Friday, September 28, 2007
Notes, The Bengals game
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=garber_greg&id=3034890
Looks like the league felt like there was some intent to Wilfork's hit to Losman. Small fine, $12,500 and no suspension. That essentially slaps him on the wrist and tells him not to do it again. To Wilfork's credit, he not only apologized on the field, but also personally called the Bills this week to check on Losman. Wilfork's a class act, and hopefully he won't get labelled as a dirty player.
Stallworth addressed the media this week to assure them he's happy. I was curious about him as it was and now I have my doubts that he really is happy. Let's face it, his contract is cut-able after this season and he's got a total of 4 catches. If he doesn't start being more productive, there is no way the Pats keep him on the payroll for next year. According to Miguel's unofficial Pats Salary page, "For the Patriots to retain Stallworth for the 2008 season, they must pay him an option bonus of $6 million by Feb. 25, 2008. There is a subsequent roster bonus of $2 million due on March 1, a second roster bonus of $1.6 million based on playing time, a base salary of $1 million and a $400,000 workout bonus. That totals an exorbitant $11 million for 2008." I think maybe we shouldn't get used to seeing him around unless he wants to renegotiate to stay here.
Monday Night Football.
This one has been billed Moss vs. Johnson. WHY?
Anyway, the Pats will be at Cincy on Monday night. The Bengals should be a dangerous team because they are really up against it. At 1-2, they are in danger of falling a full three games behind Pittsburgh in their division this week. It's almost a must win for Cincy and a team with it's back up against the wall is a dangerous team.
That being said, Cincy also has some injuries to deal with. Their best O lineman, LT Willie Anderson has not practiced this week and neither has TJ Who'syourmamma. In addition, starting RB Rudy Johnson is OUT.
What I see is a weak Cincinnati offensive line that will be dominated by the Pats front 7. Cincy will have no threat of a run game so the Pats will/should be able to generate a steady pass rush without sending too many guys. In the secondary expect soft, deep zones with the intention of making Palmer be patient and throw underneath for 5, 8, 12 yards at a time. The key will be just that, don't give up the big play.
On offense, I think the Pats should be able to do whatever they want. Cincy is 27th against the run (176 ypg) and 27th against the pass (258 ypg). It's just a matter of how the Pats want to score this week. I would expect the Pats to stay balanced, 50% run, 50% pass until they get the big lead then you'll see them run the ball to burn the clock.
It's hard not to pick the Pats for 38 points, so:
Pats 38
Bengals 16.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Bills re-cap, Observations, Stats, Top Ten
Of course, it helped that Wilfork esentially knocked Losman out of the game on Buffalo's first series. It was the most controversial play of the game. Losman thought it was a deliberate cheap shot. Wilfork swears he would never intentionally do something like that. To me, the video evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of Losman's argument. Wilfork was on his way down and just before he hit the ground, he throws his elbow out toward Losman, striking his left knee. Hard to argue with the video evidence. I'm quite sure Wilfork will be fined and with Goodell's record so far it wouldn't surprise me if he was even suspended for a game or two.
Getting on to the good news or maybe great news, the Pats have just been better than anyone could have imagined so far this year. I don't EVER remember them having the #1 offense and defense in the league. In addition, they are outscoring opponents 114-35, the biggest margin in the NFL by FAR. Their avg points scored per game is higher than the total points they've given up! They've only punted 4 times. The offense averages 441 yds/game and the defense is only giving up 207 per game. Brady's QB rating of 141.8 is twenty points higher than anyone in the league. His ten TD passes also leads the NFL. One wonders about Cincinnati in the upcoming Monday nighter: if the Browns put 51 points on the board against them what will the Pats put up? (38 again?)
Tom's Top Ten Teams:
1- Pats
The plethora of evidence is documented above.
2- Colts
They haven't been pretty, but they're winning and very dangerous.
3- Steelers
Winning almost as decisively as te Pats, though they've played no one that can play run defense.
4- Packers
Brett's playing like he's 28 and the D is equally impressive.
5- Cowboys
I'm still not sold on Defense and I think Romo will eventually be exposed as a streaky QB.
6- Texans
Can't fault them too much for losing a close one to Indy without having Andre Johnson.
7- Tampa Bay
My surprise team at the beginning of the season has even surprised me, I thought they'd start 0-4!
8- Titans
I know, this is probably too high for them but I love Vince Young's leadership. He's a winner and the
team believes it can win because of him.
9- Broncos
Still a scary team and a threat to win the AFC.
10- Chargers
Sooner or later they'll put it together?
Friday, September 21, 2007
As If You Didn't Know
First, Offense.
Second, Defense.
