Playoff Picture: Who do We Want to Win This Week?

The playoff picture is getting more and more into focus as the season winds down. I can't believe there are only FIVE games left! Where did the season go? By now you guys all know the importance of the first round bye and as of this moment, the Pats are still the 4th seed and would host KC in a playoff game. No one's been hotter than KC lately, but I think they are peaking at the wrong time. Indy, Baltimore and SD are 1,2 and 3 while KC is 5 and Denver is 6th (soon to be out). With that being said let's try to figure out who Patriots Nation wants to see lose this week:

Baltimore at Cincy Thursday night on NFL network baby!
Once upon a daytime fieldy, while they plundered weak and dreary
Bird or beast shall win the contest but should the Ravens pass the test?
Nevermore!
-Tommy Allan Poe

San Diego at Buffalo.
Stranger things have happened, but we've got to pull for the Bills in this one. May the legend of OJ come back and ....nevermind. We're looking for the Bolts to get their 3rd loss. This may be a trap game for SD after a tough win last week against Oak and a big game vs Denver next week. It's gonna snow this weekend in Buffalo, right?

Jets at Green Bay.
Not that it really matters, but the Jets are still in contention. I'd like to see them lose every game for the rest of the year. REMEMBER when I tell you that the damn loss to the NYJ's is going to come back to haunt us when it comes time to determine playoff seeds.

Jags at Miami.
Hmmm. Tough call. On one hand you always want the 'phins to lose, this year in particular so they have nothing to play for when the Pats go down there next week. On the other hand, a Miami win would almost assure the the Jags are out of the playoff picture. I'm declaring that we become Jaguar fans on Sunday.

Seattle at Denver.
Sheesh, this just doesn't get any easier does it? We want Denver out of it because we NEVER want to have to play that team again. HOWEVER there is the little matter of the Pats owning the rights to Seattle's first round pick in the up coming draft. Based on the number of tough games coming up for Denver, I think we're looking for a better draft pick here. As they said on south park, "Lets go Broncos." I never thought I'd say that.

There you have it, the best possible scenarios for the Pats as far as I can tell. Of course it goes without saying that we have to hope the Pats can find a way to beat the Lions. Have you heard how Belichick described them? You'd think they were 9-2, not 2-9. Whatever works.

Pats 35 Lions 3.

p.s. Thanks for the love!

p.s.s. Anybody got room for one more on Sunday?

Try as they might...

The Patriots tried as hard as they could to give the game to the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon, it's just that Rex Grossman didn't want it either. I've broken this week down into categories for your reading pleasure.

TOM BRADY
Yes, he threw a bad interception, but that play aside he looked like a champion. The difference between the Bears and Patriots is the QB and Brady made it obvious this week. The series after the bears scored because of the 45 yd penalty was crucial to the outcome and Brady was at his best. The 3rd down play where he scrambled and found Watson was one of the best plays I've ever seen him make. If you saw the replay, Watson stopped running when Brady scrambled. But Brady knew he was in single coverage and gave Watson the chance to make a play. Superb. Of course that play wasn't as entertaining as the 11 yd scramble on 3rd in nine in which Brady toasted Urlacher. Tom Terrific then capped off his genious when he audibled to the QB sneak on 3rd and 3. BRILLIANT!

Best play of the Game
Brady finding Watson on the scramble.

Worst play of the Game
Josh McDaniels call of a double reverse for a loss of 8

Second worst play of the Game
Watson fumbles, Caldwel recovers and looks like he's going in for the touchdown....but then he fumbles and Chicago recovers.

Best thing Fox Sports did all night
The Benny Hill theme music over the hi-lights.

Second best thing Fox Sports did
I LOVE how they put the down and distance graphic right on the field. I sincerely hope that CBS steals that.

Player of the Game
Asante Samuel

Oooooo
Junior Seau's broken arm was the grossest thing I've seen since Joe Thiesman's leg.

That Sucks
The Pats are REALLY going to miss Seau. Notice how well Chicago was able to run the ball as soon as he left the game?

Almost crapped my pants when
Bruschi stayed down shortly after Seau left the game.

Under-rated
Kevin Faulk's 262nd reception puts him #1 all time in receptions by a Patriots running back.

Worst call in the history of pass interference
I don't think I have to tell you.

You know it's a bad call when
A former QB turned broadcaster (Aikman) says it's a bad call and that it should be a reviewable play.

OOPS
Lovie Smith calls timeout as Gostkowski misses his field goal just so he can re-kick and make it!

