The "Real" Patriots Fan

Have you heard the story of the ball that Doug Flutie drop kicked?

Because it was a surprise play, the field goal net was never raised, so one lucky fan actually caught the now famous ball. The Football Hall of Fame contacted the Pats asking for the ball, along with Flutie's jersey and shoes. The Pats gladly handed over the jersey and spikes, but security and game tapes failed to identify which fan caught the ball. Some of the season ticket holders contacted the Pats and identified the ball catcher, whom the they tried to reach and had none of their calls returned. Then on Monday, the Pats received a fax from the attorney of the ball catcher. Here is what the fax said:

According to the fax, the law office represents Mr. X, ''who is in possession of the football recently drop kicked by Doug Flutie for the first extra point scored in the NFL by drop kick in forty one years. My client understands that the New England Patriots may have an interest in purchasing that historic football."
Then came the fan's ''terms and conditions," which frankly boggle the mind. Here's what one self-proclaimed ''real Patriot fan" feels the ball is worth:
''1. Payment of ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND ($100,000.00) DOLLARS [lawyer's capitals] on delivery of the football.
''2. A guarantee of eight (8) season tickets for 25 years in the end zone (preferably sections 142 or 143).
''a. The season tickets will be paid for annually by my client at the then going price for season tickets. The Patriots would not be expected to pay for the tickets.
''3. Delivery by the Patriots to my client sometime in September, 2006, of a Tom Brady Patriots' football jersey signed by all the team members as of the beginning of the next football season."

Nice. This guy is a "real" Pats fan? How about, I'd like to return the ball to Mr Flutie and my wife and I would like to go out to dinner with the Fluties.
Or how about an autographed Flutie jersey? What the hell is this guy thinking. One member of the Pats brass was quoted, "I hope he enjoys the ball."

More on the 2006 Roster

Thanks for the feedback regards to the 2006 needs, you all made cogent points. I am still holding to my contention that they MUST get WR help. As things stand now, they have only Branch and Bethel Johnson (who WILL get cut) under contract. Rumors around the league have givens getting big bucks, similar to what Buress got from the Gmen and what Mason got with the Ravens, 4-5 million per for 5-6 yrs. No way the Pats are coming up with that dough, especially when they have Branch entering the last year of his contract. If givens is worth 25 mil, what's Branch worth? The major players for Givens are those that know him, Crennel, Saba and Mangini. The only thing that might force the Pats to bite the bullet on Givens is the lack of free agents available. I have seen four names specifically linked to the Pats. They are Jurevicious, who the Pats tried hard to get when he left Tampa, Peerless Price, who they know from Buffalo that is a good #2 but awful #1 WR, and Brandon Lloyd from San Fran, who has the size speed and ability to potentially be a #1 but may fly under the radar for the mere fact that he's never had a legit QB, also Keenan McCardell who Belichick also coveted before he went to SD via free agency last time.
Tow other intruguiging free agents that might command big bucks are Randal El from Pitt and Reggie Wayne from Indy.

None of those guys fills the need for a return specialist. The only returner in the top 10 that is available is Quincy Morgan from Pitt. He only had something like 9 catches all year though.

A far as your comments on O-Line, the Pats have NEVER gone out and signed a name free agent at O-line. They draft lineman form Big Time college programs and develop them over time (Light, Goren, Koppen). When they get a free agent it he is a guy that no other team wants (Andruzzi, Ashworth, Hochstein) I don't think that they'll draft a lineman too high. IF they just re-sign Neal and Ashworth they'll be fine at O-line. You gotta figure the two rookies are no longer rookies, then add in the return of Light and Koppen.

At CB it is too hard to tell. Here are some free agent names to consider:
DeShea Townsend and Ike Taylor from Pitt, Nate Clements from the Bills, ray Mickens of the Browns and WIll Allen from the GMen. Don't forget Ty Law, who had more INT's than the entire Pats D this year, he'll be a cap casualty in NY.

At Safety there are a few more to consider: Adam Archuleta from St Louis, Corey Chavous of the Vikes, Tank WIlliams from Tenn. Also, don't forget about old friend Malloy, who will also be cut this year.

There seem to be a few decent names at LB also:
Cato June, David Thornton. Gary Brackett and Rob Morris all from Colts, Julian Peterson of SF - he's in the mold of McGinest it would be great to see the Pats go get him, Warrick Holdman from Wash.

For a full list of free agents visit the red zone dot com.

That's all I have time for right now. Next week I'll try to post some stuff about the draft.

2006 Roster...

Tell me what YOU think are the Pats biggest roster needs for 2006.


