Wednesday, January 10, 2007

No Sir, I Don't Like It.

I'm going to take some extra time to analyze this week's game, because quite frankly I'm having a very hard time coming up with 2 or 3 keys for the Pats to win the game. Yeah, I know, contain Tomlinson and make Rivers beat you. What else, the generic "don't turn the ball over"? I'd like to think I can give a little bit more insight than that. However, scour as I might, I've yet to find much info to pass on that's worth anything.

I couldn't help but worry about The Pats as a strong, smart Ohio State team had it's ass handed to it by a faster, more atheletic Florida team. Any of those adjectives apply to this weeks game? Strong, smart Pats; Fast, atheletic Chargers? I look at it in a positive light, if the Pats get beat because San Diego is so much quicker at every position, then Belichick and Pioli will set to work getting faster - especially on Defense. No Pats LB can run with Gates, nevermind Tomlinson. Are you confident that Hawkins could tackle Gates or LT after watching Cothery zoom right past him last week?

Not to sound all doom and gloom, the Pats do have some things working for them. It's just a matter of how much do these advantages really mean when it's time to take the field. In no particular order because I've yet to figure it all out, here are some advantages for the Pats:

Rivers inexperience and play down the stretch. Was the 18-53 with 2TD's and 2picks combined in weeks 15 and 16 the Rivers we can expect to see on Sunday? Or will we see the QB that has led massive come from behind 4th quarter victories?

Shottenheimer (however you spell it) Marty. His miserable playoff record speaks for itself. 5 wins, 12 losses. He's 1-3 in the 4 games in which he was the #1 seed. However, his notoriously conservative playoff approach may be lessened because he's letting the offensive coordinator call the plays this year.

The underdog role. Not many are giving the Pats a chance in this one. The Pats always thrive when nobody says they can do it.

Belichick. Obviously and advantage. He is 4-0 in the playoffs against the #1 seed.

Brady. No doubt the most clutch QB of our time. You've got to wonder if he still feels ill will towards Marty after the little war of words the last time the Bolts beat the injured Pats, not that he needs extra motivation.

A chemistry set. (not really) If they could devise a test for HGH (human growth hormone) maybe they could test Merriman this week and have him suspended for the game. There is currently no test that detects HGH. Then again, if there was, half the NFL or more would be suspended.

So it is back to the drawing board for me and a longer wait for those of you so anxiously awaiting my astute analysis.

On a side note, I think it's BS that you cannot buy a ticket for the game unless your billing address is in southern California. The Chargers are only selling to SoCal residents. If you want to go to the game, you'r gonna have to pay a scalping agency. Not that I was going to go, just that I think it's BS. "We want to maximize our home field advantage", was the Statement released by the Bolts.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Jetting on to San Diego

It was a great game yesterday, though it was very close for longer than I would have liked. In today's post, I'll review the best and worst of the playoff victory over the Jets and see how I did with my three keys to the game.

The Best
Balance on Offense. The Pats ran the ball 38 times and threw it 34 times. In a great little spurt, the Pats ran to the line and ran the same running play (mostly with Faulk) four times in a row for about 8 yds a pop. Joshy mostly did a pretty good job. He had a balanced attack, went deep a few times and exploited an injured CB relentlessly.

Picking up the blitz. Unlike the previous meeting where the Pats sent out 4 and 5 pass catchers, they expected a blitz on every down and had many more routes with 2 and 3 receiving options and 6,7 and 8 blockers. It was a fitting end to the game when the Jets blitzed and Brady burned them with a TD pass to Faulk.

Jabar Gaffney. 8 catches for 100 yds. Yes he dropped a TD pass and he ran backwards to be brought down short of the first down on a third and eight play, but who would have ever expected him to have more than 2 or 3 catches, nevermind be the leading receiver on the team.

Stephen Gostkowski. 3-3 FG's and 4-4 extra points. It was great to see the Rookie get some playoff experience and do it successfully.

