Pats vs Jags

Well, they got the 'ideal' matchup when they drew Jax. Warm weather team, primarily a running O, a secondary that isn't very deep, an immobile quarterback (assuming Del Rio isn't lying and they start Leftwich) and a team with almost NO playoff experience.

-The Pats are favored by 8.
-The weather on Saturday night is expected to be 20-25 degrees with little or no chance of snow. Winds 7-8 mph.
-I've yet to find a national guy that has picked Jax to win this one. Given his history though, Ron Borges of the Globe might pick Jax. (remember he picked the Rams to beat the Patriots 73-0 in SB 36)
-In the final ESPN power rankings, the Patriots finished 4th, behind the Colts, Seattle and Denver. The Jags finished 11th. What does that really say about a 12-4 team? Only 3 other teams in the NFL had 12 or more wins by the way.

The Numbers

Overall Offense:
Pats 7th, Jags 15th
Passing Yds/gm
Pats 2nd, Jags 19th
Rush Yds/gm
Pats 24th, Jags 10th

Overall Defense:
Pats 26th, Jags 6th
Pass yds/gm allowed
Pats 31st, Jags 7th
Rush yds/gm allowed
Pats 8th, Jags 14th

Matchups:

I'm pretty confident that the Pats D will be able to shut down the Jags O given the fact that the Jags are a run oriented team and the Pats have recently shown the ability to stop the run. Fred Taylor and Greg Jones are both bigger backs and while Taylor has some explosiveness, he still qualifies as the type of bigger back that the Pats have always shown the ability to stop. IF the Jags decide to come out throwing they may find a mismatch with their tall receivers against out short secondary. They have 2 guys 6'4 and one 6'6. Their shortest receiver is their best, Jimmy Smith at 6'1, still an advantage over say, Hobbs at 5'9.

I see no reason why the Pats can't score at least 24 points against the Jacksonville Defense. They have 2 pretty good corners, one of which might not play on Sat. The #3 and 4 CB's on the Jags are a rookie and an undrafted rookie. It's interesting how everyone talks about how great the Jax D-line is, yet they are only 14th v.s the run, giving up 106 yds/game. It appears that the Patriots actually have a choice on O, spread'em out with 4 wide to force the rookie CB's into mismatches or line up with 3 TE's and run all over'em, playing ball control.
Ideally, I THINK the Pats should come out with the spread game, exploit the mismatches it presents, get a 10 or 14 point lead then play smashmouth. In the process, once J'ville gets behind they'll have to become a one dimensional, passing Offense with an immoble Leftwich a sitting duck for the likes of Colvin and McGinest.

An area of advantage for the Pats might also be the kicking game.
Josh Miller is 4th in the league with a 45.6 yd avg.
The Jags punter is 14th with a 42.2 yd avg

While we all know what Vinatieri can do in the cold and playoffs,
Josh Scobee is almost perfect this year inside 39yds, but from 40-49
yds, he is only 5-10.

Much like the Pats, the Jags don't really feature anythinkg special in the way
of a kick/punt returner.

So, are the Jacksonville Jaguars for real? I say NO. In addition to the evidence above, here's why:

1 The Jaguars have played a favorable schedule. They lost twice to Indy. They also lost to the hapless Rams. Their 4th loss was to Denver, a ligit team. They did beat Seattle but at home and on the first week of the season. They beat Pitt - with Tommy Maddox at QB! They also beat the Jets, Houston 2x, Cleveland, Arizona, San Fran, Baltimore and Tenn 2x. I am thoroughly unimpressed.

2 Just as the Patriots appear to be returning to health, the Jags are beginning to hurt. DE's Spicer and Hayward, 14 sacks between them, are both banged up. Their leading tackler, ILB Mike Peterson is also hurting and playing with a cast on his wrist (that ought to feel real good in the cold). Starting CB Kenny Wright hurt his knee last week and that may leave an untested rookie to start. Don't forget that Del Rio has elected to play Leftwich at QB, returning after missing 5 games with an ankle injury.


My pick? I think I've already said. I'll post my predicted score and a few updates on Friday.