I hope they beat the crap out of Indy.
Key play of the game:
3rd and 10, 4 minutes to go in the half. Brady throws for a first down inside the 25 yd line and the Colts are deflated. BUT WAIT, Troy Brown, easily within 5 yds of the line of scrimmage bumps a defender. 10 yd penalty, 3rd and 20. Now tell me, the way the game was going, another TD to make it 28 - 3 or at worst 24 - 3 at the half doesn't make a HUGE difference. Anyway, the NFL got what it's wanted all along, Peyton in the superbowl. And just think, not only will we all be so happy to see him play, we'll get to see him in the commercials too!!
I put the game squarely on the defense. 32 points in the second half won't cut it against anyone, they just sucked.
I hope the rumor is true about Joshy getting an offer to be the head coach of the Raiders. PLEASE Joshy, GO AWAY. Pats first offensive play of the second half is a miscomunication and Brady throws it away. He had literally a freakin hour to call a play and didn't. And how aboout the bright coaching move, when we were up by 3 with 330 to go in the game and they can't even get players in the damn huddle. That five yards may have cost them the game.
I'm too pissed, maybe I'll be able to write more about it tomorrow, I don't know.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Greetings from the golf course.
Since I will be in Orlando on a business trip, I won't be able to post until at least Thursday. Feel free to post your comments on the game.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Best Shot
Well here it is anxious blog-readers, my best shot at trying to figure this game out. I've read everything I can get my hands on and it's amazing how conflicted the 'experts' are about this game. Most of the SI guys pick the Pats. Most of the ESPN guys pick the Bolts. Some tell you the Pats won't be able to run at all and others tell you they will. Some tell you Rivers will be shaken and others say no. Everyone seems to agree that Belichick will have a few wrinkles in the gameplan and everyone would rather have Brady than Rivers. No kidding on those last two.
The 3 keys for this week's game are in no particular order. I think that all 3 keys are a necessity for the Pats to win and I don't think 2 out of 3 will cut it this week.
First
The Chargers blitz on 50% of their defensive snaps. Brady has compared it to playing the Steelers. They also had practice against the Jets, who blitzed almost 50% last week. I think we can all agree that Brady is superb at picking it up and making the proper adjustments. I think the key then, is not as much Brady recognizing the blitz, but being able to communicate it to all against the crowd noise and have everyone be on the same page. It will also have to be done within the limits of the play clock and while 5 yds doesn't kill you, it revs the crown up even further.
Second
The Pats will need some kind of big play early to shake the Bolts confidence and quiet the crowd. A kick return for a TD, a quick score on O, or a Bolts turnover early would go along way to accomplish those goals. While I don't think Rivers will melt under the pressure, I have to think that he'll be a little tight early and that's when the Pats will have their opportunity.
Third
The Pats D. They will have to attack the Bolts playmakers, similar to the first SB win vs. the Rams. Hit LT on every play. Knock him on his ass when he doesn't get the ball and pile on when he does. That includes Gates, who absolutely, positively MUST get hit at the line of scrimmage. It is also imperative for the front 7 to stay in their run lanes to prevent LT's cutbacks. The minute someone overpursues, LT has gone through his lane and gotten good yardage. That's why the Pats got torched by LT last year. Beisel and Brown (our starting MLB's that day) never stayed disciplined in their lanes. I like Bruschi and Vrabel to do a much better job of it.
Those are the keys, but what will the game plan be?
On offense the best thing they can do is keep the Bolts D on the field and off balance. I don't care whic formation they use, but they need to defy tendencies. For example run out of the spread offense and pass out of the 2 TE, 2 RB sets. (Run when they think pass and pass when they think run.) They'll probably play a lot of 2 TE sets to help protect Brady, so they've got to be able to pass out of that 'running' formation. Because the Bolts blitz so much, the Pats should be able to screen them to death. You should see screens to Graham, Watson, Faulk, Maroney and Dillon. Screen to both sides, make the D run from sideline to sideline all day. A no huddle approach will probably aslo be in use, though not necessarily hurry-up, just to limit substitutions while their D is running all over the field covering screens and short passes. I do believe the Pats will be able to run, most teams have. The problem has been that the Bolts get a big lead and teams have to abandon the run. Teams have passed against SD twice as much as they've run.
I think on Defense, you'll see the Pats play a very basic 3-4 D with few, if any, blitzes. It is more important for the D to stay in those run lanes than it is to blitz and get caught out of position and give up a big play. I think that's been the plan all year and they'll stick to it: Make the opponent use 10-12 plays to score instead of 3 or 4. They are more likely to screw themselves up on a 12 play drive than a 4 play drive. Again, it will be important to smack LT everydown and not allow Gates to run off the line of scrimmage cleanly. The Base 3-4 keeps the D in position to do just that.
Some other things I think I think about the game...
...The Bolts are listening to everyone tell them how great they are and may start the game overconfident.
...The game will come down to whoever gets the ball last.
...Pats fans will be impressed by Rivers.
