Best Shot

Well here it is anxious blog-readers, my best shot at trying to figure this game out. I've read everything I can get my hands on and it's amazing how conflicted the 'experts' are about this game. Most of the SI guys pick the Pats. Most of the ESPN guys pick the Bolts. Some tell you the Pats won't be able to run at all and others tell you they will. Some tell you Rivers will be shaken and others say no. Everyone seems to agree that Belichick will have a few wrinkles in the gameplan and everyone would rather have Brady than Rivers. No kidding on those last two.

The 3 keys for this week's game are in no particular order. I think that all 3 keys are a necessity for the Pats to win and I don't think 2 out of 3 will cut it this week.

First
The Chargers blitz on 50% of their defensive snaps. Brady has compared it to playing the Steelers. They also had practice against the Jets, who blitzed almost 50% last week. I think we can all agree that Brady is superb at picking it up and making the proper adjustments. I think the key then, is not as much Brady recognizing the blitz, but being able to communicate it to all against the crowd noise and have everyone be on the same page. It will also have to be done within the limits of the play clock and while 5 yds doesn't kill you, it revs the crown up even further.

Second
The Pats will need some kind of big play early to shake the Bolts confidence and quiet the crowd. A kick return for a TD, a quick score on O, or a Bolts turnover early would go along way to accomplish those goals. While I don't think Rivers will melt under the pressure, I have to think that he'll be a little tight early and that's when the Pats will have their opportunity.

Third
The Pats D. They will have to attack the Bolts playmakers, similar to the first SB win vs. the Rams. Hit LT on every play. Knock him on his ass when he doesn't get the ball and pile on when he does. That includes Gates, who absolutely, positively MUST get hit at the line of scrimmage. It is also imperative for the front 7 to stay in their run lanes to prevent LT's cutbacks. The minute someone overpursues, LT has gone through his lane and gotten good yardage. That's why the Pats got torched by LT last year. Beisel and Brown (our starting MLB's that day) never stayed disciplined in their lanes. I like Bruschi and Vrabel to do a much better job of it.

Those are the keys, but what will the game plan be?

On offense the best thing they can do is keep the Bolts D on the field and off balance. I don't care whic formation they use, but they need to defy tendencies. For example run out of the spread offense and pass out of the 2 TE, 2 RB sets. (Run when they think pass and pass when they think run.) They'll probably play a lot of 2 TE sets to help protect Brady, so they've got to be able to pass out of that 'running' formation. Because the Bolts blitz so much, the Pats should be able to screen them to death. You should see screens to Graham, Watson, Faulk, Maroney and Dillon. Screen to both sides, make the D run from sideline to sideline all day. A no huddle approach will probably aslo be in use, though not necessarily hurry-up, just to limit substitutions while their D is running all over the field covering screens and short passes. I do believe the Pats will be able to run, most teams have. The problem has been that the Bolts get a big lead and teams have to abandon the run. Teams have passed against SD twice as much as they've run.

I think on Defense, you'll see the Pats play a very basic 3-4 D with few, if any, blitzes. It is more important for the D to stay in those run lanes than it is to blitz and get caught out of position and give up a big play. I think that's been the plan all year and they'll stick to it: Make the opponent use 10-12 plays to score instead of 3 or 4. They are more likely to screw themselves up on a 12 play drive than a 4 play drive. Again, it will be important to smack LT everydown and not allow Gates to run off the line of scrimmage cleanly. The Base 3-4 keeps the D in position to do just that.

Some other things I think I think about the game...

...The Bolts are listening to everyone tell them how great they are and may start the game overconfident.

...The game will come down to whoever gets the ball last.

...Pats fans will be impressed by Rivers.

...Marty won't have as much to do with the outcome as 'they' say.


The Pats win a close one, based on the performance of Tom Brady, PATS 31 Bolts 27.

Because I'm such a guru (sarcasm intended) I'll give you my picks for the entire weekend:

Ravens over the Colts - not just because I can't stand Manning. The Ravens D is too good and the Colts are lousy on te road.

Saints over Eagles. I think the home crowd will overwhelm the Eagles and Sean Payton will have an excellent gameplan.

Seahawks over Bears. I am throughly unimpressed with the Bears and I like the Seahawks D against Grossman more than I like the Bears D against Hasselback, Aexander and company. Besides, if destiny is for anyone in these playoffs, wouldn't you say it's with Seattle?