Vince Wilfork. A stout force against the run all day, got some pressures on Pennington and made the game changing play picking up the Pennington lateral.

I'm not going to talk about #22 anymore, not after his attempt to be selfish and unPatriotlike in a Globe article the day of the start of the playoffs.

The Worst

One bad play on Defense. The Cotchery TD catch and run where he was untouched. Antonio Gates makes his living running that very play - better learn to stop it quickly.

Richard Seymour. A few noticeable missed tackles, he was not even a factor in the game until his garbage time sack. Good thing we gave him the money.

Not much else, the Pats maybe should have done better than they did in the red zone, they settle for far too many FG's. The red zone was the worst part of Joshy's day by far.


Now how did the Pats do with my 3 keys to the game?

1 - 3rd down conversions. The Pats kicked ass. They were 11-16 and held the Jets to a meager 3-11.

2 - Special teams. The Pats held Miller to an average at best day including stopping him cold on the 10 yd line. Sauerbrun was solid and Gostkowski excelled.

3 - Big Plays. Other than the one Cotchery play, the Pats eliminated the big play.


Look for many more posts this week as we look forward to San Diego!

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

A Look Forward

(Part 2 focusing on the Pats V. the Jets.)


So now you know what has happened in this series so far this season. Knowing what we know about the earlier matchups and the outcomes, I thought it would be easy to determine what will happen on Sunday. Then I looked at the spread and I had to look again, opening line on Monday was Pats by nine and today it still stands at nine. Hmmm. The previous two meetings were decided by a total of 10 points, but the Pats are favored by nine. What do the oddsmakers know? It is a line that will make even the most die hard Pats fan consider taking the Jets with the points. Because most of the betting will be on the Jets getting nine, the odds makers must think the Pats will win by ten or more. If there are any bettor's out there, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to use common sense here.

So let's say Pats by ten, 20-10. How could that happen?


Three keys to a Pats victory over the Jets on Sunday (and I don't mean by ten).

1. 3rd down.
The Jets O finished 4th overall in 3rd down conversions. They convert an astounding 43.8% of the time on 3rd down. The Pats D on the other hand has a 35.9 % success rate against it, good for 8th in the league. Conversely, the Pats O is right behind the Jets at 42.9%, 5th in the league, while the Jets D is at 36.5%, 10th in the league. Something's got to give. Don't get too upset or too excited if you see 2nd and 12 or 3rd and 8, hold your breath and watch what will happen on third down.

2. Special teams.
Obviously the Pats coverage teams stunk out the joint last Sunday against Pacman Jones. The Jets only pro-bowler is Justin Miller, their kick returner. The Pats need to do a great job covering this kid and it will be interesting to see if Belichick shows enough faith in his special teamers to kick to this kid. It's very possible they don't kick to him at all.
Another point to note is that Jets kicker Nugent has made 18 straight FG's. Gostkowski, well, no one really knows, but at least he'll have solid footing on the field turf.

3. Big Plays.
The only reason why the Jets were in the first game was the two big pass plays. The weather eliminated any chance of big plays in game 2, but the weather man is promising a sunny, 50 degree day for round 3. Since Pennington doesn't have the arm to go deep, the big play will be avoided if the Pats secondary just makes tackles on the Jets short passing game.
The Pats may need to show the ability to go deep for big plays early in this game, as Jets Safety Kerry Rhodes dominated the two early meetings with 20 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

I sincerely hope that I don't need to mention turnovers here.

I know that I'm just a humble blogger, but looking at the earlier games there is a pretty logical game plan for both sides for Sunday's game.

For the Jets on O it is simply to try to mix enough runs in to not have to pass on every third down. They will do their typical short passing game and be very efficient on third down. There is little chance of the Jets running successfully, but watch for them to ustilize the speed and quickness of Leon Washington with screens and draws. He can do the same thing that Jones-Drew did last week if the Pats are not careful.

