Mid-week Notes

This week's game is huge for the Pats, not necessarily in terms of where they stand with the Colts, but where they stand in the AFC. At 7-0 and a pussycat schedule, the Colts will get the #1 seed in the AFC even if the Pats win the rest of their games. We should all be keeping our eyes on that all imprtant #2 seed - and the bye week that comes with it. If the Pats are to have any chance of threepeating, they're gonna need a first round bye and home field in round 2. In that scenario, they'd have to win a game at home (v. Pitt or Denver or SD or KC or Cincy) then go to Indy to play for the right to beat the NFC representative in the SB. If they get seed 3 or 4 (they can't do worse than 3or4 by winning the division) then they'd host a wild card game in round 1, go on the road in round 2, then go to Indy, just to get to the SB. I think that is way too much to ask of this years team. It is still tough with the bye, but certainly more reasonable. Consider that 86% of SB winners since this playoff format was developed have been a #1 or #2 seed with a first round bye.

Here's how the AFC currenty shakes out:
Colts 7-0
Cincy 6-2
Denver 6-2 (beat us head to head, so they win a tie breaker)
Pittsburgh 5-2
PATS 4-3
KC 4-3
Jax 4-3
SD 4-4
It's definitely an uphill climb to the #2 spot.


Some stats:

Brady has thrown for 2020 yds to Manning's 1551.
James has nearly doubled the rushing output of Dillon 801-401

The Pats are 26th in overall Defense, Indy is 4th
The Pats are 5th in overall Offense, Indy is 9th.

The Pats have scored 159 pts and given up 180. YIKES!
The Colts have scored 189 pts and given up 77.

While Dwight Freeney gets the headlines, he is second on the Colts with 6 sacks. Robert Mathis, the OTHER starting DE leads the league with 8 sacks.

So what makes you feel good about this game if you are a Pats fan? Hard to tell with this years team. I believe that they have two major factors in their favor. First, they've always been a team that relishes the underdog role. They love the 'nobody thought we could do it' line. This game HAS to be their statement game. Everyone has anointed the Colts as the SB champs, and it's time for the Pats to step up and show everyone that they're still the team to beat in the AFC. If this team has any pride at all, this will be their best game of the season, win or lose. Second, the team that actually came the closest to beating the Colts was Romeo Crennel's Browns. They held Indy to 13 points - AT Indy. Belichick is on record as using that game as the basis for his gameplanning this week. Have you ever been golfing and you have a putt that you're just not sure if it'll go left or right, but the guy you're playing with is just inside your ball so he putts first? You watch what line he takes, you watch what his ball does and learn how the putt is going to break. Romeo just missed his putt, Belichick is now lining up his putt.

Some smaller favorable factors to consider:
Is Belichick in Manning's head?
Pats are 6-0 v Colts since 2001.
Pats are home. (hope the crowd doesn't sit on their hands again)
An over-rated Colts D hasn't faced a top 15 offense all year.

On the injury front, Seymour money, Dillon, Pass, Sanders and Warren all sat out practice on Tuesday. Gay and Troy Brown returned to practice.

Tedy Bruschi won NFL Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Belichick when asked how to stop Freeney: "Put a ball and chain on him, that would slow him down."

More to come on Friday, though I'm not sure I want to make any more predictions about this team. I've lost some of my confidence in them after last week, but this week could do a lot to renew my spirit.