The Pats may be without every WR except Branch, so getting another #2 and #3 receiver should be #1 on the list. Givens, Davis, Brown, Dwight are all unrestricted and Bethel Johnson doesn't have a prayer of making the team.

They will probably look to add some veteran help at S and CB. I can't see them bringing Poole or Starks back and it may be 3 or 4 games before Rodney comes back.

A think an under-rated need is that of a return specialist. A guy to JUST return kicks and punts effectively.

Here is the entire list of Pats unrestricted free agents:
Adam Vinatieri
Andre' Davis
Cedric James
Chad Scott
Christian Fauria
David Givens
Don Davis
Doug Flutie
Hank Poteat
Heath Evans
Matt Chatham
Michael Stone
Mike Cloud
Stephen Neal
Tim Dwight
Tom Ashworth
Troy Brown

Things can only get better, right?

Anything that could go wrong went wrong. You can never expect to win a game when you hand it to the other team on a silver platter. 4 turnovers lead to 4 drives for a TOTAL of 25 yards to score 24 points. Vinatieri misses a filed goal?, brady throws a bad pick? (and missed some open guys) the O line couldn't block my grandmother?, Faulk does what he always does (fumble), Troy Brown drops a punt?Hobbs is the best option you have for returning a kickoff? The officiating was atrocious but wouldn't have matter if the Pats simply applied the most basic of all fundamentals. HOLD ON TO THE F$CKING BALL!!!! It can't get any worse, can it. OH YES, it can! To pour more salt on the wounds the damn Steelers knock Indy out. Great, we could have hosted the AFC championship and gone to the superbowl against 2 teams that strike no fear. The stars aligned for the Pats to threepeat and they fumbled it away. It was quite honestly the hardest game to watch in my life. (I can barely remember the 46-10 SB)

So things can only get better, right?

It's going to be a busy off season, hopefully it's a productive one. Here's what Belichick and Pioli did the last time they were bounced out early: free agents Rosie Colvin, Rodney Harrison, Ty Poole and draft picks Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel and Dan Koppen as well as Ted Washington via trade.

Word out of Foxborough is that the loss of Mangini is probably an upgrade at D coordinator with Dan Pees. Mangini evidently lacked leadership and decision making skills and didn't hold the respect of the players. That's why it took the Pats 62 minutes to anounce their new D coordinator.
Regardless of how good (or bad) an off season the Pats have, they still have to be considered the favorites to win their division next year. Buffalo has an 80 year old in charge and a head coach that stepped down. The Jets have Mangini trying to learn to be a head coach and BIG issues at QB and RB as well as O Line. The Dolphins should be OK, but they HAVE to get a real QB.
So far, the Pats 2006 schedule looks to be favorable:
Home games vs. Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Denver.
Away games vs. Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Green Bay, Minnesota and Cincinnati
Can't you see another 14-2 season too?

For your post game comments....

I'll be out of town until Thursday next week.
Feel free to comment after the Bronco game here.

Saturday Night Fever

This week seems to be taking forever. Saturday 8pm can't get here soon enough.

I have given you heaps of factual evidence to preview the game, now I'd like to give you my opinion on the game. ('cuz I know you're all dying to hear it)


Denver has a strong running game and they don't want to put the game in Plummer's hands, while the strenght of the Pats is the front 7 stopping the run. Advantage Pats.

Denver finished last in total sacks and 28th in Pass D. How does Tom Brady not exploit a team that is bad against the Pass? Advantage Pats.

The pressure is on Plummer to prove he's a big game QB. The pressure is on Shannahan to prove he can win wtihout Elway, the pressure is on the 13-3 Broncos by being home team favorites. Let's face it, the Pats have been there, done that. They have no pressure on them whatsoever. IF they happen to lose, so what? Looking back at this season did you ever expect them to be where they are now? I know I didn't, this is just icing on the cake. Advantage Pats.

Everyone says this SHOULD be a close game. Which team is more likely to have a big mistake in a tight game, the team that's NEVER been there before or the one that's won the last 2 superbowls? Which team is more likely to come up with the big play, the 2 time defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots or the team with all the pressure on it? Advantage Pats

The Denver Broncos made their living this season on jumping out to a lead then running the clock out, so don't be surprised if they get ahead by 7, 10 or 14 points to start the game. Fear not though, if the Pats are within 10 points at halftime they win. If the Pats have a lead at the half it will be a blowout.

I can see the Pats down 10-7 at halftime or maybe 13-7 then dominating the second half to win 24 - 13 going away.

