The Bubble

There's really not much to watch for in the last preseason game on Thursday. Anyone who's important will probably play very little if at all. There are some interesting position battles that have yet to work themselves out. The following players will be on the bubble and fighting for a roster spot against the Giants.



QB's

Obviously Brady and Cassell are on the roster. If Guttierez has a decent night, and I think he's looked pretty good so far, the Pats may be unwilling to demote him to the practice squad. He's played well enough to get attention from elsewhere. That would mean Vinnie gets 'cut' and hangs around the team until a position becomes available.



(THE PRACTICE SQUAD. A player has to be waived by the team and if no one claims him in 24 hours he can be re-signed to your practice squad. However, any team can claim any practice squad player from any other team as long as he spends 5 weeks on the new team's active gameday roster.)



WR's

With Brown and Jackson officially placed on the P.U.P. today, there is theoretically only one WR spot open. Gaffney, Stallworth, Moss and Welker make the cut. That leaves last year's leading receiver, Reche Caldwell on the bubble with Kelley Washington. The argument for Washington is that he's big and he plays well on special teams, however he's not as familiar with the Offense as Caldwell. The argument for Caldwell is that he's got the rapport with Brady and knows the O, however he doesn't play special teams and he's an expensive 5th receiver at 1.5 mill. If they keep Caldwell and Washington it would be at the expense of a DB, possibly Mel Mitchell.


TE's

The best tight end on this team is David Thomas, but unfortunately he will be starting the year on the P.U.P. recovering from a broken foot. So Watson makes the team and Brady will most likely make the team now that he's practicing again. Marcellus Rivers looked better than Watson on Friday night and he's a good blocker, but he'll be on the bubble with second year man Garrett Mills. Mills has looked lost at times this year and he's not a great blocker, so look for Mills to be cut.


DB's

There may be a surprise at this position depending on how many DB's they keep and where they play, if they consider Merriweather a safety now that Asante is back. At Safety they have Rodney, Wilson, Sanders, Willie Andrews and Mel Mitchell. At CB they have Asante, Hobbs, Gay, James and Merriweather. The bubble players would be Andrews, Mitchell and possibly James. Andrews has played both corner and safety, returned punts and been effective on special teams, I think he sticks. Because Mitchel is considered another Izzo on special teams he will probably stick too. If the Pats are happy with Asante's condition and Merriweather's performance to date, then Tory James will be the man to go.

On a bit of a side note, I'm pretty upset with the Pats for giving in to Asante. The Pats have given up their right to franchise him again next season as long as he plays 75% of the time and the Pats acheive a certain # of wins. Perhaps the thinking is that he won't be worth the 9+ million they'll have to pay him if they franchise him next season. My concern is that he'll take too many risks in trying to increase his interception #'s for a big payday and give up big plays instead. Thanks for allowing me to vent, now back to the roster bubbles.

The rest of the roster seems pretty much set, with a couple of O Lineman (rookies Oldenberg and Elgin) going to the practice squad. So watch to see how the Bubble players perform, there won't be much else to see. Don't be surprised to see the Pats try to trade one or two of these bubble guys for a draft pick rather than just cutting them.


I'm nearly finished with my research to make some predictions, so watch for the next post when I'll tell you what the Pats record will be and who they'll beat in the superbowl.

They were good, BUT

I have had a lot of people approach me since Friday's game and tell me how great the Patriots played. Yes they were good, BUT there are some things that still bother me.



Stephen Gostkowski bothers me. OK, maybe he just makes me nervous. Did you know he's only 3 of 6 in preseason play? He hasn't made a kick over 32 yds! I am SHOCKED that Bill hasn't brought in another kicker to challenge Gost or at least make him concentrate a little harder. It was a rare occasion when Vinatieri was the lone kicker in camp. He used to bring in an extra kicker all the time to press Vinatieri, suddenly Bill os OK with a second year guy? I know it's pre-season and the guy was 8-8 in the playoffs, but right now I have no confidence that he'll make the game winner. Do you?



The passing game still bothers me. I don't think Brady is on the same page with enough of the wide receivers. Yes he's completed 67% of his passes, but too many of them are dump offs to the RB's. As evidenced by his only getting 7.2 yds per pass. In addition, the leading receivers are Faulk (9 catches) and Evans (7 catches) both running backs. Next is Welker and Washington with 5 catches each. If you take away the 37 yard duck that Brady threw to Stallworth, then he's got only 3 catches for 23 yds. Moss hasn't played a down and he hasn't even practiced since August 1st. Hopefully Moss will come back soon and the game planning (when they actually start game planning) will increase the effectiveness of the wideouts.


The Pass defense also bothers me. In Friday's game, Delhomme and Carr completed 65% of their passes. There was also the little matter of the long TD against the starting defense to end the first half. Maybe the return of Asante helps, but that remains to be seen.