For the Pats D to stop the Jets, they need to use the 4-3 just as they did in game 1. Stuff the run and generate a pass rush with the front four. There are 2 rookie O-lineman starting for the Jets as well as a relatively inexperienced journeyman. All four D-lineman are healthy and the fifth, Mike Wright, has played very well of late. This is where the game will be won. The key will be to try to make 3rd down difficult for the Jets by leaving them in 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 10 or longer as much as possible. It is also imperative that the Pats limit the yards after catch by Coles and co.

For the Jets D to be successful, they've got to do what they and others have done to stop the Pats in the Pats losses this season. Eight men in the box to stop the run and leave it up to the Pats WR's to make the big play.

For Josh McDaniels to keep his job, the Pats O should come out with the spread Offense. At least 4 wide and one RB or empty backfield. (I don not mean all WR's, it can be 2 WR a TE and Faulk for all I care, just spread'em wide.) The Jets can't put 8 men in the box and cover 4 or 5 receivers. The Jets can't blitz and cover 4 or 5 receivers. That tkaes them right out of their game plan. Andre Dyson, starting CB for the Jets is OUT for Sunday. That means the Jets depth chart at corner is: one starter (David Barrett), then rookie kick returner Miller and Hank Poteat. You've got to like the idea of having Brown against Miller or Gaffney vs Poteat. Spread'em, make the fast Jets LB's cover the field from sideline to sideline to wear'em down. Brady said he's got a good handle on what the Jets did in game 2. Not only does the spread offense limit the blitzing, it also allows #12 to do what he does best. The Pats can line up Dillon and company in the second half to kill the clock once they've established a good lead.


Because I think the Jets Wideouts are a bad match-up for the Pats DB's, I think the Jets will score a little, but I don't think the Pats will have any trouble scoring agianst the Jets. I'm with the odds makers on this one:
PATS 27 - JETS 13

A Look Back

(Part 1 of 2 focusing on the Jets v. New England)

Yesterday I re-watched both Pats/Jets regular season meetings and it was a tale of 2 totally different games. Game one in NY was balmy and on field turf and game two was on slop at NE. That is hardly where the games differed though. Here is a look at the major factors affecting the outcomes of the two regular season games.

GAME 1

The Pats played the majority of D snaps in a 4-3 alignment.
From the 4-3 the Pats were able to neutralize the Jets running game as well as pressure Pennington with just the front 4.

The Jets brought little pressure.
The Jets D hardly blitzed in game 1. When they did it was on the left side, Brady's blindside, and it wasn't very effective.

The Pats got the ball downfield.
The Pats were able to throw over the top of the Jets secondary with ease because they established a very effective running game early. Chad Jackson was a big factor, getting behind the D three seperate times, one sure TD was dropped if you recall.

The Jets were anemic on Offense.
If not for the 2 big pass plays, this game was a blowout. The Cothcery fluke play where he got nailed but his knee never touched and he ran for a TD sparked the crowd and the Jets. The other was a great play by Coles made possible by poor tackling. The Pats tackled poorly all day, lead by one Eugene Wilson, who missed twice on the Coles TD. He is a perfect example of addition by subtraction.


GAME 2

The Pats played the game in the 3-4 alignment.
The Pats were forced to play the 3-4 because this is the game that Ty Warren missed. Seymour played on Warrens side and Green played where Seymour usually does. In the slop, the 3-4 was ineffective in stopping the run and generating a pass rush. Not to mention that our best defender this year has been Ty Warren.

The Jets blitzed a ton.
The Jets blitzed 28 times in game 2. Rather than blitz Brady's blindside, they blitzed to his right, where they found a weakness. After the game the Jets were bragging about confusing Tom Brady and that is just not true. The truth is, RG Stephen Neal was out and RT OCallaghan missed his first game. The right side of the line consisted of Billy Yates and Nick Kaczur in his first start at RT. Where would YOU bring pressure? On top of that, the blitzes were outmanning the Pats on the right. (If 3 blockers, 4 rushers, if 2 blockers 3 rushers, etc.) It's a miracle Brady was only sacked 4 times.