...Marty won't have as much to do with the outcome as 'they' say.
The Pats win a close one, based on the performance of Tom Brady, PATS 31 Bolts 27.
Because I'm such a guru (sarcasm intended) I'll give you my picks for the entire weekend:
Ravens over the Colts - not just because I can't stand Manning. The Ravens D is too good and the Colts are lousy on te road.
Saints over Eagles. I think the home crowd will overwhelm the Eagles and Sean Payton will have an excellent gameplan.
Seahawks over Bears. I am throughly unimpressed with the Bears and I like the Seahawks D against Grossman more than I like the Bears D against Hasselback, Aexander and company. Besides, if destiny is for anyone in these playoffs, wouldn't you say it's with Seattle?
The 3 keys for this week's game are in no particular order. I think that all 3 keys are a necessity for the Pats to win and I don't think 2 out of 3 will cut it this week.
First
The Chargers blitz on 50% of their defensive snaps. Brady has compared it to playing the Steelers. They also had practice against the Jets, who blitzed almost 50% last week. I think we can all agree that Brady is superb at picking it up and making the proper adjustments. I think the key then, is not as much Brady recognizing the blitz, but being able to communicate it to all against the crowd noise and have everyone be on the same page. It will also have to be done within the limits of the play clock and while 5 yds doesn't kill you, it revs the crown up even further.
Second
The Pats will need some kind of big play early to shake the Bolts confidence and quiet the crowd. A kick return for a TD, a quick score on O, or a Bolts turnover early would go along way to accomplish those goals. While I don't think Rivers will melt under the pressure, I have to think that he'll be a little tight early and that's when the Pats will have their opportunity.
Third
The Pats D. They will have to attack the Bolts playmakers, similar to the first SB win vs. the Rams. Hit LT on every play. Knock him on his ass when he doesn't get the ball and pile on when he does. That includes Gates, who absolutely, positively MUST get hit at the line of scrimmage. It is also imperative for the front 7 to stay in their run lanes to prevent LT's cutbacks. The minute someone overpursues, LT has gone through his lane and gotten good yardage. That's why the Pats got torched by LT last year. Beisel and Brown (our starting MLB's that day) never stayed disciplined in their lanes. I like Bruschi and Vrabel to do a much better job of it.
Those are the keys, but what will the game plan be?
On offense the best thing they can do is keep the Bolts D on the field and off balance. I don't care whic formation they use, but they need to defy tendencies. For example run out of the spread offense and pass out of the 2 TE, 2 RB sets. (Run when they think pass and pass when they think run.) They'll probably play a lot of 2 TE sets to help protect Brady, so they've got to be able to pass out of that 'running' formation. Because the Bolts blitz so much, the Pats should be able to screen them to death. You should see screens to Graham, Watson, Faulk, Maroney and Dillon. Screen to both sides, make the D run from sideline to sideline all day. A no huddle approach will probably aslo be in use, though not necessarily hurry-up, just to limit substitutions while their D is running all over the field covering screens and short passes. I do believe the Pats will be able to run, most teams have. The problem has been that the Bolts get a big lead and teams have to abandon the run. Teams have passed against SD twice as much as they've run.
I think on Defense, you'll see the Pats play a very basic 3-4 D with few, if any, blitzes. It is more important for the D to stay in those run lanes than it is to blitz and get caught out of position and give up a big play. I think that's been the plan all year and they'll stick to it: Make the opponent use 10-12 plays to score instead of 3 or 4. They are more likely to screw themselves up on a 12 play drive than a 4 play drive. Again, it will be important to smack LT everydown and not allow Gates to run off the line of scrimmage cleanly. The Base 3-4 keeps the D in position to do just that.
Some other things I think I think about the game...
...The Bolts are listening to everyone tell them how great they are and may start the game overconfident.
...The game will come down to whoever gets the ball last.
...Pats fans will be impressed by Rivers.
...Marty won't have as much to do with the outcome as 'they' say.
The Pats win a close one, based on the performance of Tom Brady, PATS 31 Bolts 27.
Because I'm such a guru (sarcasm intended) I'll give you my picks for the entire weekend:
Ravens over the Colts - not just because I can't stand Manning. The Ravens D is too good and the Colts are lousy on te road.
Saints over Eagles. I think the home crowd will overwhelm the Eagles and Sean Payton will have an excellent gameplan.
Seahawks over Bears. I am throughly unimpressed with the Bears and I like the Seahawks D against Grossman more than I like the Bears D against Hasselback, Aexander and company. Besides, if destiny is for anyone in these playoffs, wouldn't you say it's with Seattle?
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
No Sir, I Don't Like It.
I'm going to take some extra time to analyze this week's game, because quite frankly I'm having a very hard time coming up with 2 or 3 keys for the Pats to win the game. Yeah, I know, contain Tomlinson and make Rivers beat you. What else, the generic "don't turn the ball over"? I'd like to think I can give a little bit more insight than that. However, scour as I might, I've yet to find much info to pass on that's worth anything.
