Friday, October 28, 2005

What to watch for in Foxborough

Sunday night will mark the return of one Tedy Bruschi. At home, national audience, division opponent. If the Pats can't get fired up for this one they're dead. Those fans are going to go insane anytime Bruschi walks on the field. Two Pats to watch this week that Bruschi will have a direct effect on will be Eugene Wilson and Chad Brown. Bruschi can take the Defensive reads and calls away from Wilson and Brown will be able to be a role player again, playing only some on the inside, mostly on the outside as a pass rusher. He is a devastating pass rusher that has to be accounted for, but he hasn't been able to fill that role because he's had to be Bruschi in the middle.

The Bills are horrible against the run and they can't pass either. In their last 11 games they've failed to throw for 200 yards. It's been 37 games since they've thrown for 300. People are calling for JP Losman to be the starter over Holcombe, conceding this season and letting the kid learn on the job. That leads me to believe the key to the game for the Pats is to stack the line of scrimmage and stop McGahee at all cost. The Pats will once again play a soft zone D in the secondary, but against such a feeble passing attack that should be effective enough. The whole game will rest on the ability to stuff the run. On the other side of the ball, the experts are expecting this to be Dillon's break out game. The Bills are weak up the middle since the loss of Pat Williams and they have an undersized middle line backer. I've said this before and been completely wrong, but watch for Belichick to use Watson/Graham a lot this week vs the aging Lawyer Milloy. If Milloy has to worry about covering those guys, he can't be hovering around the line of scrimmage in run support.

The Pats should be able to score at will against this team, so it's really just a question of what the Defense will do. Buffalo is very strong on special teams, especially Terrence McGee. He averages 34.5 yds/return and could run one back any time. A bad special teams play could make the difference in this game if the Defense doesn't show up.

My pick is the Pats by two TD's 34-20. Dillon will have 80-90 yds and a TD. Branch will have 8-10 catches and two TD's and one of the TE's will have a TD.

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