Wednesday, December 28, 2005

To Three or not to Three

It was a dominating performance by the Pats on the final ABC Monday Night game ever. Who cares? The games are going to be on ESPN instead, what's the big deal anyway? The Pats dominated from start to finish with the exception of one poor Brady TD pass to Ty Law. When you hold an NFL team to no 1st downs in an entire half and run 31 straight Offensive snaps, I don't care who you're playing against, that is total domination. As a result of the game, two major questions are now on everyone's mind. What is Bruschi's status for the playoffs and are the Pats better off as the 3 seed or 4?

While slightly more info will be available later today when the official injury report comes out, it appears that Brushi has torn his calf muscle. My guess is the Pats injury report will list Brushi as "Questionable - Leg". Needless to say, the huge strides that this D has made are a direct reflection of Bruschi being on the field. Not just his playing ability, but his ability to read the O and call the appropriate D. Without him in the middle the Pats might be looking at one and done.

So are the Patriots better off as the #3 or #4 seed? What do YOU think?

Some will argue that you should always try to win and get the highest seed possible because there is a greater chance of getting a second home game and finish on a roll with another win.

I'll tell you why the Pats are much better off as the #4 seed. As the #4 the first round opponent will be Jax. Florida team, January and 7 degrees with snow flurries in Foxboro. Jax may have to play the backup QB Garrard. Or Jax starts Leftwich, who hasn't started a game in 5 weeks. Yes their D is very good, but the Pats O has demonstrated over the past two games that it can score any way that it has to against a particular D. (v. TB they spread it out, 4-5 wideouts, empty backfields, single back sets and scored 28 pts. v. Jets they ran the ball 50 times in 3 TE sets and Ashworth as a fullback to score 31 pts.)
As the #3 they will likely face the second hottest team in the NFL right now, Pitt. I'll take Jax, thank you.
Once the Pats finish off the Jags, it'll be on to Indy (assuming the higher seeds win). What better time to face Indy than as their first real game in what will be 5 weeks? (L to SD, L to Seattle, not starters playing this week, then a bye week) and add in the emotion invovled with the Dungy thing, I'd say you'd want to be the first team to face Indy in the playoffs because that's when they'll be most vulnerable.
If you have to go to Denver after that so be it, but at that point we could at least say the Pats are the reason why Peyton P*ssy is once again sitting at home for the Super Bowl.
Right now, AT Denver looks a lot more difficult than AT Indy, so to 3 or not to 3? I say let the starters play one quarter then put the subs in or at least Matt Cassell and lose the game. Play for the 4th seed Bill!

For those that don't know the possibilities:
If the Pats win and Cincy loses to KC, the Pats are the #3 seed.
If Pats lose, they are #4 no matter what Cincy does.
If Pats win and Cincy beats KC, Pats are #4.

KC NEEDS to win and Pitt to lose in order to make the playoffs, so they'll be playing desperate football.

However, if YOU are Cincy, don't you rest your players and lose, hope that Pats win and so you can grab the 4th seed to play Jax, rather than division rival Pitt?

It's the most wonderful time of the year!!!!!

Friday, December 23, 2005

What a Shame

Our thoughts are with Tony Dungy and his family. Though a despised enemy of Patriots nation on the field, we never want to see anyone have to cope with the loss of a child. God Bless.

Just a reminder sports fans, the majority of NFL games are on Saturday this week. The Sunday schedule sucks and then the Pats v. Jets will be Monday night.

Merry Christmas from Patriots Report.

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

It's Better all the Time

Great job commenting on Sunday's game Krager and mrbandw, I couldn't have put it any better myself. The Pats have certainly given us reason to believe that they might actually win a 3rd superbowl in a row. Of course I say that with gaurded optimism. It could be easy to discount the Bucs in Sunday's game because 1- it was their 3rd road game in a row 2- the franchise historically plays poor in the cold 3-Gruden was outcoached bya long shot 4-they play in the NFC. The NFC competition is pathetic. Does anyone doubt that the team that wins the AFC will be favored in and probably win the SB?
The Pats and Bengals playing well and the Indy loss to me just signifies that it's any team's conference to win. BUT there is no clear cut favorite because there are no 'test' games for these teams until the actual playoffs begin. That being said, who would you rather have coaching in the playoffs than Belichick? Who would you rather have at QB than Brady? How much more playoff experience does this team have over say, Cincy? SD? Denver? KC? It seems that, though vulnerable, the Pats have a lot going for them heading into these playoffs. The Pats could still end up as high as 3rd seed if Cincy loses it's final 2 and Pats win final 2. I'd rather be 4th and host J'ville than 3rd and host SD or Pitt or KC.