The statistical breakdown of wk 6 at Denver

Here's what the Pats Offense did at Denver in wk 6:

They averaged 6yds per play on 1st down. OUTSTANDING.

The avg distance to go on 3rd down was 3rd and 8.
They converted only 2 of 9 3rd downs in the first half
They converted 4 of 7 in the 2nd half

How in the hell do you average 6yds on first down and end up having 8 yards to go on third down!?!?!?
By having a horrific 2nd down. They averaged only 3 yds per play on 2nd down, including 4 plays with minus yardage. I would guess that the 2nd downs were a result of poor play calling. Perhaps it was because of the lack of personnel that limited what plays they could run. I dunno, but it is mind boggling how bad they were on 2nd down. I will bet that, if the Pats average 6 yds on 1st downs this weekend, they'll win the game.

Denver really didn't have a very good game offensively either. If you take away the 3 drives bolstered by the 'big' plays of 72, 55 and 68 yds, (all occurring on the 2nd play of the drive by the way) here's what Denver actaully did on O:
1 long TD drive consisting of plays of 13,20,21 and 10yds
4 three and outs
4 drives of 19, 17, 19 and 25 yds, each time gaining only one 1st down.

I got bored, what can I say.

10 count'em 10 reasons why you should have confidence in the Pats @ Denver

The Patriots are all saying the right things. It's tough to win at Denver because the team is good, not because of the altitude. If you listen to Belichick talk about the Broncos you'd think THEY were the 2 time defending Super Bowl Champions. Yes, they are a GOOD all around team, but they certainly can - and will be beat this Saturday night. Here's a look at 10 reasons why.

1- 3 of Denver's TD's in wk 6 were set up by the 3 big plays, two bombs and a long run. Belichick's not going to let 3 long plays happen this time around.

2- The 2 long passes and one TD pass were 'defended' by Starks. He's gone.

3- The writers in Denver proclaimed the wk 6 game as Plummer's best in his 3 seasons with the Broncos. Do you think he's likely to repeat that?

4- In wk 6 the D was without Seymour, Bruschi, Hobbs and Hawkins.

5- Chad Brown and Beisel were the Middle LB's. In watching the replay of the game last night, it was blatently obvious how out of position those two guys got themselves on running plays. They overpursued, and the Denver RB just cut back to where they should have been. Conversely,
re-watching last wks game, Beisel did better, but Vrabel was always in position, never letting an O lineman get to him, and filling the running lanes. Fred Taylor had 24 yds rushing.

6- In wk 6 the O was without Mankins (who was ejected in the 1st) Brown, Faulk and Dillon.

7- In wk 6 WITHOUT all those O players, the pats averaged 4.7 yds/carry and Brady threw for 300 yds.

8- The Pats with Brady are 6-0 when facing a team for the 2nd time in a season when the team beat them the first time around. They learn from their mistakes and correct them. I can give you the details on all six if you need them.

9- As one-sided as the wk 6 game was, the Pats were one drive away from tying the game. On that final drive, the Pats went 3 and out because of a drop from Branch and a drop from Givens. Both would have been for first downs. Brady has shown that he is VERY capable of 4th quarter comebacks, wouldn't you agree? Maybe they could have tied or even won the game without the drops.

10- The Broncos are good, but it appears that their schedule just all fell into place for them this season. Here's week1-16, you decide. They lost @ Miami, beat SD at home, (LT got the ball only 17 times) beat KC at home, (good win) won @ J'ville (they're real good) Scraped by Wash at home by 2, beat a depleted NE team at home, lost @ the Giants, beat up a beat up Eagles team
at home, won at shitty Oakland, beat the Jets at home, won at Dallas by 3 (the game the Dallas kicker missed all the FG's and got cut the next day) Lost @ KC, beat baltimore at home (they suck) won @ Buff (Bills were already thinking about tee times at that point in the season) Beat Oakland again, Won @ SD the week after SD was eliminated from the playoffs.
From where I'm standing, I'm not terribly impressed.

I'll give you one more reason, just in case the first 10 reasons aren't enough for you. Mike Shannahan has NEVER won a playoff game without a guy named Elway.

I hope this makes you feel better about Saturday night. I have no doubts at all that the Pats win this game, it's just a matter of figuring out by how much.

Jaguars or Kittens?