The Pats never got the ball downfield.
They simply didn't have time. The Jets kept 8 men in the box, limited the run and pressured on passing downs. The evidence: Game 1, 14.7 yds/catch Game 2, 10.2 yds/catch. Brady was 25 of 37, so he found open guys, justnot downfield.

The Jets were still an anemic offense.
They only managed 168 yds passing and 117 on the ground as opposed to the Pats who went for 255 in the air and 143 on the ground. The Jets managed 2 impressive drives, one of 16 plays and 81 yds and 15 plays and 62 for their TDs. That's pretty much it for their offense. They had four possessions of 3 and out.

Both games ended close on the scoreboard and perhaps the Pats should have won the 2nd game, but I'm having a hard time figuring out how the experts are coming up with the Pats as NINE POINT FAVORITES in this weeks game.

Look for part 2 today, examining the upcoming playoff match-up.

Monday, January 01, 2007

WOOHOO!!!

Evidently Vince Young is not that good. I think he will be in a couple of years though and let's face it, if anyone has a worse receiving corps than the Pats, it's Tennessee.

This was quite a game with so much happening. Thankfully, Ed Hoculee and his team were the officials. It took the best crew the league has to keep this game from getting out of control. Kudos to them for calling every stupid little thing to start the second half - even if it meant a free TD for the Titans. Much better to giveup some points than to get anyone else hurt or even suspended for losing their temper. Belichick commented after the game that the officials did a good job and that he wished Hoculee and his team could do every Pats game. Also, no one does a better job explaining his rulings on replay challenges than Hoculee.

Then there was the milestones. Corey Dillon passed OJ for 14th on the all time rushing list. The Pats D gave up fewer points than any other Pats D in the teams history, previously held by the superbowl team of 2003. Vinny Interceptaverde threw his TD to make him the only person to throw a TD in 20 seasons. I think that Jeff Fisher is OK with that and doesn't feel like Belichick was running up the score. Personally, if I was Titan, it would have pissed me off.

The good:
Brady to Caldwell deep! - TWICE!!
The O-line - good job in protection, great run blocking.
The O - Tennessee is a very good D and the Pats put up 40.
Chad Jackson - if he returns punts so well, why haven't they used him all year?

The bad:
Punt Coverage - Pac man is good, but not THAT good.
Gostkowski - missing an XP and a FG is not the way to gain confidence heading to the Playoffs.
Bruschi - I don't know what it is, but he just doesn't seem to be Bruschi anymore.

The ugly:
The chop block on Rodney Harrison - looks like he'll be OK though.
The field at LP Stadium - easily worse than Gillette used to be.

The ripped:
Ed Hoculee is in better shape than some of the players.

WOO HOO!!!
The playoffs may have just fallen perfectly for the Pats. I couldn't be happier to see Denver eliminated, thanks San Fran! Even better is that the Chefs....er, Chiefs will be playing Indy. I can't think of a worse match-up for Indy. Even IF Indy manages a win, the Chiefs will have pounded the hell out of 'em. And then there was the Jets. J.E.T.S. - Just End Their Season.
It is a terrific scenario for KC to beat Indy, Pats to beat the Jets, then KC goes to SD and we get to go to Baltimore.
I think the Pats would much rather go to Baltimore than SD because Belichick has shut down McNair in the past, it's an EAST coast short trip, their O is less of a threat and KC has a ligit shot at beating SD (they're in the same division and KC beat SD once already this year) setting up a possible AFC championship at NE!!!!

Definitely watch for more posts about this week's matchup between the Jets and Pats. NOT including any of the bullshit between Belichick and Manjerky.


HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
I hope that 2007 is your best year ever.
Now go take care of that hangover....

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

As Homer Simpson Once Said...

Awe....the Denver Broncos!

As it currently stands, the Pats will host the Denver Broncos in the wild card round of the playoffs. More about that to come, but first, let's talk about the big win on Sunday.