Here's the Stats:
Category Pats at 4-4 Pats Now
Rush yds allowed 128.9 (27th) 99.4 (6th)
Point allowed 27.5 (30th) 20.6 (19th)
3rd down O 35.6% (22nd) 41.8% (7th)
35+ pass plays 10 in 8 gms 5 in 6 gms
Red zone D 19TDs in 28 trips 5TD's in 15 trips

TOM BRADY

"They (the Pats) have the best QB in the league." -John Gruden

"That QB (Brady) is unbelievable. That throw he made on the 3rd play of the game, I mean, I don't know who makes that throw. An absolute perfect throw." - Monte Kiffin, Bucs D coordinator.

Peter King in Monday Morning QB talking about the same throw and the one before half where Brady got face masked and still completed the pass to Dwight, "Now, let's say 90% of the passers in football are playing the bucs on this day. I say the vast majority of the QB's in football have their team up 3-0 at the 2 inute warning. Not New England. Not with Brady. New England, 14-0." And further, "...it's a tribute to his consistent greatness that a 65%, 258 yd, 3 TD, no pick performance against the NFL's #2 Defense was barely discussed after the game."

Ronde Barber, Bucs CB after the game on Tom Brady:
"What we saw today, was a living legend."

You gotta figure, as long as he's playing, the Pats have a shot a the three-peat.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Pats V. Tampa Bay

This is shaping up to be quite a match-up. In fairness to the Pats in regards to my last post, the weather for Saturday is sunny and 40 degrees. That means a level playing field. As a Pats fan, you had to have been hoping for 20 degrees and snow. Tampa has never won a regular season game under 35 degrees and their starting RB, "Cadillac" Williams has NEVER even seen snow. A win for the Pats would be a good win. If they aren't victorious it will leave us all felling the same way we did after KC 3 weeks ago, that they just aren't good enough to beat a good team - and TB is a good team. AND don't worry, Brady will play. He's been running without a noticeable limp in practice. That will make 76 straight starts for the team MVP and future President of the United States.

Defensively, TB is #2 overall but what's really impressive is that they are top five v. both the run and the pass. (#5 and #4 respectively) Not surprisingly, the Tampa D is 7th on third down, holding opponents to just 34% of conversions.
The "Tampa 2" defense is their base defense, which means they usually have two deep safeties in pass coverage with an agressive one-gap D-Line featuring Chris Hovan and Simeon Rice. The conventional wisdom is that the way to beat the "Tampa 2" is to throw to the TE over the middle, between the two safeties.
To run v. the one-gap the O Line will do a lot of letting the DLine through only to be whacked by the TE pulling into the middle. Obviously, the Pats will need BIG games from Watson and Graham both blocking and catching the ball. They are both listed as questionable and if they can't go the Pat's may be in trouble.

Offensively, Gruden is known to attack the D's weakness over and over again. The way that Belichick described it was, and I'm paraphrasing: "Shanahan (denver) does a good job of sticking the knife in where your D is weakest, but Gruden sticks the knife in and twists it around a few times until it really hurts."
In the past Gruden has done this by using lots of motion to create mismatches and favorable matchups. However, TB has been much more vanilla since Simms took over and stays in a lot of max protect formations. In TB's 3 losses with Simms, he has been sacked 15 times. In their 4 wins he's been sacked 3 times. Expected Belichick to throw lot's of different looks at Simms. Zone coverage, man coverage, blitzes, fake blitzes, zone blitzes, you name it. Belichick will try to take advantage of Gruden's young QB and the vanilla O.

It's interesting that since Gruden's arrival in TB he and Belichick have developed quite a relationship. It's only going to grow since Belichick's former X and O buddy was Nick Saban, now the coach of the Dolphins. You can bet that Belichick's not talking X's and O's with him anymore.

Tampa Bay is the last team in the NFL that Brady hasn't started against.

The Pats haven't beaten TB since 1988.