Let me preface my post game comments by letting you know that I am thrilled the Pats were able to win handily vs. the Jags. Initially, I was elated with the victory. Afterall the Pats had just beaten a 12-4 team 28 to 3. The Defense was hitting, causing turn overs and getting sacks. While Dillon sucked as usual, Tom Brady did what he had to in order to win the game. I think the first half he had was very under-rated. All anyone harped on was 7 for 17 passing for 70 something yards. A closer look at that first half performance shows the true greatness of Brady. His receivers weren't open early, so rather than force the ball, he threw it away or over their heads so no one could catch it or he even tried running. The point is that he never forced it, he never gave the Jags a chance for an interception. Once again sacrificing possible stats for a patient victory. Of course it wouldn't have hurt him if Branch made the catch at the end of the half or Watson caught his pass that he tipped and was nearly intercepted. Either one would have made brady 8-17 with 100+yds and 2 TD's in the first half. Very respectable if you ask me.

The reason why I needed to preface this post is that, looking back at the game and reading a few different takes on the game, the Pats played pretty badly. Had fumbles gone the other way on the Brady fumbled shotgun snap, the Brady strip sack and the Ben Watson fumble, we would be talking about how the Pats gave the game away. What is very obvious is that the Pats will need to be MUCH MUCH better to have a shot AT Denver.

More to come...

Only Hours to go Until Kickoff!!!

Some awards to hand out before we delve back into Saturdays game.

First, Bruschi shared the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award with Steve Smith.

Second, Doug Flutie won the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week for that awesome drop kick.

Third. Tom Brady (10 votes) came in 3rd in the MVP balloting behind Alexander (19 votes) and Manning (13 votes). Just another example of lack of respect that the Pats can hang their hats on and rally around in the playoffs!

TIDBITS:

The Patriots can set an NFL record with 10th playoof win in a row tomorrow night. They are currently tied with GB circa 1960's with 9 straight.

The Pats are the only NFL team to have at least 9 wins in each of the last 5 seasons. How's that for parity in the league?

Walt Anderson is the Ref for the Pats-Jags game. This is remotely significant because he was the Ref in week 2 @Carolina when the Pats had their season high 12 accepted penalties.

Evidently Dillon still hates the media, as he had a few angry words to say to reporters who were pestering him at his locker yesterday. Maybe he'll actually come to play tomorrow.

The Jags are 1 of 11 NFL teams to run more than they passed this year. They passed 487 x and ran 502 x for a differential of -15. The Pats conversely, passed564 x and ran only 439 x for a differential of +125, by far the widest margin of any playoff team.

Since the ESPN 'experts' still haven't made their Wild card picks, here are the Sports Illustrated experts' picks:

Banks- Pats 20-13 Skins 27-24 Carolina 23-17 Pitt 30-27

Chadiha- Pats 31-14 TB 14-10 Carolina 28-21 Cincy 35-31

Demasio Pats 24-13 TB 17-13 NY 31-17 Cincy 33-31

King Pats 30-13 Was 24-16 NY 17-13 Pitt 27-25

Silver Pats 20-0 Was 21-20 Carolina 34-31 Cincy 38-35

Dr. Z Pats 24-10 Was 17-13 NY 21-20 Pitt 27-24

SI's experts (above) final power rankings have the Pats 6th and Jags 8th

I still can't find ANYBODY that thinks the Jags will win.

So here's the final score:
Patriots 24 Jaguars 13

Anyone else care to venture a guess?

Pats vs Jags

Well, they got the 'ideal' matchup when they drew Jax. Warm weather team, primarily a running O, a secondary that isn't very deep, an immobile quarterback (assuming Del Rio isn't lying and they start Leftwich) and a team with almost NO playoff experience.

-The Pats are favored by 8.
-The weather on Saturday night is expected to be 20-25 degrees with little or no chance of snow. Winds 7-8 mph.
-I've yet to find a national guy that has picked Jax to win this one. Given his history though, Ron Borges of the Globe might pick Jax. (remember he picked the Rams to beat the Patriots 73-0 in SB 36)
-In the final ESPN power rankings, the Patriots finished 4th, behind the Colts, Seattle and Denver. The Jags finished 11th. What does that really say about a 12-4 team? Only 3 other teams in the NFL had 12 or more wins by the way.

The Numbers

Overall Offense:
Pats 7th, Jags 15th
Passing Yds/gm
Pats 2nd, Jags 19th
Rush Yds/gm
Pats 24th, Jags 10th

Overall Defense:
Pats 26th, Jags 6th
Pass yds/gm allowed
Pats 31st, Jags 7th
Rush yds/gm allowed
Pats 8th, Jags 14th

Matchups:

I'm pretty confident that the Pats D will be able to shut down the Jags O given the fact that the Jags are a run oriented team and the Pats have recently shown the ability to stop the run. Fred Taylor and Greg Jones are both bigger backs and while Taylor has some explosiveness, he still qualifies as the type of bigger back that the Pats have always shown the ability to stop. IF the Jags decide to come out throwing they may find a mismatch with their tall receivers against out short secondary. They have 2 guys 6'4 and one 6'6. Their shortest receiver is their best, Jimmy Smith at 6'1, still an advantage over say, Hobbs at 5'9.