I'm not trying to be a pessimist here. There were many positives to build on in Friday's game. I think that my job as your blogger this year will be to keep everyone level headed and realistic about this team. I'm sure every one of us expects the Pats to win the superbowl and anything short of that will shock us. This is a team that has yet to play a meaningful down and has a lot of work to do to become a playoff contender, nevermind a superbowl winner. So don't get down on me for pointing out 'negatives', I've merely pointed out some stats today that are bothersome. And will continue to do so until they win their 4th title!

Keep on reading and tell your friends you heard it here!

Making Excuses?

Sorry for the delay in posting this week. Unfortunately, I simply haven't had time to do much research this week. We are leaving for our anual San Diego trip and things have been quite hectic. I'll try to have some new stuff for you upon my return next week.

Thanks for checking in!

What To Watch For

OK, I know it's just the preseason, but MAN will it be great to see the Pats take the field again this Friday night in Tampa Bay. The starters probably won't log much time and some of the nicked up stars might not play at all (Moss, Maroney). There are some interesting storylines that have developed through the course of camp that bear watching during the preseason games.

The first happens to be the one that I'm most excited about, Zone Blocking. It has been perfected in Denver, where they've had something like 6 different RB's rush for over 1000 yds in the last 8 seasons. Zone blocking is executed by the O-Line on run plays. What it boils down to is that they block the guy in front of them in the direction they want to run. So if the defensive tackle is to Matt Light's right, he blocks him right. If he's on Light's left, he blocks him left. Then they essentially call the play "run left", hand the ball to Maroney who works his way down the line watching for a hole. When the hole opens, he makes one cut, bursts through it and takes off downfield. This is how Maroney's offense at Minnesota worked, so it's what he's used to and what he excells at. It is different from a traditional running play in which the play would be designed for Maroney to run specifically between Light and Mankins for instance. In that case Light and Mankins would have to move a diffender out of that space so Maroney could run through. Now it's just putting a body on a defender and letting Maroney pick the hole. It should result in some big runs this season especially since teams will have to play only 6 or 7 men in the box out of respect for the new deep passing threat's Moss and Stallworth.

Speaking of the O-line, the second storyline to watch is who will emerge as the starting right Tackle. Nick Kaczur and Ryan O'Callaghan have split practice time with the first team almost 50/50. Recently Billy Yates has also gotten some reps with the first team. The O-Line should be a strength this year and the competition at right tackle will only help.

Another Battle that has started to emerge is who will replace Samuel. At the beginning of camp, Chad Scott got the nod until he was injured. Then Randall Gay got most snaps with the first team. More recently the coaches have been giving more snaps to veteran CB Tory James and rookie Brandon Merriweather. Some scribes are writing that James as a starter is not a good thing, as he was torched on a few occassions last year with Cincy. I think that, unless you had intimate knowledge of Cincy's D last year, you can't tell how much blame to put on James. By the way, people are starting to RAVE about Merriweather saying he will get significant time on the field and have a big impact this season.

The other camp battle that emerged is the battle of Punters. I, like most, assumed that Josh Miller would be the punter now that he's healthy again. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend." NFL Europe punter Danny Baugher has been booming the ball thusfar. He has had by far the strongest leg with the most hangtime and distance. What might save Miller is that the Pats know he can do it in live games and in bad weather not to mention that he's been great downing punts inside the ten. Baugher hasn't shown as much skill in the area downing punts.

Returning punts and kicks is another big question mark. Last year Maroney was 5th in the league in kick return average. You CAN'T use him this year because you don't have Dillon any more so you can't afford to lose Maroney to an injury in the kicking game. Ellis Hobbs averaged 38 yds a return and even scored a TD, but I don't need to tell you how important he is at CB this year. So it will be interesting to see who emerges as the returners this year. Faulk is reliable and experienced at catching kicks, as is Troy Brown if he can get on the field. Wes Welker should emerge as the primary punt returner. Others returning kicks are Bam Childress and Kelvin Kight, but both are long shots to make this team.

Lastly, it will be interesting to see the wide receivers in action. How do they look and how well are they clicking with Brady? As it Currently stands the only guys that are locks to make the team are Welker, Moss and Gaffney. Stallworth, Caldwell, Washington and Brown would be the next group that probably have a job. Stallworth is just now starting to practice after missing 10 days, Caldwell and Washington have been unremarkable though Caldwell's been better lately, and Brown hasn't even practiced yet. The rest are just camp fodder, though I'd expect Childress and Kight to possible make the practice squad. As of today, expect Welker, Moss, Gaffney, Stallworth, Caldwell and Washington on the roster, with Brown and Chad Jackson on PUP and Childress and Kight on the practice squad. Don't be surprised to see Childress get picked up by another team - he will make some plays in preseason games.

Enjoy the game and tell your friends you heard it here!