I felt like the team did a great job in 2 phases of the game and as they say, two out of three ain't bad. First, the offense did a pretty good job. Obviously the gameplan was to spread out the Jags big defense and utilize the short passing game. Of Brady's 39 pass attempts, only TWO were for more than 15 yds. He once again proved what a winner he is. Brady was NOT at his best Sunday, he missed a number of throws, but he got the job done and won the game even though it meant running a little bit. (Speaking of, I'm shocked that Clint Ingram didn't get a spearing penalty for his hit on Brady. Yes, Brady dove instead of sliding. Yes the guy was coming full speed. YES he left his feet AND lead with the crown of his helmet right into Brady's spine. I sincerely hope the league takes a look at the hit and sends the kid a fine. All he had to do was touch Brady and he would have been OK if he just fell on top of him. The league needs to send this rookie a lesson for his OWN safety. If he continues to tackle with his head, he will paralyze himself at some point.) The offensive line did a great job protecting Brady considering he dropped back 43 times and got sacked only once. Moreover, Brady had a nice pocket and good throwing lanes. David Thomas showed why he was Vince Young's favorite target at Texas and makes the potential loss of Graham to free agency a little easier to take. I'll suck it up on this one and not that I was entirely happy with the game plan, but Joshy had a pretty good game too.

Second, the defense did a great job except for two plays. Hey, it happens. Obviously the first bad play was the fluke run by Jones-Drew. (I knew I should have started him on my fantasy team!) What shocked me the most was that, even seeing him rolling on the ground, not one official blew a whistle! There is NO WAY that all officials noticed that no Patriot touched him, so why wasn't there a whistle? I don't blame Tully at all on that play, nor the rest of the D. Take away that fluke play and Drew ran for 57 yds on 18 carries, that's pretty good D. The other horrid play was the Matt Jones TD. Where was the defense? I didn't get to see who missed the tackle, and I was told it was Asante, but NO safety help? NO deep zone coverage? One DB on the entire side of the field? Somebody screwed up badly on that one, it's hard to believe that up by ten points at that point in the game they'd play strictly man coverage.
ALSO, Rodney looks better now than he did at the beginning of the season, it was GREAT to have him back. Kudos to the D for stepping up and ending the game when it had to.

Special teams was the weak link. I don't blame Gostkowski for missing a 50 yarder, that happens to everyone. I think he'll be fine heading into the playoffs. While kick coverage was decent, kick returns were bad -especially the Maroney return. I was most disappointed in Todd "Ken Walter" Sauerbrun. Field position will make a BIG difference in the playoffs, so let's hope he was just rusty.

Now there seems to be the debate over what the Pats should do next week. As I wrote last week, I believe Belichick should rest everyone and use this week as a bye. Get Cassel some snaps, get Testeverde some work - don't get Brady speared. Rest everyone that is remotely hurt. They cannot get the #3 seed unless Indy loses again. Even then, they won't know until all the games are over who the opponent will be, unlike last year, when they knew they'd get the Jags if they lost to Miami. If you are interested in who is still in the playoff hunt and how they get in, visit ESPN at http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2668613

As it stands now, SD and Baltimore have the bye week, Indy is 3rd, Pats 4, Denver 5 and Jets 6th.
That means Jets at Indy and Denver at NE.
I'm not so sure I want to face Denver. I think the match-ups work better for the Pats the other way. Denver has a running game far superior to the Jets and would have a better chance of beating Indy. The Pats against Jets would be WW3 and there is no way in hell Belichick let's Manjerky beat him at home AGAIN.

Getting back to current reality, the Jets have been hot and Indy not so hot and it is quite concievable that the Jets win that game and go to SD. Meaning a Pats win brings them to Baltimore. Jet and Pats victories in those games would mean the Pats hosting the Jets for the AFC Championship. It doesn't get any better than that!