I see no reason why the Pats can't score at least 24 points against the Jacksonville Defense. They have 2 pretty good corners, one of which might not play on Sat. The #3 and 4 CB's on the Jags are a rookie and an undrafted rookie. It's interesting how everyone talks about how great the Jax D-line is, yet they are only 14th v.s the run, giving up 106 yds/game. It appears that the Patriots actually have a choice on O, spread'em out with 4 wide to force the rookie CB's into mismatches or line up with 3 TE's and run all over'em, playing ball control.
Ideally, I THINK the Pats should come out with the spread game, exploit the mismatches it presents, get a 10 or 14 point lead then play smashmouth. In the process, once J'ville gets behind they'll have to become a one dimensional, passing Offense with an immoble Leftwich a sitting duck for the likes of Colvin and McGinest.

An area of advantage for the Pats might also be the kicking game.
Josh Miller is 4th in the league with a 45.6 yd avg.
The Jags punter is 14th with a 42.2 yd avg

While we all know what Vinatieri can do in the cold and playoffs,
Josh Scobee is almost perfect this year inside 39yds, but from 40-49
yds, he is only 5-10.

Much like the Pats, the Jags don't really feature anythinkg special in the way
of a kick/punt returner.

So, are the Jacksonville Jaguars for real? I say NO. In addition to the evidence above, here's why:

1 The Jaguars have played a favorable schedule. They lost twice to Indy. They also lost to the hapless Rams. Their 4th loss was to Denver, a ligit team. They did beat Seattle but at home and on the first week of the season. They beat Pitt - with Tommy Maddox at QB! They also beat the Jets, Houston 2x, Cleveland, Arizona, San Fran, Baltimore and Tenn 2x. I am thoroughly unimpressed.

2 Just as the Patriots appear to be returning to health, the Jags are beginning to hurt. DE's Spicer and Hayward, 14 sacks between them, are both banged up. Their leading tackler, ILB Mike Peterson is also hurting and playing with a cast on his wrist (that ought to feel real good in the cold). Starting CB Kenny Wright hurt his knee last week and that may leave an untested rookie to start. Don't forget that Del Rio has elected to play Leftwich at QB, returning after missing 5 games with an ankle injury.


My pick? I think I've already said. I'll post my predicted score and a few updates on Friday.

Last Sunday and The Playoffs

It was a terrific game plan amassed by Belichick and his staff on Sunday. Try to win. Try to win, just with Brady, Dillon, Seymour and any other starter on the bench. I guess that the Dolphin game proved that the Pats really do have quality depth, as the 2nd and 3rd stringers nearly defeated the Dophin regulars.
Once he settled in, Matt Cassel had a solid game against a pretty good defense. He will be a starter in this league, just not here. I am convinced though, that Cassel was under direct order to throw the ball away on the final 2 point conversion. The last thing anyone wanted on Sunday was OT. Actually, I was hoping that they'd just go ahead and kick an extra point to make it 28-27.
Speaking of extra points, I sincerely hope Belichick spoke with Saban about the Flutie thing before the game. What an insulting play that was. Here Saban is, trying to win, trying to prove to his team that they CAN win in NE, and Flutie's drop kicking extra points. That's not strategy, it's a gimick and you will never see it again. So with a great loss, the Pats are on to the playoffs and the ideal opponent.



THE PLAYOFFS

Wild card weekend:
Jags @ NE
Pitt @ Cincy

Carolina @ NY
Wash @ TB

Bye weeks:
Indy
Denver

Seattle
Chicago

With my heart as a Pats fan, Here's how I see it...

...in the AFC
Pats over Jags, Pitt over Cincy

Pats @ Denver and Pitt @ Indy
Pats over Denver, Indy over Pitt

Pats@ Indy,
Pats over Indy (after Pitt physically beats the crap out of Indy)

...in the NFC
TB over Wash, NY over Carolina

TB @ Seattle and NY @ Chicago
Seattle and Chicago win

Chicago @ Seattle
Seattle wins only because they are home.

Patriots vs Seattle in Super Bowl XL


The quote of the season came after the game on sunday, when patriots punter Josh Miller was asked to comment on Flutie's extra point. "Just so everybody knows, I'm the back-up drop kicker." That's great stuff.

Look for another post later today with some stats and thoughts on JAX.