I couldn't help but worry about The Pats as a strong, smart Ohio State team had it's ass handed to it by a faster, more atheletic Florida team. Any of those adjectives apply to this weeks game? Strong, smart Pats; Fast, atheletic Chargers? I look at it in a positive light, if the Pats get beat because San Diego is so much quicker at every position, then Belichick and Pioli will set to work getting faster - especially on Defense. No Pats LB can run with Gates, nevermind Tomlinson. Are you confident that Hawkins could tackle Gates or LT after watching Cothery zoom right past him last week?
Not to sound all doom and gloom, the Pats do have some things working for them. It's just a matter of how much do these advantages really mean when it's time to take the field. In no particular order because I've yet to figure it all out, here are some advantages for the Pats:
Rivers inexperience and play down the stretch. Was the 18-53 with 2TD's and 2picks combined in weeks 15 and 16 the Rivers we can expect to see on Sunday? Or will we see the QB that has led massive come from behind 4th quarter victories?
Shottenheimer (however you spell it) Marty. His miserable playoff record speaks for itself. 5 wins, 12 losses. He's 1-3 in the 4 games in which he was the #1 seed. However, his notoriously conservative playoff approach may be lessened because he's letting the offensive coordinator call the plays this year.
The underdog role. Not many are giving the Pats a chance in this one. The Pats always thrive when nobody says they can do it.
Belichick. Obviously and advantage. He is 4-0 in the playoffs against the #1 seed.
Brady. No doubt the most clutch QB of our time. You've got to wonder if he still feels ill will towards Marty after the little war of words the last time the Bolts beat the injured Pats, not that he needs extra motivation.
A chemistry set. (not really) If they could devise a test for HGH (human growth hormone) maybe they could test Merriman this week and have him suspended for the game. There is currently no test that detects HGH. Then again, if there was, half the NFL or more would be suspended.
So it is back to the drawing board for me and a longer wait for those of you so anxiously awaiting my astute analysis.
On a side note, I think it's BS that you cannot buy a ticket for the game unless your billing address is in southern California. The Chargers are only selling to SoCal residents. If you want to go to the game, you'r gonna have to pay a scalping agency. Not that I was going to go, just that I think it's BS. "We want to maximize our home field advantage", was the Statement released by the Bolts.
I couldn't help but worry about The Pats as a strong, smart Ohio State team had it's ass handed to it by a faster, more atheletic Florida team. Any of those adjectives apply to this weeks game? Strong, smart Pats; Fast, atheletic Chargers? I look at it in a positive light, if the Pats get beat because San Diego is so much quicker at every position, then Belichick and Pioli will set to work getting faster - especially on Defense. No Pats LB can run with Gates, nevermind Tomlinson. Are you confident that Hawkins could tackle Gates or LT after watching Cothery zoom right past him last week?
Not to sound all doom and gloom, the Pats do have some things working for them. It's just a matter of how much do these advantages really mean when it's time to take the field. In no particular order because I've yet to figure it all out, here are some advantages for the Pats:
Rivers inexperience and play down the stretch. Was the 18-53 with 2TD's and 2picks combined in weeks 15 and 16 the Rivers we can expect to see on Sunday? Or will we see the QB that has led massive come from behind 4th quarter victories?
Shottenheimer (however you spell it) Marty. His miserable playoff record speaks for itself. 5 wins, 12 losses. He's 1-3 in the 4 games in which he was the #1 seed. However, his notoriously conservative playoff approach may be lessened because he's letting the offensive coordinator call the plays this year.
The underdog role. Not many are giving the Pats a chance in this one. The Pats always thrive when nobody says they can do it.
Belichick. Obviously and advantage. He is 4-0 in the playoffs against the #1 seed.
Brady. No doubt the most clutch QB of our time. You've got to wonder if he still feels ill will towards Marty after the little war of words the last time the Bolts beat the injured Pats, not that he needs extra motivation.
A chemistry set. (not really) If they could devise a test for HGH (human growth hormone) maybe they could test Merriman this week and have him suspended for the game. There is currently no test that detects HGH. Then again, if there was, half the NFL or more would be suspended.
So it is back to the drawing board for me and a longer wait for those of you so anxiously awaiting my astute analysis.
On a side note, I think it's BS that you cannot buy a ticket for the game unless your billing address is in southern California. The Chargers are only selling to SoCal residents. If you want to go to the game, you'r gonna have to pay a scalping agency. Not that I was going to go, just that I think it's BS. "We want to maximize our home field advantage", was the Statement released by the Bolts.
Monday, January 08, 2007
Jetting on to San Diego
It was a great game yesterday, though it was very close for longer than I would have liked. In today's post, I'll review the best and worst of the playoff victory over the Jets and see how I did with my three keys to the game.