Unaffordable
I've been telling people for weeks now that Asante Samuel will not return to the Pats next year. The cap is going way up and someone will give him 8 or 9 million per season and you know the Pats aren't going there with him. They already tried to sign he and Graham, but they both want to test the unrestricted market. Asante can "thank" himself for assuring a HUGE payday with yesterday's nationally televised performance. (let's see if anyone picks up on that)

Krager
Pro Pick'em is pure luck. BUT, I'm not going to 'let' anyone catch up.

Does anybody remember
Who picked the Pats and the Cowboys to go to the super bowl? Looks like "them Cowboys" might have an easier time getting there than the Pats.

Tell your friends you heard it here and remember, the best complement you can give a blogger is to comment so he knows that someone is reading.

Happy Thanksgiving to You and Your Families

As Thanksgiving approaches we take time to reflect on the blessings in our lives that we should be thankful for. I for one thank God that I'm not a Green Bay fan. They are a pathetic football team. They make me feel appreciative of our Patriots. There isn't a team out there that you'd say the Pats have no chance of beating. How many teams in the league can say that, six?
I'm not going to say much about last week's game because of that. GB simply stinks, the Pats took care of business instead of being sucked into a trap game. I'll give them credit for that. Let me ask you some questions about the game:

Where was Doug Gabriel? I saw him for one or two running plays, that's it. I certainly hope that one fumble against the Jets doesn't doghouse him for the year. It seems like he's tried real hard to be productive for this team and I hope he gets a chance.

How nice was it to see Stephen Neil return to the O Line?

How bad has Brett Favre gotten? Man, I love Brady, but I hope that we'll all know when to say goodbye to him.

Didn't your jaw drop when Maroney faked Barnett out of his jock strap on the way to a TD?

Where was this Offense against the @#%&ing Jets?


Thanks for YOUR response to those crucial life and death questions. I'd like to have a little speculation fun before moving on to Da Bears game.

If the playoffs started today, The Pats would be the fourth seed. Here's how it would shake out and then my idiotic try at picking the SB based on that.

BYE WEEK:
1 Indy
2 Ravens (tied with SD, but beat SD head to head)

Wild Card:
#6 Jaguars at #3 SD
#5 Broncos at #4 Pats

*I THINK the Jags get #6 over KC by virtue of a better AFC record.

Pats over Broncos
SD over Jags

SD over Indy
Pats over Ravens

Pats over SD

Piece of cake right?

Doing a bit more research based on strength of schedule, I think the Pats will swap with the Ravens by seasons end so it will go Indy, Pats, SD, Ravens, then either Broncos Jags or KC for the last two spots. At any rate, in this order, when SD beats Indy, the AFC championship would be SD AT NE in 2 degrees and snow.
Thanks for humoring me.


AND THE NUMBER ONE REASON WHY THE PATS WILL BEAT DA BEARS.....

Teams playing on the road for a third time in a row only win 34% of the time. I haven't found it, but if you include the fact that the bears won the first two, the odds of winning 3 in a row on the road have got to be VERY slim.

The number two reason why the pats SHOULD beat Da Bears....

(Please forward this Josh "Cletus" McDaniels)
The Bears are susceptible to the RUN. RUN the ball Joshy. Run. Run. Run. Then Run some more. Here's what the Bears run defense has done since their week 7 bye:

week 8 - Frank Gore 111 yds
" 9 - Ronnie Brown 157 yds
" 10 - Tiki Barber 141 yds
" 11 - Jets 3 backs 108 yds

Here are the Bears stats vs the pass this season:
#1 giving up a mere 152 yds through the air
#2 in INT's with 15
A total of 25 sacks.

IF Joshy lets the Pats run, they win.

Chicago wins if:
They return a kick for a TD. The Pats special teamers will be tested this week.

PATS 16 Da Bears 6



10 things I think I think (thanks Peter King at SI):

1 - I'll route for San Francisco to make it back to the playoffs. They are one game out at 5-5 so it's a real possibility.

2 - The AFC representative will win the Super Bowl

3 - It was great to see Peyton Manning lose this week.

4 - The Pats shouldn't have given up on Terry Glenn. She was instumental in the Dallas victory this week.

5 - Seattle will lose 6 or 7 games this year. (better Pats pick)

6 - Brett Favre should have retired 2 years ago

7 - Denver has problems. How do they always beat the Pats?

8 - The Pats toughest remaining game is AT Miami.