The Pats are 43-7 after Nov 1 since 2001.

The Pats set a franchise record with 32 1st downs last week.

Tom Brady is 19-0 when the game time temp is under 40 degrees.

Deion Branch needs one TD catch to set a new career high of FIVE.
(Superbowl MVP my ass. Who threw him the ball?)

The Pats are now #9 in the ESPN power rankings playing against #5 TB. Why then, ESPN analysts, are the Pats favored by 5 points if TB is so much better?

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Laughable or Plausible?

The confidence in this Patriots team seams to be at an all time high in the print media, the broadcast media and of course in the talk show callers. Suddenly the secondary has come together and we're putting pressure on the quarterbacks and we're shutting down the run, Faulk & Dillon are back and the offense has been awesome. The Pats look like a DYNASTY again. Enough already.

If you name the 5 worst teams in football you'd probably include Buffalo and the J.E.T.S. jets jets jets. I would just like to remind everyone that the patriots beat the Bills and Jets over this 'marvelous' run of 2 wins in a row that the Pats are on. The Bills have packed it in, and the Jets might have the worst O in football.

That being said, Belichick is FINALLY letting the boys lose on Defense. They are running stunts and 5,6,or 7 man blitzes. They've caused turnovers! It remains to be seen if the turnovers are a result of the blitz or the way poor teams react to the blitz.

I'm just trying to get everyone back to reality here. The Pats are still 2-5 v. teams with a record north of .500. This weeks game would prove a little bit more that the Pats are for real, however keep in mind that Tampa Bay has NEVER won a game in tempuratures below 35 degrees. So a blow out win still won't convince me. In fact the Pats probably won't really be tested until the first round of the playoffs and even then we're looking at a Florida team trying to come up here and win in VERY wintery January conditions.

Some positive things that are happening that you should be excited about:
-Faulk is back and might have the best hands of any RB in the NFL
-Dillon is at least enough of a threat to run that play action works
-Rosie Colvin is REALLY coming back into form
-Seymour has been put in spots to be disruptive and he has been.
-Tom Brady is the best player in the NFL
-Tom Brady is the best player in the NFL
-Tom Brady is the best player in the NFL
-Brady and Belichick are undefeated together in the playoffs.
-As long as Tom Brady is around the Pats can win against anyone anywhere.

It is laughable to say that this team is back to dynasty form, but if it comes down to one game in Peyton's place, it is plausible the Pats win. I certainly wouldn't bet against the Pats in that game.

Friday, December 09, 2005

I Finally Get to Post Again.....

Is once a week enough?

Great game by Tom Brady, bouncing back from his 4 INT fiasco. He was 27 of 37 but I remember numerous drops, he probably should have been 30 or 31 out of 37. I'm sure that doesn't matter to Brady as long as they got the win. Congrats to him also for being SI's sportsman of the year.

The most under-rated return from injury has to be that of Kevin Faulk. This guy is a difference maker. He caught 3 balls on 3rd down, all of which went for first downs. No other back has caught a 3rd down pass for a first down all season.

Seymour money isn't happy with the crowd noise at Gillette. Shut up and make a tackle, maybe the people will cheer. Seymour money had as many tackles v. the Jets as Peyton Manning has superbowl rings. ZERO. Oh and did you notice his facemask penalty that nulified a Pats takeaway? PLEASE Bill and Scott, trade him this off-season. I still think San Fran for two #1 picks is a nice deal for both teams.

Overall you'd have to give the D credit for holding Curtis, "Parcells is God" Martin to only 29 yds. I hope he comes up short of 1000 yds this season and breaks his string of 10 seasons in a row with 1000 yds. But don't get me started on Curtis.

Don't get too excited about the win over the Jets. They simply suck. I do hope they win one or two more games though. I don't like the thought of playing against Bush or Leinart or Young twice a year.

Let's take a look at the Heisman before moving on to this weeks game. I think everyone knows that Reggie Bush is going to win it. He is the most exciting player in the NCAA, no doubt about it. Here's my take on why The Heisman should go to Vince Young:
1. He's the only player on his team. If Bush has an off game, Leinart or Lindale White take up the slack. If Young runs for 20 or 25 yds and gets tackled, he's gotta get right back up and make the next play even if he's winded. Bush simply comes out for a breather.
2. Young has accounted for twice as many TD's as Bush.
3. Young hasn't played very much in the 2nd half of games because they've blown people out.
4. Leinart has no chance because they won't want to make him the 2nd person to win 2 Heisman trophy's.
5. Texas is 11-0.
Here's how they'll actually finish: 1 Bush, 2 Young, 3 Leinart.
Too bad.