The Best
Balance on Offense. The Pats ran the ball 38 times and threw it 34 times. In a great little spurt, the Pats ran to the line and ran the same running play (mostly with Faulk) four times in a row for about 8 yds a pop. Joshy mostly did a pretty good job. He had a balanced attack, went deep a few times and exploited an injured CB relentlessly.
Picking up the blitz. Unlike the previous meeting where the Pats sent out 4 and 5 pass catchers, they expected a blitz on every down and had many more routes with 2 and 3 receiving options and 6,7 and 8 blockers. It was a fitting end to the game when the Jets blitzed and Brady burned them with a TD pass to Faulk.
Jabar Gaffney. 8 catches for 100 yds. Yes he dropped a TD pass and he ran backwards to be brought down short of the first down on a third and eight play, but who would have ever expected him to have more than 2 or 3 catches, nevermind be the leading receiver on the team.
Stephen Gostkowski. 3-3 FG's and 4-4 extra points. It was great to see the Rookie get some playoff experience and do it successfully.
Vince Wilfork. A stout force against the run all day, got some pressures on Pennington and made the game changing play picking up the Pennington lateral.
I'm not going to talk about #22 anymore, not after his attempt to be selfish and unPatriotlike in a Globe article the day of the start of the playoffs.
The Worst
One bad play on Defense. The Cotchery TD catch and run where he was untouched. Antonio Gates makes his living running that very play - better learn to stop it quickly.
Richard Seymour. A few noticeable missed tackles, he was not even a factor in the game until his garbage time sack. Good thing we gave him the money.
Not much else, the Pats maybe should have done better than they did in the red zone, they settle for far too many FG's. The red zone was the worst part of Joshy's day by far.
Now how did the Pats do with my 3 keys to the game?
1 - 3rd down conversions. The Pats kicked ass. They were 11-16 and held the Jets to a meager 3-11.
2 - Special teams. The Pats held Miller to an average at best day including stopping him cold on the 10 yd line. Sauerbrun was solid and Gostkowski excelled.
3 - Big Plays. Other than the one Cotchery play, the Pats eliminated the big play.
Look for many more posts this week as we look forward to San Diego!
The Best
Balance on Offense. The Pats ran the ball 38 times and threw it 34 times. In a great little spurt, the Pats ran to the line and ran the same running play (mostly with Faulk) four times in a row for about 8 yds a pop. Joshy mostly did a pretty good job. He had a balanced attack, went deep a few times and exploited an injured CB relentlessly.
Picking up the blitz. Unlike the previous meeting where the Pats sent out 4 and 5 pass catchers, they expected a blitz on every down and had many more routes with 2 and 3 receiving options and 6,7 and 8 blockers. It was a fitting end to the game when the Jets blitzed and Brady burned them with a TD pass to Faulk.
Jabar Gaffney. 8 catches for 100 yds. Yes he dropped a TD pass and he ran backwards to be brought down short of the first down on a third and eight play, but who would have ever expected him to have more than 2 or 3 catches, nevermind be the leading receiver on the team.
Stephen Gostkowski. 3-3 FG's and 4-4 extra points. It was great to see the Rookie get some playoff experience and do it successfully.
Vince Wilfork. A stout force against the run all day, got some pressures on Pennington and made the game changing play picking up the Pennington lateral.
I'm not going to talk about #22 anymore, not after his attempt to be selfish and unPatriotlike in a Globe article the day of the start of the playoffs.
The Worst
One bad play on Defense. The Cotchery TD catch and run where he was untouched. Antonio Gates makes his living running that very play - better learn to stop it quickly.
Richard Seymour. A few noticeable missed tackles, he was not even a factor in the game until his garbage time sack. Good thing we gave him the money.
Not much else, the Pats maybe should have done better than they did in the red zone, they settle for far too many FG's. The red zone was the worst part of Joshy's day by far.
Now how did the Pats do with my 3 keys to the game?
1 - 3rd down conversions. The Pats kicked ass. They were 11-16 and held the Jets to a meager 3-11.
2 - Special teams. The Pats held Miller to an average at best day including stopping him cold on the 10 yd line. Sauerbrun was solid and Gostkowski excelled.
3 - Big Plays. Other than the one Cotchery play, the Pats eliminated the big play.
Look for many more posts this week as we look forward to San Diego!
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
A Look Forward
(Part 2 focusing on the Pats V. the Jets.)
So now you know what has happened in this series so far this season. Knowing what we know about the earlier matchups and the outcomes, I thought it would be easy to determine what will happen on Sunday. Then I looked at the spread and I had to look again, opening line on Monday was Pats by nine and today it still stands at nine. Hmmm. The previous two meetings were decided by a total of 10 points, but the Pats are favored by nine. What do the oddsmakers know? It is a line that will make even the most die hard Pats fan consider taking the Jets with the points. Because most of the betting will be on the Jets getting nine, the odds makers must think the Pats will win by ten or more. If there are any bettor's out there, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to use common sense here.
So let's say Pats by ten, 20-10. How could that happen?
Three keys to a Pats victory over the Jets on Sunday (and I don't mean by ten).
