseean is Tennebelieving. Watch Vince Young if you get the chance.
9 - Detroit
I don't know if I ever remember Detroit being 3-1.
10 - Carolina
Because I had to put someone 10th.
I'll be back again on Friday with your preview of Sunday's game against the surprising Browns. Until then, tell your friends you read it here!
Brady is on pace for 4,472 yds, 52 TD's and 8 int's.
Moss is on pace for 2,020 yds, 28 TD's
The Pats have the league's #1 Defense.
The Pats have the leagues #2 Offense.
Can you call it Karma?
The NFL has punished the Pats by taking away their first round pick in next years draft, a pick that will probably the last pick in the round anyway. The Patriots still have possession of San Francisco's first round pick. A pick that may have just become a top ten pick with the injury to starting QB Alex Smith. Reports out of SF are saying that MRI results on Smith's shoulder are worst than expected. Smith is seeking a second opinion. As it stands this moment, Smith is expected to miss at least the next 2 games and depending on the second opinion, maybe the entire season. While we don't wish any harm to Alex Smith, it would be pretty exciting to have a high first rounder.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS
1 - Pats
Great D, Great O, solid special teams, superior coaching and superior talent.
2 - Colts
Watch for a Colts loss in the next 2 weeks, they are really banged up right now.
3 - Packers
Still doing it with D, but maybe they are relying too much on the Passing game.
4 - Cowboys
Beaten 4 teams with a combined 3 wins. Trap game this week for them in Buffalo.
5 - Steelers
I told you they'd lose when they played a team that can stop the run.
6 - Seattle
Looking strong on O, but even better on D.
7 - Tampa Bay
Another win, another great performance by the D. Too bad they lost Cadillac.
8 - Tennessee
Tenneseean is Tennebelieving. Watch Vince Young if you get the chance.
9 - Detroit
I don't know if I ever remember Detroit being 3-1.
10 - Carolina
Because I had to put someone 10th.
I'll be back again on Friday with your preview of Sunday's game against the surprising Browns. Until then, tell your friends you read it here!
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