9 - I want to kiss Suzy Kolber too! (but I don't think I'm her type)

10 - Michigan had their chance and does NOT deserve a re-match with Ohio State.
- Jim Tressel will be one of the best NFL coaches within the next 3 years - if he wants to.

I.J.T.P.T.P.O.T.P.E.F.A.F.T.

(I'm just too pissed to post on this pathetic excuse for a football team.)

Who do they think they are, the Bruins? the Celtics?

Belichick was in over his head against Mangini today. He had NO ANSWER for the Jets offense. Did you ever think you'd say that? All you need to know is the Jets had one drive of 15 plays and another of 16 plays. The Jets? And what was with the DB's playing off the Jet receivers? Pennington throws the ball about as hard as I can with my LEFT hand. They should have pressed coverage and gone after his "balloon" passes. How many times did you see him float one all the way accross the field to a wide open receiver who was then able to turn and run before the DB could even get near him?


IF MCDANIELS ISN'T FIRED TOMORROW, THEN BELICHICK HAS NO INTENTION OF WINNING ANOTHER GAME.

I've got a new cheer for Pats fans when playing the Jets. J. O. S. H. SUCKS SUCKS SUCKS.

Hmmm let's see...the Jets successfully blitz on every pass play beating the snot out of Brady and Dillon is running for like 12 yds a carry...what sorts of plays should we run on offense?
McDaniels (also insert Cletus from the Simpsons): run Maroney and throw deep!!!!!
Anyone with half a brain:Dillon hard up the gut and SCREENS AND DRAWS!!!!!!!SCREENS AND DRAWS!!!!!!!!!!
McDaniels: not one screen or draw ALL DAY!
Run the ball down to the goal line then pass pass pass. AND on top of that, line up in a formation where there is not even the THREAT of the run on the goal line. Hello? If you have to pass on the goal line, play action always works. Ask Mike Vrabel.
How about the 2 minute warning before half, we come back from commercial and Brady has to call a timeout because he doesn't have a play! Good job Cletus!

Here's my favorite one though. Last week against Indy, Bob Sanders safety blitz in running situations came through untouched how many times? 5? 6?more? What does Mangini do? Running situation, safety blitz with Eric Coleman. How many times did you see HIM come through untouched?4?5? I'll tell you for a fact that he was second on the team with 8 tackles today. Did McDaniels learn anything from last week's game?
Who is the Green Bay Safety....Marquand Manuel. If he gets into the backfield next week, you need no further evidence that McDaniels SUCKS. You can't blame GB for trying the same thing that worked for two teams in a row, right? Will 'Cletus' McDaniels have an answer?

And PLEASE don't get me started on my friend seymour money...
I've got to stop before I have a stroke. But feel free to continue......

Let's Get To It

We've got a LOT to cover today, so let's get to it.

FIRST, THE INDY GAME.

Indy was very impressive to me on Sunday night. Manning was fantastic, Harrison was un-human, and the defense really brought it. I think you'd expect their offense to be impressive, it always is. However, their defense really impressed me in this game. I'm not talking just the 5 turnovers. They out physicalled the Pats in this game. The hit hard and often, gang tackled and tried to create those turnovers. That's the way the Pats D used to treat the Colts offense in days of old when they'd beat the Colts. (both on the scoreboard and physically). The Pats never really hit anyone, they just tackled or watched the Colt players run out of bounds. They played soft. If ever Indy looked like they could win a Superbowl it is this year.

This post will be a return to the "get rid of McDaniels" campaign. I got a little soft on him when the Pats won a couple of games in a row but let's face it, the play calling against the Colts was just aweful. Once again, you might say they played soft. In the first half you saw 22 power running plays,to out physical and wear down Indy's D. However, they would run successfully to a point then give up and throw. Prime example is the first series of the game: After the cheap offensive pass interference call and it was 2nd and 21 Dillon runs for 10yds, Brady completes 2 in a row to Watson and Jackson. Then Maroney runs for 12, Maroney for 6 Dillon for 7, Dillon for 4 yds to the Indy 34. Then deep pass to triple coverage, ill advised pass intercepted. WHY PASS? On that series they were keeping Manning on the bench, and running for 39yds at 7.8yds per carry. Stick with it, it's working! If you think it was a good idea to try to go over the top, I'll give you that, but then the blame is squarely on Brady for a terrible throw. In the first half the Pats ran 22 times for 98 yds at 4.4 yds per carry. 22 more runs might have produce over 200 yds total for the game, right? "Yeah, but who wants that, let's get cute." That's what I imagine McDaniels saying at half time. Second half included a mere 11 more runs. ONLY 4 to Maroney, only THREE to Dillon. 4 of those rushes were draw plays to Faulk. WHAT THE FAULK!!!! Where was the POWER running game? No, get cute and try to use double fake reverse passes instead. The run was clearly effective, Brady clearly was not sharp, the recievers were obviously having a hard time getting open. What more evidence do you need to run the ball? Instead the Pats played scared because they thought Peyton would score a lot more and they felt inclined to abandon the run to try to win the game in a shootout. The only thing they shot was themselves in the foot. I'll be keeping a close eye on little Joshy.


