The Redskins are Coming

One of my two sleeper picks at the beginning of the season, the Washington Redskins, visit the Patriots this weekend. True to form, the Skins are 4-2 and are playing solid defense and "don't lose the game" offense. The Skins are the only team Tom Brady has not beaten, he's 0-1 against them. It'll be interesting to see if the little war of words between Gibbs and Brady has any effect on the game.

I believe this defense is the best one the Pats have faced thusfar this season and they'll be good preperation for next week's Indy game. They've got a very good linebacking corps and a pair of hard hitting, ball hawking safeties, not to mention 2 veteran cover corners. Rookie LaRon Landry is third on the team in tackles and his partner at safety, Shawn Taylor leads the league with 5 picks.

On Offense you'll see the skins play conservative, running to set up the pass with an occassional reverse to leading receiver Antoine Randle El. Jason Campbell, the starting QB, is in his first year as a starter out of Auburn and he's the son of a high school football coach. He knows the game, but he's not going to win games for this team. He's a "don't cost us the game" QB with 5TD's and 5 Int's. The Skins coaches have only allowed him to pass 168 times this season. To contrast that, Brady has COMPLETED 169 passes.

Here's how it breaks down:

The Pats are the #1 offense, 7th in rushing and 1st in passing.
The Skins are #25 on offense*, 16th in rushing and 25th in passing.

The Pats D is #4 overall, 9th in rushing and 4th in passing.
The Skins D is #5 overall, 5th in rushing and 8th in passing.


The biggest battle, however, should occur on third down.
Washingtons D #2 on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 32% of the time.
Conversely, the Pats O is 4th at converting on third down, at a rate of 48% .

Also, pay close attention to the special teams in this game. If Washington is going to hang around it's going to take a special teams score or two. Rock Cartwright is one of the leading kickoff returners in the game, averaging 30 yards per return and has returned one for a TD. Also th kicker, Suisham, is a perfect 13-13 FGs.

Here's how I see it:

The Pats will score on their opening drive like they always do. Washington's going to answer with a field goal. The Pats will have a couple of drives in a row stall, a result of a combination of good defense and the Pats looking ahead to Indy. Sometime in the second quarter the Pats score a couple of TDs and the Skins get one too. Watch for the Pats to lull everyone to sleep in the second half as they steadily pull away.

Patriots 31
Redskins 13


*NOTE If the Pats D gives up more than 13 or 14 points to THIS offense, they're going to get killed by Indy next week.