The Bills Offense is 32nd in passing, 17th in rushing and 31st overall.
The Pats Offense is 4th in passing, 8th in rushing and 2nd overall.
The Bills Defense against the pass is 27th, the run 30th and 31st overall.
The Pats Defense against the pass is 5th, the run 1st and 1st overall.
Game over.
The Patriots Keys to Victory:
1- avoid a let down
2- block Schobel, he's the only playmaker on Buffalo's D.
3- don't let Buffalo hang around, they'll gain confidence as the game goes on if they're hanging around in the second half.
A victory on Sunday will give the Pats a near insurmountable lead of 3 games over the Bills and either the Jets or Dolphins who play each other this week. Three weeks in, 2 divisional opponents will be virtually illiminated from contention.
The easy pick here is:
Pats 41
Bills 7
JP Losman throws a bomb to Roscoe Parrish who beats Asante for the lone Bills TD and Matt Cassell (I hope) plays the entire 4th quarter.
Videogate:
It appears that videogate is finally over. The Pats gave the league it's cheating materials and the league burned them. Hopefully I won't have to write about it anymore. I did find a great article by SI's Peter King regarding videogate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/09/19/mob.mentality0924/index.html
Although my respect for King has diminished since I found out some "stuff" about him and the Colts, this is a good article with good sources.
Tell your friends you heard it here!
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
A New Segment
1a Pats
1b Colts
32 the rest in a tie.
Let's face it, at this point in the season there are only two true contenders, but I said I'd do a top ten so here goes.
TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS
1 - Patriots Looking like world champs, but I won't go so far as to say that they'll go undefeated
2 - Colts They'll stay here for as long as that young defense holds up
3 - Steelers Their opponents were not impressive, but they are a complete team that can win with O and with D.
4 - Chargers They are just aweful right now, but I wouldn't want to play them come January when they've adjusted to the new coaches.
5 - Texans I like their point differential better than the other undefeated teams in the league
6 - Broncos Bad wins against bad teams, but wins are wins.
7 - Packers For now Favre looks young. They are playing good Defense, giving up only 26 points this season, 2 fewer than the Pats.
8 - Cowboys Bad wins against bad teams but have given up 55 points
9 - Lions This might be the last week on the list for the Lions. Wins against Oakland shouldn't count.
10 - 49ers I would have put the Cardinals here because I think the Cards are better, but how can I when SF just beat them?
One quick note here. Don't get suckered into taking Green Bay this week. The Pack are at home getting 7 points from San Diego. Take the Chargers, the AFC is that much better than the NFC.
Dominating the Chargers.
Speaking of line backers, how FAST is Adalius Thomas!?!!?
Moss watch:
Randy had 8 catches for 105 yds and 2 TD's. That brings his total to 17 catches, 288 yds and 3 TDs. He is on pace to break LEAGUE RECORD's in catches with 136, yds with 2300 and TD's with 24. Of course that's getting a little caried away, but you get the point. Sooner or later someone's going to try to cover him and that's when he'll have a huge impact. Did you see the first TD on Sunday, the one to Watson all by himself? Watch the replay. Moss was the outside receiver on that side and he ran an "in" route along the goal line. The CB, LB and Safety all followed Moss accross the middle while Watson slipped into the right side of end zone for the TD. IMPACT.
Short Bus:
It would be nice if the special teams were better. Gostkowski missed again and was inconstent with his kickoffs. I also saw a few missed tackles on kickoff coverage. Then there was the Hobbs fumble. There seems to be a lot of room for improvement on special teams. Personallly I'd rather not see Hobbs return kicks, secondary depth is a concern as it is.
Speaking of secondary, anyone seen Asante Samuel?
The Pats seem poised to be undefeated going into Indy on November 4th. Circle your calendars, it should be two 8-0 teams and it could be for homefield throughout the playoffs. What do you think, Pats 100 Colts 77?
Saturday, September 15, 2007
And the Winner is....
The Motivation.
For the Charger's it's revenge. Mighty Mouth was furious when the Pats were dancing on the field after beating the Bolts in the playoffs last year. While he seems to have backed down from his postgame comments, don't think he won't lead the charge to dance on the Pats emblem should he win on Sunday.
For the Pats it has to be to prove to the sportsworld that they can win without cheating. But I think that motivation could go either way. Think about it. If you've been a Pats player for the last 4-5 years and suddenly people are saying that your superbowls aren't legit after the thousands of hours in the weight room and hundreds of hours on the practice field and the film room and all the times you played hurt and couldn't get out of bed on Monday morning. Now you're labeled a cheater and told your championships are tarnished because of your coaches actions. Who are you going to be mad at? I don't think it's too much of a stretch for these players to be pissed at Belichick and tune him out. Then the cheating would have backfired on Belichick. I don't think that will happen here, not with this team. I really think they'll feed off the mantra of trying to prove they can win without cheating. I'm just not convinced that will be enough this week.