SECOND, RODNEY

I don't think I have to tell you that the Pats will be in trouble without Rodney for the next 7-8 weeks. Let's not forget to route hardily against Seattle so we can get a high draft pick for Branch and maybe get a safety to eventually replace Rodney. That being said, I personally don't have faith in Pioli's ability to draft a safety. Who have they drafted?
Guss Scott, Dexter Reid and James Sanders, seen any of THOSE guys lately? This year they drafted Willie Andrews and he's been so good they turned him into a WR. Don't forget that Eugene Wilson was drafted as a corner and turned into a safety as a necessity. His play has steadily declined. Maybe they can get a new safety via free agency this off-season, Harrison worked out pretty well wouldn't you say?


THIRD, WHATS HAPPENED TO THIS TEAM AGAINST QUALITY OPPONENTS?

Remember when they could beat anyone? Do you still have that feeling, because I don't. In their last 16 games against teams over .500 the Pats are 8-8. EIGHT and freakin' EIGHT!
In their last 5 games against the Colts and Broncos the Pats are 0-5, been outscored 139-81, and have 12 turnovers. We'll all get back on the bandwagon when they Pats go 7-1 or 8-0 in the second half of the season, but until they actually win another 'Big' game they've got something to prove.


LASTLY, A MORE OPTOMISTIC, HAPPY BLOGGER

Things can only get better in the second half of the season. Not that 6-2 to start is bad, but we all know they could have played much better in every game, with the exception of Minnesota. This is what can go right the rest of the way:

1. Brady and the receivers will only get better. As the weeks go by they can work on getting on 'the same page' whatever that means.

2. Maroney and Jackson. It's becoming obvious that Maroney is the man in the backfield and it is a disgrace that he only got the ball 4 times in the second half vs Indy. He and Jackson will emerge as big time threats in this offense as the playoffs approach.

3. A rediculously easy schedule makes 8-0 the rest of the way a real possibility and 7-1 a probablility. I think 6-2 would be disappointing.

4. Belichick's history. Since 2000 the Pats are 27-21 in the first half of the season and 46-13 in the second half, including the 10-1 playoff record. It's hard to argue with those results.


I'll be looking to post my own midseason grades in the next day or two.

Don't forget to check out our friends at TheBruinsReport.blogspot.com for all your Bruins news and info, now with a podcast!

Enough Already

This feud between the Pats and Indy is just getting stupid at this point. I mean, we're talking about grown men, not high school kids, so what's with these antics and what else will they do to each other before Sunday's game?

First, Polian (the Colts) complains about the Pats field and it gets torn up.
Then Belichick (or someone in with the Pats) requests extra security for Sundays game to protect their employees from Polian.
After that, because the Colts like to complain about opponents not being truthful with their injury reports, Belichicks injury report comes out with 17 guys listed as questionable (Brady again is probable) so the Colts can't complain that the Pats are hiding any injuries.
Not to be outdone, moments later the Colts injury report comes out with - 17 players all questionable.
Now the Pats have added 3 more to the questionable list.

Enough already. Grown men. National Football League. Get over yourselves. As they said in star wars, "This bickering is pointless." I wish the game was tonight, just to end the silliness.

What's next, Belichick fined for 'egging' Polians house on Halloween?


Here are five reasons why the Pats win Sunday night:
-Indy's hurt, Pats are healthy.
-Colts are last in the league in rushing yards allowed, Pats have the 2 headed monster and are 8th in rushing even without trying to run last week.
-If the Colts try to 'stuff' the run, Brady's going to burn the backup safeties.
-Dwight Freeney is always slower on grass
-Belichick has done a damn good job slowing the Colts offense when he has healthy players on D (and he does this time around).

I was reading a Colts blog www.stampedeblue.com and they're bitching and moaning about the lack of respect the media has for the Colts. They think that Tom Brady is the darling of the national media. Perception is everything. Seriously, it's a good site, so check it out.