The Bills Game
The Pats couldn't be getting the Bills at a better time, as they are a team in turmoil. Moulds is suspended for this game and reports say coach Mularky has lost his veterans in the locker room. They don't buy into his program anymore and that is NOT going to help them win on Sunday.

Pats practices this week have focused once again on third down conversions.
The Pats were 1 of 7 on 3rd down v. Buffalo the first time around. Overall they are 12th in the league at 39% on 3rd down. Buffalo's D is 29th by the way, allowing 42%. Maybe the Pats will actually string together some long drives!

The Patriots will clinch their division title this weekend by beating Buffalo if Miami loses to San Diego. Highly likely.

Here's what the AFC playoff picture will probably look like:
1 Indy
2 Denver
3 Cincy
4 Pats
5 Jacksonville
6 San Diego (or maybe Pitt or KC)

We couldn't ask for a better scenario. Pats would host Jacksonville. Florida team up here in 15 degree MA weather. Back up QB. I like our chances. A win would earn the Pats a trip to Indy unless SD beats Cincy which may happen.
The ideal is Pats win, SD wins, Pats go to Denver, SD to Indy. Pats win again and SD upsets Indy, we host SD for the AFC championship. Who would've thunk?

The most likely scenario is a trip to Peyton's place. A theory was brought out by a Patriots beat writer that the Pats are already preping for the showdown with Indy. They really haven't blitzed much 'cuz they don't want Manning to have any tape of their blitzes. That Belichick and Mangini are working on some different looks/blitz packages in practice, but not using them in games. Would it be the greatest thing if Pretty Peyton goes 16-0 and then loses to the 10-6 beaten up Pats in his first playoff game? One and done Pey-Ton!

That excites me almost as much as the thought of Miguel Tejada playing SS in Boston for the next 4 yrs! WOW!!!!!

The Pats are now #12 in the ESPN power rankings.

Friday, December 02, 2005

Where the Hell Have I Been?

For those of you (both of you) that simply can't get enough Patriots report, my apologies. Things have been hectic with the holidays and they are cracking down on internet use at work, so I haven't had much of an opportunity to post.

As bad as Tom Brady was in Kansas City, they were in contention and had one or two plays gone differently they could have won. Of course, that's what most Patriots opponents have been saying over the last two years, so that's not a good sign. What's also not a good sign is the fact the the Pats are 2-5 vs teams with a winning record. And what of the play calling vs the Chiefs! Charlie, this is my official apology to you for the last few years of hating your play calling as well as calling you Fat Weis. The Patriots elementary, conservative and predictable play calling was in full display last week. Here's how it goes: Besides during two minute offense, 85% of the time if they ran on 1st down they passed on 2nd down and if they passed on 1st down they ran on 2nd down. Genius. In addition to having no running game, Brady had 4 picks but his worst throws weren't even the interceptions. Do you remember a wide open Ben Watson in the endzone being overthrown by 10 yards? I'd still take him over any QB in the league and the Jets are forewarned. Brady's career best games have come following his 3 and 4 INT games. If you've got Tom on your fantasy team be sure to start him this week, unless you're playing against me.

Should we stop using the injuries as an excuse for this team? Wasn't the Patriots mantra during the 'dynasty' run of superbowls that they played right through injuries?
In '03 they started 42 different guys, went 14-2 and won the SB.
In '04 they started 40 different guys, went 14-2 and won the SB.
In '05 they've started 43 different players and are 6-5.

It has been suggested that poor coaching and poor play on the players part are the cause of the mediocre record. Undoubtably, Belichick misses Weis and Crennel. It's not that he couldn't run the O or the D, but it's just too much to ask for him to do BOTH. I don't think he has time to sleep. Another HUGE reason for the poor record is the horrible off-season of Pioli. We've been over this and I'm not going down that road again. Even though the number of starters is similar to '03 & '04, I think that it's which players they have lost to injury that are important. Light, Dillon, Faulk, Graham, Watson, Koppen, Brown, Givens on O. The whole damn secondary on D, Seymour, Green, Bruschi, and the Johnson retirement which they don't count in games lost to injury.

