Wednesday, December 28, 2005

To Three or not to Three

It was a dominating performance by the Pats on the final ABC Monday Night game ever. Who cares? The games are going to be on ESPN instead, what's the big deal anyway? The Pats dominated from start to finish with the exception of one poor Brady TD pass to Ty Law. When you hold an NFL team to no 1st downs in an entire half and run 31 straight Offensive snaps, I don't care who you're playing against, that is total domination. As a result of the game, two major questions are now on everyone's mind. What is Bruschi's status for the playoffs and are the Pats better off as the 3 seed or 4?

While slightly more info will be available later today when the official injury report comes out, it appears that Brushi has torn his calf muscle. My guess is the Pats injury report will list Brushi as "Questionable - Leg". Needless to say, the huge strides that this D has made are a direct reflection of Bruschi being on the field. Not just his playing ability, but his ability to read the O and call the appropriate D. Without him in the middle the Pats might be looking at one and done.

So are the Patriots better off as the #3 or #4 seed? What do YOU think?

Some will argue that you should always try to win and get the highest seed possible because there is a greater chance of getting a second home game and finish on a roll with another win.

I'll tell you why the Pats are much better off as the #4 seed. As the #4 the first round opponent will be Jax. Florida team, January and 7 degrees with snow flurries in Foxboro. Jax may have to play the backup QB Garrard. Or Jax starts Leftwich, who hasn't started a game in 5 weeks. Yes their D is very good, but the Pats O has demonstrated over the past two games that it can score any way that it has to against a particular D. (v. TB they spread it out, 4-5 wideouts, empty backfields, single back sets and scored 28 pts. v. Jets they ran the ball 50 times in 3 TE sets and Ashworth as a fullback to score 31 pts.)
As the #3 they will likely face the second hottest team in the NFL right now, Pitt. I'll take Jax, thank you.
Once the Pats finish off the Jags, it'll be on to Indy (assuming the higher seeds win). What better time to face Indy than as their first real game in what will be 5 weeks? (L to SD, L to Seattle, not starters playing this week, then a bye week) and add in the emotion invovled with the Dungy thing, I'd say you'd want to be the first team to face Indy in the playoffs because that's when they'll be most vulnerable.
If you have to go to Denver after that so be it, but at that point we could at least say the Pats are the reason why Peyton P*ssy is once again sitting at home for the Super Bowl.
Right now, AT Denver looks a lot more difficult than AT Indy, so to 3 or not to 3? I say let the starters play one quarter then put the subs in or at least Matt Cassell and lose the game. Play for the 4th seed Bill!

For those that don't know the possibilities:
If the Pats win and Cincy loses to KC, the Pats are the #3 seed.
If Pats lose, they are #4 no matter what Cincy does.
If Pats win and Cincy beats KC, Pats are #4.

KC NEEDS to win and Pitt to lose in order to make the playoffs, so they'll be playing desperate football.

However, if YOU are Cincy, don't you rest your players and lose, hope that Pats win and so you can grab the 4th seed to play Jax, rather than division rival Pitt?

It's the most wonderful time of the year!!!!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

About MNF being on ESPN... Its a "big deal" only to those of us that do not get ESPN. ABC, being network television, is broadcast over the air for folks who still use an antenna (such as my father-in-law) and is included in the Basic Cable package for those of us who do not pay the ridiculous $50 a month to get maybe 5 more channels that we would actually watch. Starting next season, I will now have to either miss the Monday night games or leave my house to watch them. As it is, the Pats games and Friday night Sox games are the only New England sports I can watch in my home. Now, the Pats are starting to slip away. It sucks.

As for the seed question... I say beat the snot out of Miami and let the chips fall where they may. Never play to lose. However, I believe that Belichick will approach this one like a pre-season game, as mrbandw previously said. He will play to win, but he won't put his best weapons out there to generate more film for his playoff opponents to watch. Besides, there's only one scenario out of four that the Pats will get the #4 seed, and they only control 1 dimension of that.

Russ said...

Barry, it's not our fault you want to be Amish. Suck it up. :-)

Yes - 4 seed is preferrable to me as well.

Anonymous said...

Barry -
"Never play to lose. However, I believe that Belichick will approach this one like a pre-season game, as mrbandw previously said. He will play to win, but he won't put his best weapons out there to generate more film for his playoff opponents to watch."

Belichick never plays to lose. But he will play for other reasons. I only got a chance to listen to part of the game, but what I heard was awesome. Our second and third string was able to hold Miami and almost come back to win! You have to say that this is one of the, if not THE best TEAM in the NFL. Belichick got everybody warmed up and ready for the playoffs, not just the starters. Even though they lost the game, the postgame reports all said that this was a team win for the Pats. I totally agree. How can you not have confidence in the Pats when everybody is looking so good. This team is psyched and so am I.

I'm also excited about having Matt Cassell. He did more in that one game than Rohan Davey did in his entire back-up career in New England.

There is also one more benefit to playing the Jax. Everybody made good points about the players, and I totally agree, but look at the scheduling too. Jax needs to travel to NE for Saturday. This gives them less practice time. Also, we get an extra day for rest/travel/practice for Indy due to the Saturday game and traveling to Indy for Sunday.

FYI, I've got my buddies in Indy trying to acquire tix as we speak!

Anonymous said...

First, let me say that family obligations kept me from seeing just about all of the game. But the one play I DID see, as I was passing through the room, was the Flutie drop-kick. Is Belichick a genius or what? Even if they never actually pull that play again, just putting Flutie in Red Zone on 4th down now means that the opponent has to think about whether the Pats will Run, Pass, OR Kick! Even when Belichick is playing an almost meaningless game, he's already setting up his offense for the next one. Freakin' brilliant!