The Concern.
The concern I have this week is speed. Speed kills. The Pats D is BIG, but it is not fast. The Bears had success against Tomlinson last week because of their team speed on D, they could catch him. I'm not sure the Pats can. LT has run for an average of 135 yds and 2 TDs in his previous 3 games against the Pats.
Speed is also a concern in pass protection. The Jets D looks like the Slowski's compared with the Chargers D. Their pass rushers will get to Brady a lot faster than the Jets D could and they'll be relentless. They live by rushing the passer.
The Pats will win if...
...Adalius Thomas can stop Antonio Gates. I think he is the logical choice to match up and cover Gates because of his size and speed.
...The Pats can set the edge and keep LT from getting outside. This task will fall mostly on Vrabel and Colvin. On run plays, they've got to get up field and set the edge, making LT have to cut his runs inside where the Warrens and Bruschis and Thomas's of the world can tackle him. If LT consistently gets outside it will be a LONG night for the Pats
...The wide receivers are on the same page as Brady. SD will blitz and Brady will make the right read and find the open guy, he always does. But the wideout has to make the right read too. If the WR goes left and he's supposed to go right, then they're looking at turnovers, or at the very least, incompletions and punts.
What I See
I see a motivated Pats team that's going to be fired up for it's home opener on national TV. I see the Pats O slowing up the Bolts D by using a lot of draws and screens and employing a power running game. Once they've slowed the pass rush, they'll execute on a couple of deep passes that will be the difference in the game.
The Pats D hasn't primarily concerened itself with shutting down LT in the past. I think they realize that he's going to get his yards. The key will be keeping him out of the end zone - running or passing. The focus will be to confuse Rivers and contain Gates.
I see the Chargers speed keeping them in this one for most of the game with the Pats pulling away in the 4th quarter.
Patriots 30
Chargers 20
Friday, September 14, 2007
The Punishment
There are a lot of looney's out there calling for the loss of the pick and a suspension. Some even called for the Pats First round pick to be given to the Jets! Give me a break. I agree that the fines don't make a dent in their perspective wallets, but the fines in conjunction with the pick are plenty of punishment. Don't be thinking that giving up their #1 is not enough just because they were wise enough to trade for the 49er's first round pick next year.
Then there is the conspiracy theory.
The theory exists that Belichick wanted to get caught. He wanted to make sure that his players didn't believe the hype about them. He wanted to insure that they'd continue to work hard even though many have anointed them superbowl champs. Why else would he be so blatently obvious about filming the Jets signals? Why else would he be so obvious against Manjuvenille, who must know that it's something Bill does/did in the past. Now the players have to prove they're for real by going out and winning a "clean" superbowl. It's not my theory, but take it for what it's worth.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Raiders East
That was the mantra of the Oakland/LA Raiders of the 70's and 80's. Lie, cheat and steal, but just win. Take steroids (Lyle Alzado et al) but just win. Pay off the officials (see Sugar Bear Hamilton's phantom roughing the passer call in the 1976 playoffs) but just win baby.
Don't ask whether or not the Patriot's image will be tarnished. It's gone beyond tarnished to rusted with holes in it. Let's just examine this year alone. Golden boy Brady always speaks of his strong family values, but has a baby out of wedlock. Harrison, the leader of the team on and off the field, a born again Christian, uses banned substances to "get back on the field". And now blatent cheating during a game with the use of video cameras.
For those of you that have been on another planet, I'll explain. One of the Pats video assistants was on the Jets sideline video taping the Jets defensive coaches signaling plays to the huddle. It is absolutely illegal to video anything on the field at any portion of the game. Manjuvenille, probably accutely aware that Belichick does this, tipped off NFL security in the first quarter and they seized the camera and film. It is this film that commissioner Goodell viewed to determine that the Patriots are guilty.
Touchdown.org supplied visual evidence today with this picture:

How blatently obvious is THAT?!?!?! How STUPID?!?!?
I think it's indefensible, but Belichick's statement included a line about how he presented his, "interpretation of the rule" to the commissioner. As far as I know Johnny Cochrane is dead and the glove fits, Bill.
