A Look Forward

(Part 2 focusing on the Pats V. the Jets.)


So now you know what has happened in this series so far this season. Knowing what we know about the earlier matchups and the outcomes, I thought it would be easy to determine what will happen on Sunday. Then I looked at the spread and I had to look again, opening line on Monday was Pats by nine and today it still stands at nine. Hmmm. The previous two meetings were decided by a total of 10 points, but the Pats are favored by nine. What do the oddsmakers know? It is a line that will make even the most die hard Pats fan consider taking the Jets with the points. Because most of the betting will be on the Jets getting nine, the odds makers must think the Pats will win by ten or more. If there are any bettor's out there, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to use common sense here.

So let's say Pats by ten, 20-10. How could that happen?


Three keys to a Pats victory over the Jets on Sunday (and I don't mean by ten).

1. 3rd down.
The Jets O finished 4th overall in 3rd down conversions. They convert an astounding 43.8% of the time on 3rd down. The Pats D on the other hand has a 35.9 % success rate against it, good for 8th in the league. Conversely, the Pats O is right behind the Jets at 42.9%, 5th in the league, while the Jets D is at 36.5%, 10th in the league. Something's got to give. Don't get too upset or too excited if you see 2nd and 12 or 3rd and 8, hold your breath and watch what will happen on third down.

2. Special teams.
Obviously the Pats coverage teams stunk out the joint last Sunday against Pacman Jones. The Jets only pro-bowler is Justin Miller, their kick returner. The Pats need to do a great job covering this kid and it will be interesting to see if Belichick shows enough faith in his special teamers to kick to this kid. It's very possible they don't kick to him at all.
Another point to note is that Jets kicker Nugent has made 18 straight FG's. Gostkowski, well, no one really knows, but at least he'll have solid footing on the field turf.

3. Big Plays.
The only reason why the Jets were in the first game was the two big pass plays. The weather eliminated any chance of big plays in game 2, but the weather man is promising a sunny, 50 degree day for round 3. Since Pennington doesn't have the arm to go deep, the big play will be avoided if the Pats secondary just makes tackles on the Jets short passing game.
The Pats may need to show the ability to go deep for big plays early in this game, as Jets Safety Kerry Rhodes dominated the two early meetings with 20 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

I sincerely hope that I don't need to mention turnovers here.

I know that I'm just a humble blogger, but looking at the earlier games there is a pretty logical game plan for both sides for Sunday's game.

For the Jets on O it is simply to try to mix enough runs in to not have to pass on every third down. They will do their typical short passing game and be very efficient on third down. There is little chance of the Jets running successfully, but watch for them to ustilize the speed and quickness of Leon Washington with screens and draws. He can do the same thing that Jones-Drew did last week if the Pats are not careful.

For the Pats D to stop the Jets, they need to use the 4-3 just as they did in game 1. Stuff the run and generate a pass rush with the front four. There are 2 rookie O-lineman starting for the Jets as well as a relatively inexperienced journeyman. All four D-lineman are healthy and the fifth, Mike Wright, has played very well of late. This is where the game will be won. The key will be to try to make 3rd down difficult for the Jets by leaving them in 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 10 or longer as much as possible. It is also imperative that the Pats limit the yards after catch by Coles and co.

For the Jets D to be successful, they've got to do what they and others have done to stop the Pats in the Pats losses this season. Eight men in the box to stop the run and leave it up to the Pats WR's to make the big play.

For Josh McDaniels to keep his job, the Pats O should come out with the spread Offense. At least 4 wide and one RB or empty backfield. (I don not mean all WR's, it can be 2 WR a TE and Faulk for all I care, just spread'em wide.) The Jets can't put 8 men in the box and cover 4 or 5 receivers. The Jets can't blitz and cover 4 or 5 receivers. That tkaes them right out of their game plan. Andre Dyson, starting CB for the Jets is OUT for Sunday. That means the Jets depth chart at corner is: one starter (David Barrett), then rookie kick returner Miller and Hank Poteat. You've got to like the idea of having Brown against Miller or Gaffney vs Poteat. Spread'em, make the fast Jets LB's cover the field from sideline to sideline to wear'em down. Brady said he's got a good handle on what the Jets did in game 2. Not only does the spread offense limit the blitzing, it also allows #12 to do what he does best. The Pats can line up Dillon and company in the second half to kill the clock once they've established a good lead.


Because I think the Jets Wideouts are a bad match-up for the Pats DB's, I think the Jets will score a little, but I don't think the Pats will have any trouble scoring agianst the Jets. I'm with the odds makers on this one:
PATS 27 - JETS 13