Hopefully I'll be able to post 2-3 times a week for the rest of the season, so check back early and often and tell your friends to do the same!

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Another Big But

It was great to see the Pats perform well in all three phases of Sunday's game BUT it is hard to get too excited about it because it was the Texans afterall. David Carr stunk, Andre Johnson didn't come to play and they kept feeding the Pats the ball on turnovers. When was the last time the Pats won a game in the first quarter? See what happens when you actually use the screen play? That game is over and, like the Pats are doing, we should look forward.

First, good riddance to Ken Walter who was place on IR. It looks like they've signed a rookie punter to the practice squad to compete for the job with the current practice squad punter. How's that for best job around sports? Practice squad punter. The minimum salary for a practice squad guy is $79,900. Not bad. No running, no tackling, just show up and make a few kicks for 5 months, where do I sign up? I mean, I can almost kick it as far as Walter could.

A glance at the playoff picture shows a bleak outlook.

If the playoffs started this week, the Pats would host Denver and Cincy would go to Baltimore with SD and Indy as the 1 and 2 seeds. IF all the seedings hold true, the Pats would have to beat Denver at home, win AT san diego then win AT indy. Good luck with that road to the superbowl. Sounds more like road to one and done to me. On a more positive note, a Doc that I work with that is a huge cowboys fan was saying that the Pats will go to the superbowl. I told him he's nuts, but here are his reasons:
-Brady and Belichick are winners and give the Pats a chance in any game.
-They consistantly stop the run and have a good D in general
-They have a 'shutdown' corner in Samuel (I refuted that one)
-They have the ability to run the ball.

I suppose one could argue for or against any of those reasons. I'm still a bit pessimistic about their chances this year.

The Pro Bowl balloting is a big farce. No one that has watched any football can possibly say that Seymour money is having a better year than Ty Warren. I'm sure the Pats thought they should have had more than one representative in Honalulu. They feel like they've been disrespected and that has only worked to their advantage in the past. Let's hope it can carry them into February.

As for NEXT season...(is that looking too far ahead?)...it's not pretty.

Their divisional rotation puts them up against the AFC North and the NFC East.
So every team in their division plays the entire AFC Northe and NFC East.

Their standings matchups are against the AFC West and the AFC South. So if the Pats finish first, which they will, they'll play #1 from each of those divisions, INDY and SD.

Not to mention home and away vs Miami Buffalo Jets.

Here's what it's projected to be: (remember you heard it here first)

HOME: Cleveland, Pitt, Philly, Wash, SD, Jets, Miami, Bills

AWAY: Baltimore, Cincy, Dallas, Giants, Indy, Jets, Miami, Bills

I see about 5 games that they'll definitely win and quite possibly an 8-8 season.

On the other hand, the Pats will be 30 million under the cap and have 2 first-round picks, so they SHOULD be able to improve their team dramatically. Here are some suggestions to Mr Pioli and Mr Belichick from your humble blogger.

-re-sign Graham and Izzo
-let Asante go for his 10 mill.

Go after and SIGN:
-CB Nate Clements from Buffalo,
-LB Lance Briggs from Chicago or LB/DE Adelius Thomas from Baltimore
-WR Wes Welker to return kicks and take over as the slot receiver
-S Ken Hamlin from Seattle.
Now you are a younger, faster defense with 4 Playmakers added to the team.

Use the two first round picks on:
-WR Johnnie Lee Higgins, UTEP
In 11 games this season he only had 82 catches and 1300+ yds and 13 TDs. Did I mention he runs a 4.3 in the 40, has terrific hands and plays with his heart on his sleeve?

-Marcus McCauley, Freson St. 6'1 205; 4.35 in the 40.
A "system" fit from Fresno, can play zone or man and is great in run support.

I'd be pretty excited about THAT teams chances against the '07 schedule. But what do I know?