1. 3rd down.
The Jets O finished 4th overall in 3rd down conversions. They convert an astounding 43.8% of the time on 3rd down. The Pats D on the other hand has a 35.9 % success rate against it, good for 8th in the league. Conversely, the Pats O is right behind the Jets at 42.9%, 5th in the league, while the Jets D is at 36.5%, 10th in the league. Something's got to give. Don't get too upset or too excited if you see 2nd and 12 or 3rd and 8, hold your breath and watch what will happen on third down.
2. Special teams.
Obviously the Pats coverage teams stunk out the joint last Sunday against Pacman Jones. The Jets only pro-bowler is Justin Miller, their kick returner. The Pats need to do a great job covering this kid and it will be interesting to see if Belichick shows enough faith in his special teamers to kick to this kid. It's very possible they don't kick to him at all.
Another point to note is that Jets kicker Nugent has made 18 straight FG's. Gostkowski, well, no one really knows, but at least he'll have solid footing on the field turf.
3. Big Plays.
The only reason why the Jets were in the first game was the two big pass plays. The weather eliminated any chance of big plays in game 2, but the weather man is promising a sunny, 50 degree day for round 3. Since Pennington doesn't have the arm to go deep, the big play will be avoided if the Pats secondary just makes tackles on the Jets short passing game.
The Pats may need to show the ability to go deep for big plays early in this game, as Jets Safety Kerry Rhodes dominated the two early meetings with 20 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
I sincerely hope that I don't need to mention turnovers here.
I know that I'm just a humble blogger, but looking at the earlier games there is a pretty logical game plan for both sides for Sunday's game.
For the Jets on O it is simply to try to mix enough runs in to not have to pass on every third down. They will do their typical short passing game and be very efficient on third down. There is little chance of the Jets running successfully, but watch for them to ustilize the speed and quickness of Leon Washington with screens and draws. He can do the same thing that Jones-Drew did last week if the Pats are not careful.
For the Pats D to stop the Jets, they need to use the 4-3 just as they did in game 1. Stuff the run and generate a pass rush with the front four. There are 2 rookie O-lineman starting for the Jets as well as a relatively inexperienced journeyman. All four D-lineman are healthy and the fifth, Mike Wright, has played very well of late. This is where the game will be won. The key will be to try to make 3rd down difficult for the Jets by leaving them in 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 10 or longer as much as possible. It is also imperative that the Pats limit the yards after catch by Coles and co.
For the Jets D to be successful, they've got to do what they and others have done to stop the Pats in the Pats losses this season. Eight men in the box to stop the run and leave it up to the Pats WR's to make the big play.
For Josh McDaniels to keep his job, the Pats O should come out with the spread Offense. At least 4 wide and one RB or empty backfield. (I don not mean all WR's, it can be 2 WR a TE and Faulk for all I care, just spread'em wide.) The Jets can't put 8 men in the box and cover 4 or 5 receivers. The Jets can't blitz and cover 4 or 5 receivers. That tkaes them right out of their game plan. Andre Dyson, starting CB for the Jets is OUT for Sunday. That means the Jets depth chart at corner is: one starter (David Barrett), then rookie kick returner Miller and Hank Poteat. You've got to like the idea of having Brown against Miller or Gaffney vs Poteat. Spread'em, make the fast Jets LB's cover the field from sideline to sideline to wear'em down. Brady said he's got a good handle on what the Jets did in game 2. Not only does the spread offense limit the blitzing, it also allows #12 to do what he does best. The Pats can line up Dillon and company in the second half to kill the clock once they've established a good lead.
Because I think the Jets Wideouts are a bad match-up for the Pats DB's, I think the Jets will score a little, but I don't think the Pats will have any trouble scoring agianst the Jets. I'm with the odds makers on this one:
PATS 27 - JETS 13
So now you know what has happened in this series so far this season. Knowing what we know about the earlier matchups and the outcomes, I thought it would be easy to determine what will happen on Sunday. Then I looked at the spread and I had to look again, opening line on Monday was Pats by nine and today it still stands at nine. Hmmm. The previous two meetings were decided by a total of 10 points, but the Pats are favored by nine. What do the oddsmakers know? It is a line that will make even the most die hard Pats fan consider taking the Jets with the points. Because most of the betting will be on the Jets getting nine, the odds makers must think the Pats will win by ten or more. If there are any bettor's out there, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to use common sense here.
So let's say Pats by ten, 20-10. How could that happen?
Three keys to a Pats victory over the Jets on Sunday (and I don't mean by ten).
1. 3rd down.
The Jets O finished 4th overall in 3rd down conversions. They convert an astounding 43.8% of the time on 3rd down. The Pats D on the other hand has a 35.9 % success rate against it, good for 8th in the league. Conversely, the Pats O is right behind the Jets at 42.9%, 5th in the league, while the Jets D is at 36.5%, 10th in the league. Something's got to give. Don't get too upset or too excited if you see 2nd and 12 or 3rd and 8, hold your breath and watch what will happen on third down.