It's Never Too Early...

Hindsight is always 20/20. I feel like an idiot because I didn't see it coming. The leagues #1 rush defense vs the Pats 2 headed rushing attack, right? It's so obvious now, attack through the air instead of banging your head against a wall. Dee Dee Dee, as Carlos Mencia would say. Great gameplan, terrific execution, but I still can't help but wonder if Minnesota was over-hyped. I mean, the only team they beat was Seattle without Hasselback and Alexander. Either way, Bellichick showed his mastery as he completely out-coached Brad Childress. It was another win and it puts the Pats in the drivers seat for playoff positioning. It's never too early to talk playoffs around here, right?

As the most casual pigskin fans know, the odds of reaching the superbowl quadruple as a #1 or 2 seed vs. a 3, 4, 5 or 6 seed. Last year being the exception of course. So the goal is always get to the playoffs, but if you can lock up a 1 or 2 you're in serious contention. With the win this week the Pats are now 6-1 and in that coveted #2 spot. Defeating Indy this week would make them #1 in the AFC, with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Unfortunately, the playoffs don't start after the Indy game. While it would be great to have the #1 seed entering the playoffs, I simply don't see it happening - whether or not they beat the Colts this weekend. That being said, if the Colts beat the Pats this week, the Pats have NO chance at #1. Let's take a look at who's contending for the top 2 spots and their "losable" games the rest of the way:

INDY 7-0 home v. Cincy and Philly, @NE, @Dallas.

PATS 6-1 home v. Indy and Chicago

DENVER 5-2 SD twice, home to Seattle Cincy then @KC and Pitt

SAN DIEGO 5-2 Denver twice, KC at home then @Cincy and Seattle

RAVENS 5-2 Cincy and Pitt twice home v. Atlanta and @ KC

So MAYBE Indy loses 2 games the rest of the way, more than likely it'll be one.

The Pats would have to win every game the rest of the way, in which case they'd be 15-1, and the #1 seed by virtue of winning the head to head game with INDY. Sorry, it's too much to ask.
Pats will be 14 and 2, or at worst 13-3. AND therefore, the #2 seed.

The rest have virtually no shot at the #2 seed.

While Denver has the head t head tie breaker with the Pats, they already have one more loss than NE. With 2 to play with SD, @ a surging KC as well as CINCY and SEATTLE both of which will be fighing for their playoff lives. Should the Pats go 13-3 Denver has an outside chance to become the #2. But I can't see Denver only losing one more time.

San Diego is in a bit of turmoil with their star player suspended for 4 games. Their remaining schedule is almost identical to Denver's. Same scenario, they're going to lose more than one more game.

I give an outside chance to Baltimore even though I think their offense stinks. However, they'd have to sweep both games with Pitt and both games with Cincy. That doesn't usually happen in that division.

The conclusion is that, even losing to Indy and Chicago this month, the Pats will probably still earn the #2 seed as long as the win their "easy" games. That being said, even if the beat Indy this week, it's hard to see Indy losing a second time and the Pats would probably still get the #2 seed. I like the Pats chances at INDY for a superbowl berth. Who's better than Brady's 10-0 in domes?



Offensive stat of the week: Pats are #1 in the NFL in redzone TD % at 64.3%.
Defensive stat of the week: Pats are now 3rd in the NFL in points allowed behind Chicago and Denver.

So what about Indy this week?
If I couldn't see the answer last week, what makes you think I'll figure out this week's gameplan? Here's the semi-educated guess:

The Pats will be able to run (Indy's last in the league agianst the run). It just so happens that Indy's starting safeties are injured and probably won't play. Once the run is established, the Pats will control the game with play action. The untested, backup safeties will bite on the run and you'll see Ben Watson and Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson over the top for big gains. Indys D will have no answer and the Pats will put up 35-40 points this week. Clock killin' Corey Dillon will come in and pound Indy in the fourth, eat up the clock and not give Indy the ball with 1:30 left like denver did.

The big question is how will the Pats D contain Indy? Belichick won't tell us, so we're going to have to wait and see. I do think the Pats will hold them to under 30 points even though the Pats D hasn't been tested like this before. I don't think this game will be a 'whoever has the ball last wins' type. The Pats win this one "running" away, same score as Indy beat them last year.
New England 40, Indy 21. The Patriots franchise just has that kind of karma.

Call me a homer, but tell your friends you heard it hear!