I'm going to take some extra time to analyze this week's game, because quite frankly I'm having a very hard time coming up with 2 or 3 keys for the Pats to win the game. Yeah, I know, contain Tomlinson and make Rivers beat you. What else, the generic "don't turn the ball over"? I'd like to think I can give a little bit more insight than that. However, scour as I might, I've yet to find much info to pass on that's worth anything.
I couldn't help but worry about The Pats as a strong, smart Ohio State team had it's ass handed to it by a faster, more atheletic Florida team. Any of those adjectives apply to this weeks game? Strong, smart Pats; Fast, atheletic Chargers? I look at it in a positive light, if the Pats get beat because San Diego is so much quicker at every position, then Belichick and Pioli will set to work getting faster - especially on Defense. No Pats LB can run with Gates, nevermind Tomlinson. Are you confident that Hawkins could tackle Gates or LT after watching Cothery zoom right past him last week?
Not to sound all doom and gloom, the Pats do have some things working for them. It's just a matter of how much do these advantages really mean when it's time to take the field. In no particular order because I've yet to figure it all out, here are some advantages for the Pats:
Rivers inexperience and play down the stretch. Was the 18-53 with 2TD's and 2picks combined in weeks 15 and 16 the Rivers we can expect to see on Sunday? Or will we see the QB that has led massive come from behind 4th quarter victories?
Shottenheimer (however you spell it) Marty. His miserable playoff record speaks for itself. 5 wins, 12 losses. He's 1-3 in the 4 games in which he was the #1 seed. However, his notoriously conservative playoff approach may be lessened because he's letting the offensive coordinator call the plays this year.
The underdog role. Not many are giving the Pats a chance in this one. The Pats always thrive when nobody says they can do it.
Belichick. Obviously and advantage. He is 4-0 in the playoffs against the #1 seed.
Brady. No doubt the most clutch QB of our time. You've got to wonder if he still feels ill will towards Marty after the little war of words the last time the Bolts beat the injured Pats, not that he needs extra motivation.
A chemistry set. (not really) If they could devise a test for HGH (human growth hormone) maybe they could test Merriman this week and have him suspended for the game. There is currently no test that detects HGH. Then again, if there was, half the NFL or more would be suspended.
So it is back to the drawing board for me and a longer wait for those of you so anxiously awaiting my astute analysis.
On a side note, I think it's BS that you cannot buy a ticket for the game unless your billing address is in southern California. The Chargers are only selling to SoCal residents. If you want to go to the game, you'r gonna have to pay a scalping agency. Not that I was going to go, just that I think it's BS. "We want to maximize our home field advantage", was the Statement released by the Bolts.
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This morning (Thur, 1/11), D&C were talking to some NFL analyst. (Sorry, but I missed his name.) He predicted Pats to win, based on them having the better defense. According to this guy, if you use the defensive numbers to calculate a QB Rating, you get a pretty good correlation to how effective the defense is, and the Pats have the advantage.
Also, if I recall correctly, he said that the Pats gave up an average of 21 pt/game, while SD gave up 31 pt/game.
One of "Felger's 4 downs" tonight mentioned that the Chargers D is 20th in the league for yards/attempt on the run. BB believes that this is a MUCH better rushing defensive litmus test than yards/game, in which they are rated 7th. NE D is rated 10th in yards/attempt and 5th in yards/game. Both of these are better than SD. LT can run all day, and on average, each run won't gain as much as Dillon, Maroney, or Faulk can all gain. Also, LT will get tired much faster than our RB back committee. Once that happens, one of their 2 huge playmakers is slowly taken out of the game. I know that LT is dangerous and this shouldn't be taken lightly, but I think we actually have an advantage here. The only other teams with a better yds/attempt percentage that SD played, was Pitt and Baltimore. Pitt is horrible in more ways than one this year, so we know why they lost. But Baltimore was able to take down LT and the bolts. LT was held to his third lowest total yds, and Rivers had his 4th lowest total yds. The score of that game was close, as I think Sunday's game will be as well, but maybe we can pull off what Baltimore did.
Now, obviously slowing down LT and keeping our good run defensive stats in tact will be a primary concern. Another concern will be 4th quarter play. We all know the bolts are great with 4th quarter come backs, but when do the Pats pull out some of their best play? Given that Brady and BB will be behind this, I'm giving the advantage to the Pats on this one as well.
You know who I'd like to see play more this game? Dave Thomas. Grahm and Watson have been fine, but Thomas looked great against Jacksonville, and I think he could look good in SD.
This game is so tough to analyze. Almost every single stat you look at, the Pats and Bolts are so close to each other. If one is ranked 5th, the other is 7th. If one is 12th, the other is 16th. I mean come on!!! There are so few obvious stats to show one team is better than the other. Fortunately, this is why I think the Pats have the upper hand. It's the intangibles. The mind of BB. The poise of Brady. The experience of the entire team. This is where the Pats come out on top. Most of SD's top players barely have playoff experience under their belt. Marty has that shit playoff record, and lets his talent on the field make up for his lack of coaching. The playoffs is where you need a coach the most, and i'd take BB before anybody else on the planet....dead or alive.
No worries Tom. Just because those corn growers sucked donkey nuts, doesn't mean the Pats will. The playoffs in the NFL is way different than a Bowl Game. I mean come on....even Peyton Manning had a 3-1 record for bowl appearances. :)
A follow-up to my previous post...
These stats are for Total Opponent Offense Against, so they reflect the performance of the Defense.
Total Attempts (Rushing + Passing)
Pats 950 Bolts 985
Total Yardage Plays (Rushing + Completions)
Pats 682 Bolts 924
Total Yardage (Rushing + Passing)
Pats 4710 Bolts 4825
Touchdowns
Pats 24 Bolts 33
Take-Aways (Defensive Fumble Recoveries + Interceptions)
Pats 46 Bolts 40
If you put those numbers into the equation for Passer Rating (you can find it on Wikipedia), you get:
Pats 70.8 Bolts 81.3
Since this is a measure of the Opponents' Offensive Effectiveness, a lower number is better, so Pats win on Defense.
BUT...
If you do the same thing for Total Offense, you get:
Pats 87.8 Bolts 98.1
Obviously, in this case, a higher number is better, so the Bolts take the cheese on Total Offense.
I'll go with the old standby - "defense wins championships".
Pats win 37-31.
(Source: NFL.com, 2006 regular season stats)
I'm impressed with the work you guys have done! Though I can't say I'm shocked that an engineer would break the game down in to a mathematical equation.
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