2. Special teams.
Obviously the Pats coverage teams stunk out the joint last Sunday against Pacman Jones. The Jets only pro-bowler is Justin Miller, their kick returner. The Pats need to do a great job covering this kid and it will be interesting to see if Belichick shows enough faith in his special teamers to kick to this kid. It's very possible they don't kick to him at all.
Another point to note is that Jets kicker Nugent has made 18 straight FG's. Gostkowski, well, no one really knows, but at least he'll have solid footing on the field turf.
3. Big Plays.
The only reason why the Jets were in the first game was the two big pass plays. The weather eliminated any chance of big plays in game 2, but the weather man is promising a sunny, 50 degree day for round 3. Since Pennington doesn't have the arm to go deep, the big play will be avoided if the Pats secondary just makes tackles on the Jets short passing game.
The Pats may need to show the ability to go deep for big plays early in this game, as Jets Safety Kerry Rhodes dominated the two early meetings with 20 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
I sincerely hope that I don't need to mention turnovers here.
I know that I'm just a humble blogger, but looking at the earlier games there is a pretty logical game plan for both sides for Sunday's game.
For the Jets on O it is simply to try to mix enough runs in to not have to pass on every third down. They will do their typical short passing game and be very efficient on third down. There is little chance of the Jets running successfully, but watch for them to ustilize the speed and quickness of Leon Washington with screens and draws. He can do the same thing that Jones-Drew did last week if the Pats are not careful.
For the Pats D to stop the Jets, they need to use the 4-3 just as they did in game 1. Stuff the run and generate a pass rush with the front four. There are 2 rookie O-lineman starting for the Jets as well as a relatively inexperienced journeyman. All four D-lineman are healthy and the fifth, Mike Wright, has played very well of late. This is where the game will be won. The key will be to try to make 3rd down difficult for the Jets by leaving them in 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 10 or longer as much as possible. It is also imperative that the Pats limit the yards after catch by Coles and co.
For the Jets D to be successful, they've got to do what they and others have done to stop the Pats in the Pats losses this season. Eight men in the box to stop the run and leave it up to the Pats WR's to make the big play.
For Josh McDaniels to keep his job, the Pats O should come out with the spread Offense. At least 4 wide and one RB or empty backfield. (I don not mean all WR's, it can be 2 WR a TE and Faulk for all I care, just spread'em wide.) The Jets can't put 8 men in the box and cover 4 or 5 receivers. The Jets can't blitz and cover 4 or 5 receivers. That tkaes them right out of their game plan. Andre Dyson, starting CB for the Jets is OUT for Sunday. That means the Jets depth chart at corner is: one starter (David Barrett), then rookie kick returner Miller and Hank Poteat. You've got to like the idea of having Brown against Miller or Gaffney vs Poteat. Spread'em, make the fast Jets LB's cover the field from sideline to sideline to wear'em down. Brady said he's got a good handle on what the Jets did in game 2. Not only does the spread offense limit the blitzing, it also allows #12 to do what he does best. The Pats can line up Dillon and company in the second half to kill the clock once they've established a good lead.
Because I think the Jets Wideouts are a bad match-up for the Pats DB's, I think the Jets will score a little, but I don't think the Pats will have any trouble scoring agianst the Jets. I'm with the odds makers on this one:
PATS 27 - JETS 13
A Look Back
(Part 1 of 2 focusing on the Jets v. New England)
Yesterday I re-watched both Pats/Jets regular season meetings and it was a tale of 2 totally different games. Game one in NY was balmy and on field turf and game two was on slop at NE. That is hardly where the games differed though. Here is a look at the major factors affecting the outcomes of the two regular season games.
GAME 1
The Pats played the majority of D snaps in a 4-3 alignment.
From the 4-3 the Pats were able to neutralize the Jets running game as well as pressure Pennington with just the front 4.
The Jets brought little pressure.
The Jets D hardly blitzed in game 1. When they did it was on the left side, Brady's blindside, and it wasn't very effective.
The Pats got the ball downfield.
The Pats were able to throw over the top of the Jets secondary with ease because they established a very effective running game early. Chad Jackson was a big factor, getting behind the D three seperate times, one sure TD was dropped if you recall.
The Jets were anemic on Offense.
If not for the 2 big pass plays, this game was a blowout. The Cothcery fluke play where he got nailed but his knee never touched and he ran for a TD sparked the crowd and the Jets. The other was a great play by Coles made possible by poor tackling. The Pats tackled poorly all day, lead by one Eugene Wilson, who missed twice on the Coles TD. He is a perfect example of addition by subtraction.
GAME 2
The Pats played the game in the 3-4 alignment.
The Pats were forced to play the 3-4 because this is the game that Ty Warren missed. Seymour played on Warrens side and Green played where Seymour usually does. In the slop, the 3-4 was ineffective in stopping the run and generating a pass rush. Not to mention that our best defender this year has been Ty Warren.