Let's hope that the Pats take care of business in Jacksonville and clinch the division THIS week. Doing so would allow Belichick to rest anyone that's banged up in the last game against the Titans, essentially creating their own bye week. Then hosting what will most likely be the JETS in the first round of the playoffs. I don't want our playoff chances to rest on having to beat Vince Young and the Titans @Tennessee, as the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QB's. Believe me, the Pats have no one on D that can run with Young. Let's wory about that bridge when/if we get there.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Where Do We Go From Here?

Thanks for cathcing the Radiohead referrence.

Where DO the Pats go from here? I mean, releasing Doug Gabriel is not the answer. I really hope he talks because I'd love to know what the hell happened there. Is it too early to start looking at next season? I don't think this team can win the superbowl, do you? That being said, there isn't a team out there that you'd say the Pats couldn't possibly beat. While San Diego is probably the best team right now, the Pats have done well against the run this season and Bellichick has a knack for confusing young QB's. So where do we go from here? Let's start with the Miami game.

The two biggest reasons I saw that cost the Pats the game were (surprise surprise) Josh McDaniels and Murphy's Law.
Do I really need to keep telling you what's wrong with Joshy? The Dolphins D did exactly what the world expected them to, press coverage on the corners and rush the passer. The running game seemed to me that it was working. That is until, once again, it was completely abandoned by Joshy. Hey, have you guys ever heard of this Jason Taylor guy? Evidently Joshy has no idea who he is. Come on Joshy, the guy is pounding Brady into the turf on every pass play and you keep trying to block him one on one? As I've said many times before, stop the pass rush with screens and draws. This weeks total? 1 screen, 0 draws. I will give him credit for the horribly executed double pass for a TD.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong, Murphy's Law. Three punts downed inside the 10, rediculous phantom calls agains the Pats, a fluke TD pass that went through Hawkins hands and on and on.
Of honorable mention for costing the Pats the game is Ken Walter. You CAN NOT tell me that there is no one out there that can kick more than 30 yards.

Looking the rest of the way the Pats have 3 games they should win, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lose two more games. Here's how to look at it now. Thanks to a Jets loss, they've pretty much locked up the division and the #4 seed. It's nearly impossible for them to move up or down from there. Therefore, how this team comes together and executes the rest of the was is more impotant than actaul wins. So what if Vince Young pulls out another miracle come back and beats the Pats, did they do some good things? The last three games are more of a dress rehearsal to work on fixing the holes as best they can before the playoffs begin.

The Playoff Picture
1) SD 2) Indy 3) Balt 4) NE 5) Cincy 6) Jax (Jets, KC and Denver are one game out)

You're right Krager, I dont want to go to this week's game either. And I wouldn't except that I have been fortunate enough to have an invitation to watch the game from a luxury box. I'll be sure to tell all next week!

As soon as I figure out how to set it up, I'll have the "sign up to receive notification of Posts" thingy posted. Can you tell I'm not tech savy?

Friday, December 08, 2006

Playoff Picture and MORE!

With four games to go in the regular season, this weekends games will have a huge impact on the playoff race and seedings. There are more key match-ups this week than in the last three, so by Monday we'll have a good idea of where the Pats will end up. If the season were to end today, the Pats would host the Bengals on wild card weekend. The other game would be The Jets at Ravens. Indy is still the #1 and SD is 2nd seed. Here are the key games this weekend:

Indy @ Jax. Two straight losses for Indy is highly unlikely and it probably won't make much of a difference to the Pats anyway unless Indy ends up with 4 losses (they have 2 now) . ndy has the head to head as well as conference record tie breakers over the Pats, but who wouldn't want to see Peyton lose again?

Baltimore @ KC Go Herm Edwards. A win for KC would be HUGE for the Pats. Baltimore would have 3 losses and be tied with NE for the 3rd playoff seed. They don't play head to head, and they would both be 6-3 in the conference. I think the next tie breaker is record vs common opponents. I haven't looked THAT far - yet.