Speaking of injuries here's this week's list:

Brady - probable
Ashworth, Dillon, Faulk, Givens, Graham, Johnson, McGinest, Pass, Sanders, Stone all QUESTIONABLE.
Light - doubtful. There are rumors that he is done for the year.
The fact that Mike Cloud was released leads me to believe that Dillon and or Faulk will be playing this week v. the Jets.

In this weeks ESPN power rankings the Pats have slipped to 15. How bad is that? The Vikings are 16.

If you feel the way I do about Tom Brady, you may go to NFL.com and vote for him to make the pro-bowl. Even though he leads the league in several categories, he is 4th in AFC voting behind Manning, Palmer and Roethlesberger. Roethlesberger! Are you F*@#ing kidding me, 14 freakin passes a game! I could see if Brady was battling Brees, but this is rediculous.

My best efforts will be made to try to post as often as I can, so check back soon.

p.s. Good riddance to Joe Thornton, the Drew Bledsoe of the Bruins.

Where the Hell Have I Been?

For those of you (both of you) that simply can't get enough Patriots report, my apologies. Things have been hectic with the holidays and they are cracking down on internet use at work, so I haven't had much of an opportunity to post.

As bad as Tom Brady was in Kansas City, they were in contention and had one or two plays gone differently they could have won. Of course, that's what most Patriots opponents have been saying over the last two years, so that's not a good sign. What's also not a good sign is the fact the the Pats are 2-5 vs teams with a winning record. And what of the play calling vs the Chiefs! Charlie, this is my official apology to you for the last few years of hating your play calling as well as calling you Fat Weis. The Patriots elementary, conservative and predictable play calling was in full display last week. Here's how it goes: Besides during two minute offense, 85% of the time if they ran on 1st down they passed on 2nd down and if they passed on 1st down they ran on 2nd down. Genius. In addition to having no running game, Brady had 4 picks but his worst throws weren't even the interceptions. Do you remember a wide open Ben Watson in the endzone being overthrown by 10 yards? I'd still take him over any QB in the league and the Jets are forewarned. Brady's career best games have come following his 3 and 4 INT games. If you've got Tom on your fantasy team be sure to start him this week, unless you're playing against me.

Should we stop using the injuries as an excuse for this team? Wasn't the Patriots mantra during the 'dynasty' run of superbowls that they played right through injuries?
In '03 they started 42 different guys, went 14-2 and won the SB.
In '04 they started 40 different guys, went 14-2 and won the SB.
In '05 they've started 43 different players and are 6-5.

It has been suggested that poor coaching and poor play on the players part are the cause of the mediocre record. Undoubtably, Belichick misses Weis and Crennel. It's not that he couldn't run the O or the D, but it's just too much to ask for him to do BOTH. I don't think he has time to sleep. Another HUGE reason for the poor record is the horrible off-season of Pioli. We've been over this and I'm not going down that road again. Even though the number of starters is similar to '02 & '04, I think that it's which players they have lost to injury that are important. Light, Dillon, Faulk, Graham, Watson, Koppen, Brown, Givens on O. The whole damn secondary on D, Seymour, Green, Bruschi, and the Johnson retirement which they don't count in games lost to injury.

Speaking of injuries:

Brady - probable
Ashworth, Dillon, Faulk, Givens, Graham, Johnson, McGinest, Pass, Sanders, Stone all QUESTIONABLE.
Light - doubtful. There are rumors that he is done for the year.
The fact that Mike Cloud was released leads me to believe that Dillon and or Faulk will be playing this week v. the Jets.

In this weeks ESPN power rankings the Pats have slipped to 15. How bad is that? The Vikings are 16.

If you feel the way I do about Tom Brady, you may go to NFL.com and vote for him to make the pro-bowl. Even though he leads the league in several categories, he is 4th in AFC voting behind Manning, Palmer and Roethlesberger. Roethlesberger! Are you F*@#ing kidding me, 14 freakin passes a game! I could see if Brady was battling Brees, but this is rediculous.

My best efforts will be made to try to post as often as I can, so check back soon.

p.s. Good riddance to Joe Thornton, the Drew Bledsoe of the Bruins.