The Jets blitzed a ton.
The Jets blitzed 28 times in game 2. Rather than blitz Brady's blindside, they blitzed to his right, where they found a weakness. After the game the Jets were bragging about confusing Tom Brady and that is just not true. The truth is, RG Stephen Neal was out and RT OCallaghan missed his first game. The right side of the line consisted of Billy Yates and Nick Kaczur in his first start at RT. Where would YOU bring pressure? On top of that, the blitzes were outmanning the Pats on the right. (If 3 blockers, 4 rushers, if 2 blockers 3 rushers, etc.) It's a miracle Brady was only sacked 4 times.
The Pats never got the ball downfield.
They simply didn't have time. The Jets kept 8 men in the box, limited the run and pressured on passing downs. The evidence: Game 1, 14.7 yds/catch Game 2, 10.2 yds/catch. Brady was 25 of 37, so he found open guys, justnot downfield.
The Jets were still an anemic offense.
They only managed 168 yds passing and 117 on the ground as opposed to the Pats who went for 255 in the air and 143 on the ground. The Jets managed 2 impressive drives, one of 16 plays and 81 yds and 15 plays and 62 for their TDs. That's pretty much it for their offense. They had four possessions of 3 and out.
Both games ended close on the scoreboard and perhaps the Pats should have won the 2nd game, but I'm having a hard time figuring out how the experts are coming up with the Pats as NINE POINT FAVORITES in this weeks game.
Look for part 2 today, examining the upcoming playoff match-up.
Yesterday I re-watched both Pats/Jets regular season meetings and it was a tale of 2 totally different games. Game one in NY was balmy and on field turf and game two was on slop at NE. That is hardly where the games differed though. Here is a look at the major factors affecting the outcomes of the two regular season games.
GAME 1
The Pats played the majority of D snaps in a 4-3 alignment.
From the 4-3 the Pats were able to neutralize the Jets running game as well as pressure Pennington with just the front 4.
The Jets brought little pressure.
The Jets D hardly blitzed in game 1. When they did it was on the left side, Brady's blindside, and it wasn't very effective.
The Pats got the ball downfield.
The Pats were able to throw over the top of the Jets secondary with ease because they established a very effective running game early. Chad Jackson was a big factor, getting behind the D three seperate times, one sure TD was dropped if you recall.
The Jets were anemic on Offense.
If not for the 2 big pass plays, this game was a blowout. The Cothcery fluke play where he got nailed but his knee never touched and he ran for a TD sparked the crowd and the Jets. The other was a great play by Coles made possible by poor tackling. The Pats tackled poorly all day, lead by one Eugene Wilson, who missed twice on the Coles TD. He is a perfect example of addition by subtraction.
GAME 2
The Pats played the game in the 3-4 alignment.
The Pats were forced to play the 3-4 because this is the game that Ty Warren missed. Seymour played on Warrens side and Green played where Seymour usually does. In the slop, the 3-4 was ineffective in stopping the run and generating a pass rush. Not to mention that our best defender this year has been Ty Warren.
The Jets blitzed a ton.
The Jets blitzed 28 times in game 2. Rather than blitz Brady's blindside, they blitzed to his right, where they found a weakness. After the game the Jets were bragging about confusing Tom Brady and that is just not true. The truth is, RG Stephen Neal was out and RT OCallaghan missed his first game. The right side of the line consisted of Billy Yates and Nick Kaczur in his first start at RT. Where would YOU bring pressure? On top of that, the blitzes were outmanning the Pats on the right. (If 3 blockers, 4 rushers, if 2 blockers 3 rushers, etc.) It's a miracle Brady was only sacked 4 times.
The Pats never got the ball downfield.
They simply didn't have time. The Jets kept 8 men in the box, limited the run and pressured on passing downs. The evidence: Game 1, 14.7 yds/catch Game 2, 10.2 yds/catch. Brady was 25 of 37, so he found open guys, justnot downfield.
The Jets were still an anemic offense.
They only managed 168 yds passing and 117 on the ground as opposed to the Pats who went for 255 in the air and 143 on the ground. The Jets managed 2 impressive drives, one of 16 plays and 81 yds and 15 plays and 62 for their TDs. That's pretty much it for their offense. They had four possessions of 3 and out.
Both games ended close on the scoreboard and perhaps the Pats should have won the 2nd game, but I'm having a hard time figuring out how the experts are coming up with the Pats as NINE POINT FAVORITES in this weeks game.
Look for part 2 today, examining the upcoming playoff match-up.
Monday, January 01, 2007
WOOHOO!!!
Evidently Vince Young is not that good. I think he will be in a couple of years though and let's face it, if anyone has a worse receiving corps than the Pats, it's Tennessee.