Denver @ SD A must win for Denver, tough SD is now vying for the #1 seed with Indy. The Bolts have 2 more 'losable' games after this one and it will take 2 losses for the Pats to be leapfrog them for the #2 seed. This is the biggest game for the Pats this week besides their own.


Speaking of ther own game at Miami, I really like their chances of winning in this game for two reasons. First, a lot of the local media are picking Miami in this game and that ALWAYS motivates the Pats. They just have that knack for winning games that you just don't think they'll win and this game is a prime example. Second, they really sucked last week and it is very rare that this team goes aout and lays an egg two weeks in a row. We'll see how they gameplan for this one knowing that Maroney will likely play sparingly if at all.

The Pats have had success on the road this season and it's because they've gotten out to early leads. With the possibility of Maroney being out, it might be a wise choice for the Pats to come out with the 2 minute offense to start the game. You know, the one that scored on 3 of 4 posessions last week? That would have scored on 4 of 4 if not for the Watson fumble? Spread'em out and pass, run some draws to Faulk to keep the D honest and get an early lead. Miami probably has to rely on the passing game anyway because Ronnie Brown will be out with a broken hand. Harrington will turn it over in this game, especially if they fall behind early and have to pass 80% of the time.

Did you hear me Joshy? 2 minute offense to start the game! Get the lead and then worry about running.

Pats 31 'Fins 10

Loose ends:

I realize that I have not stuck to my plan of a Wednesday posting and have been erratic with the posting schedule. IF I used one of those "notify you when I post" things would that be helpful to you guys or would you not even bother to sign up for it?

Note to Krager, you got your wish. For some reason I forgot that the Browns were playing the Steelers on Thursday night, how could THAT have happened? So I missed the deadline for our pick'em league. You're not welcome.

Monday, December 04, 2006

That's Just Not Going to Cut it.

Garbage. That's what the Patriots played like yesterday. You do NOT 'just show up' and expect to win in the NFL, even against a team as bad as Detroit. Actually, I think Ohio State would probably beat the Lions. They might even be more deserving of the chance than FLorida, but I digress.

One has to wonder what Belichick will do to the team this week. Evidently he had them in full pads and hitting all last week as well as (according to Brady) giving them their toughtest mental day of the year so far on Wednesday. So what does Bill have up his sleeve for this week? Swimming with sharks? Competing in a triathlon? Listening to more Bon Jovi? Whatever it is I have NO sympathy for this team, I hope he beats the piss out of 'em, they deserve it. On with my questions...

Who's the best player in the NFL?
Once again, Tom Brady showed why he is the best player in the NFL. 14-15 passing in the 4th quarter for 15 points. It should have been three scores, but Watson fumbled again while the Pats were about to take another one in. (I heard a radio guy call Watson the new Faulk because everytime he touches it you say JUST HOLD ON TO IT. Good point.)

What was with the gameplan anyway?
Did it seem like the whole game was predicated on Maroney? Because once he went out the Offense had that, "now what do we do" look to it. It took my best friend Joshy until the fourth quarter and trailing by 8 points to adjust to the loss of Maroney. By the way, it only took FOX until the fourth quarter to mention that Maroney wasn't in the game.

Did you crap yourself (too) when Vrabel went down?

How nice was it to FINALLY see Gabriel have a catch?

Who is the most over-rated player on the Pats?
Asante Samuel. They raved about his INT before they pointed out that it was just a great defensive call and that any DB could make that play. But they said NOTHING about the poor coverage he had in the end zone on Detriot's only TD.

Does anyone really miss Deion Branch?
It is obvious that Caldwell has established himself as a guy that Brady has a ton of confidence in. Seattle paid $7 mill per for Deion's 38 catches and 4 TD's, not to mention the #1 pick. Caldwell has 46 and 3TD's and will make $585,000 this season. A team could buy 6 Caldwells for the price of a Branch. Let's see where the seahawks are in 2 seasons.

If you are curious to see what all the Pats make I would refer you to Miguels page: http://www.patscap.com/

Back with more on the playoff Picture on Wednesday.....