Innocent or guilty, this videogate has been hard to swallow as a fan. The problem with being a fan is that "fan" is short for fanatic. It's hard not to be fanatical about your team, hard not to be emotional about them. How many times when your team has won a game have you said, "WE won the game." Right or wrong, you attach yourself to them, you identify yourself with them. That's why it makes us feel ashamed when the Pats get caught trying to "just win baby". The only experience I have had in my life that made me feel like this is when the Priests were getting busted with little boys. (I'M NOT IMPLYING THAT IT IS AS BAD OR DEMEANING THE VICTIMS HERE!) However there are a lot of similarities for me.
I'm catholic.
I was an alter boy.
I grew up around the church.
I identify myself with my church.
I had absolute respect for all the priests I knew, they could do no wrong.
I'm a New Englander.
I played peewee football.
I grew up playing sports.
I identify myself with my favorite team.
I had absolute repsect for all the players and coaches, they could do no wrong.
In both cases I don't know that I can ever look at them the same way. In the back of my mind I'll always have doubts about them. They ARE tainted.
I got offended today because a Dolphin fan kept calling out to me, "CHEATERS......CHEATERS......CHEATERS...." I felt ashamed. Then I thought, WHY? I didn't cheat. I didn't take HGH. As far as I know I didn't have a child out of wedlock. What does it have to do with me? Nothing. This incident gives us a chance to seperate ourselves from our sports heros and that's probably a good thing.
So now, knowing that what they do is NOT a reflection on you, you must ask yourself if you can still morally accept this team and support them no matter what. As for me, I was hurt, but this is just a football team, not my life.
So I say, "Just Win Baby!"
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Off to a Good Start
First let's look at what went right:
The Randy Moss I told you about in training camp has officially arrived in the regular season. I was shocked to find out that his 183 yds is the most in one game in his career.
The O-line was FANTASTIC protecting Brady. If he gets that kind of time all year the Pats will go undefeated.
The D was stout against the run and did a pretty good job on the Pass rush.
Besides his drop, Welker showed his value.
Sammy Morris looked good running the ball and on special teams.
Dumb play by Hobbs to carry the kickoff out from 8 yds deep but it all worked out for him.
Was there any bad to speak of in this game?
Chad Pennington had his way with the Pats secondary, going 16 of 21 for 167 and 2 TD's. Thats 10 yds/completion and a whopping 76% completions. The Pats better improve that before the likes of Palmer and Manning come calling.
Some of the guys I watched the game with commented on something we saw last year that was evident again today. It weemed like the O-line didn't block well for Maroney, but when Morris got carries there were gaping holes. The same seemed true to us last season with Dillon getting holes. Regardless, Maroney was thoroughly unimpressive and I hope it ws a matter of the Jets gameplainning to stop him. He was not explosive, decisive nor impactful. I wonder if he's still a little hurt. Not much else was wrong with the Pats game today.
Let's not get carried away, it's one game and like I mentioned in my season preview, the Jets aren't that good. It was a good start, something to build on, something for the Bolts to think about for next Sunday.
One last tangent if I may.
Look, I'm the biggest opponent of Pennington when he's playing against us, but I've got to give the guy credit. He makes very accurate passes to make up for his lack of arm strength. He plays with heart and determination and today he even played hurt. The Jets fans are a bunch of Jackasses for cheering when Pennington got hurt and struggled to get to the sidelines under his own power. Then they cheered even louder when Kellen Clemens, his backup, took the field. That was absolutely classless of the Jets fans. Nobody wants to win more than Pennington and that's what he gets for it. Was it Pennington's fault the Pats put 38 on the board against Manjuvenille? Typical New Yorkers.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
The Jet Set
When the Jets had success against the Pats it was the November game when the Jets D walked around the line of scrimmage at random positions and the Pats didn't know who was doing what. To combat that in the playoff game, the Pats rushed to the line of scrimmage, snapped the ball quick and just plowed over the Jets on their way to an easy victory. It'd be hard to imagine Manjuvenille will try that tactic again.
Here's what I think will happen on Sunday:
The one thing that the Pats haven't done on O against Manjuvenille is the no huddle, 4wr spread sets. The one you saw against Minnesota last season. Undoubtably the Jets will be trying to stop the run because the Pats ran all day against them in the playoff win. Therefore, the Pats surprise the league by unleashing all the new toys on O. Pass, Pass, Pass, Pass, Pass, Draw, Pass, TD!
Defensively, the key to the game is stopping Coles and Cotchery. It is yet to be seen how healthy Thomas Jones is and I think the Jets will have trouble running the ball. Coles and Cotchery will get their catches, but the Pats DB's have to tackle them for little to no gain once they make the catch. Do you remember the damge they did after the catch last year? I do and I'm sure the Pats do.
I expect the Jets to take a step back this season becasue they played over their heads last year. This game should be a pretty easy one for the Pats.
PATRIOTS 31
JETS 13