This was quite a game with so much happening. Thankfully, Ed Hoculee and his team were the officials. It took the best crew the league has to keep this game from getting out of control. Kudos to them for calling every stupid little thing to start the second half - even if it meant a free TD for the Titans. Much better to giveup some points than to get anyone else hurt or even suspended for losing their temper. Belichick commented after the game that the officials did a good job and that he wished Hoculee and his team could do every Pats game. Also, no one does a better job explaining his rulings on replay challenges than Hoculee.
Then there was the milestones. Corey Dillon passed OJ for 14th on the all time rushing list. The Pats D gave up fewer points than any other Pats D in the teams history, previously held by the superbowl team of 2003. Vinny Interceptaverde threw his TD to make him the only person to throw a TD in 20 seasons. I think that Jeff Fisher is OK with that and doesn't feel like Belichick was running up the score. Personally, if I was Titan, it would have pissed me off.
The good:
Brady to Caldwell deep! - TWICE!!
The O-line - good job in protection, great run blocking.
The O - Tennessee is a very good D and the Pats put up 40.
Chad Jackson - if he returns punts so well, why haven't they used him all year?
The bad:
Punt Coverage - Pac man is good, but not THAT good.
Gostkowski - missing an XP and a FG is not the way to gain confidence heading to the Playoffs.
Bruschi - I don't know what it is, but he just doesn't seem to be Bruschi anymore.
The ugly:
The chop block on Rodney Harrison - looks like he'll be OK though.
The field at LP Stadium - easily worse than Gillette used to be.
The ripped:
Ed Hoculee is in better shape than some of the players.
WOO HOO!!!
The playoffs may have just fallen perfectly for the Pats. I couldn't be happier to see Denver eliminated, thanks San Fran! Even better is that the Chefs....er, Chiefs will be playing Indy. I can't think of a worse match-up for Indy. Even IF Indy manages a win, the Chiefs will have pounded the hell out of 'em. And then there was the Jets. J.E.T.S. - Just End Their Season.
It is a terrific scenario for KC to beat Indy, Pats to beat the Jets, then KC goes to SD and we get to go to Baltimore.
I think the Pats would much rather go to Baltimore than SD because Belichick has shut down McNair in the past, it's an EAST coast short trip, their O is less of a threat and KC has a ligit shot at beating SD (they're in the same division and KC beat SD once already this year) setting up a possible AFC championship at NE!!!!
Definitely watch for more posts about this week's matchup between the Jets and Pats. NOT including any of the bullshit between Belichick and Manjerky.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
I hope that 2007 is your best year ever.
Now go take care of that hangover....
This was quite a game with so much happening. Thankfully, Ed Hoculee and his team were the officials. It took the best crew the league has to keep this game from getting out of control. Kudos to them for calling every stupid little thing to start the second half - even if it meant a free TD for the Titans. Much better to giveup some points than to get anyone else hurt or even suspended for losing their temper. Belichick commented after the game that the officials did a good job and that he wished Hoculee and his team could do every Pats game. Also, no one does a better job explaining his rulings on replay challenges than Hoculee.
Then there was the milestones. Corey Dillon passed OJ for 14th on the all time rushing list. The Pats D gave up fewer points than any other Pats D in the teams history, previously held by the superbowl team of 2003. Vinny Interceptaverde threw his TD to make him the only person to throw a TD in 20 seasons. I think that Jeff Fisher is OK with that and doesn't feel like Belichick was running up the score. Personally, if I was Titan, it would have pissed me off.
The good:
Brady to Caldwell deep! - TWICE!!
The O-line - good job in protection, great run blocking.
The O - Tennessee is a very good D and the Pats put up 40.
Chad Jackson - if he returns punts so well, why haven't they used him all year?
The bad:
Punt Coverage - Pac man is good, but not THAT good.
Gostkowski - missing an XP and a FG is not the way to gain confidence heading to the Playoffs.
Bruschi - I don't know what it is, but he just doesn't seem to be Bruschi anymore.
The ugly:
The chop block on Rodney Harrison - looks like he'll be OK though.
The field at LP Stadium - easily worse than Gillette used to be.
The ripped:
Ed Hoculee is in better shape than some of the players.
WOO HOO!!!
The playoffs may have just fallen perfectly for the Pats. I couldn't be happier to see Denver eliminated, thanks San Fran! Even better is that the Chefs....er, Chiefs will be playing Indy. I can't think of a worse match-up for Indy. Even IF Indy manages a win, the Chiefs will have pounded the hell out of 'em. And then there was the Jets. J.E.T.S. - Just End Their Season.
It is a terrific scenario for KC to beat Indy, Pats to beat the Jets, then KC goes to SD and we get to go to Baltimore.
I think the Pats would much rather go to Baltimore than SD because Belichick has shut down McNair in the past, it's an EAST coast short trip, their O is less of a threat and KC has a ligit shot at beating SD (they're in the same division and KC beat SD once already this year) setting up a possible AFC championship at NE!!!!
Definitely watch for more posts about this week's matchup between the Jets and Pats. NOT including any of the bullshit between Belichick and Manjerky.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
I hope that 2007 is your best year ever.
Now go take care of that hangover....
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