FIFTY SIX to TEN?!?!?!?!

The Patriots beat the Bills 56 - 10 on Sunday night. The Bills, a team that was 5-4 and had won 4 straight games playing at home on national TV. The game was over at the end of the first quarter. The Pats could have scored 80. When it mattered the Pats had 7 drives that went as follows: 2 plays 13 yds TD, 6 plays 63 yds TD, 8 plays 72 yds TD, 10 plays 84 tyds TD, 12 plays 72 yds TD, 12 plays 73 yds TD, 10 plays 75 yds TD, 1 play 35 yds TD. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? If I hadn't seen it with my own eyes I woudn't have believed it.

Not much to say about that one. Brady was awesome, Moss was unstoppable, the O-line was impenetrable, Adalius was dominating, Sanders had a great game at Safety. OK, Maroney's still dancing and got benched for it, but with the Offense scoring at will this team could win the superbowl with Kyle Eckel. The convincing margins they've posted in their wins have caused many to say that this might be the greatest football team EVER assembled.

Some of those calling the Pats the best ever include Madden, Banks, Felger, Collinsworth, King etc etc. Of course it goes without saying that the Pats have to win out and take the superbowl in February, but these guys don'y see anyone in the Pats way. Here's the numbers: The 85 bears are widely considered the best team in the modern football era. That year, going 15-1 they beat teams by an average of 16 points per game. The greatest show on turf, Superbowl champion 1999 Rams won by an average of 17.7 pts/game. So far this season the Pats have won by an average of 25.4 points per game. That's more than 26 teams in the league score per game! That's the largest avg margin of victory since the 1942 Bears wond by 34 points/game. Again I say, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

The 5-5 Eagles are coming to town this Sunday. The Pats are favored by 23.5 points, the biggest regular season spread (not including expansion teams) since the early 70's. I say that spread is not enough. The Pats will tell you it's not enough.

Bob Kraft told Madden and Michaels that in order to clear their name of videogate, the Pats will have to win every game this season convincingly. Tom Brady told Dennis and Callaghan that they're not trying to beat teams 42-28, they're trying to kill teams, trying to blow them out. Don't think the Pats will "kill" the Eagles? One of Philly's WR's at the time of videogate was quoted as saying that maybe the NFL should give them superbowl rings since the Pats cheated to win. Enough said.

Have a great Tanksgiving!!!

Tell your family and friends you heard it here!!

The Buffalo Game

The 5-4 Buffalo Bills will host the Pats this weekend in a game that NBC has picked for their prime time, 8pm game. What were they thinking? Many feel this will be a blowout and NBC won't do so well in the ratings. NBC is betting that the Pats pursuit of a perfect season will draw a large audience. It also doesn't hurt that the Bills have won 4 in a row and are two field goals from being 7-2, with the additonal wins coming against Denver and Dallas. Maybe NBC knows what they're doing afterall. Did you see the battle the Bills gave Dallas on a Monday night in Buffalo? It was a great game. I'm not buying any of it though, this should be a blow out. The Bills top threat on an anemic offense, Marshawn Lynch, is probably not going to play.

The only thing that could make this game interesting would be revenge. Losman will be back in as the starting QB. You'll recall Wilfork's hit in the first meeting that got him a fine and knocked Losman out of the game. Losman has downplayed the story all seek saying that Wilfork probably didn't mean to hurt him and football is football. But Losman doesn't play defense. As a Pats fan you just have to hope that no one takes out his revenge on Brady. That's pretty much the storyline for this game.

Statistically this game should be a blowout. Here are the numbers:


Bills Pats
Total Offense 31st 1st
Rushing O 17th 7th
Passing O 28th 2nd
Pts/game 27th (15.9) 1st (39.4)

Total Defense 28th 4th
Rushing D 20th 7th
Passing D 28th 2nd
Pts allowed/game 9th 5th


My take is an easy win. The Pats will come out and make a statement with a couple of TD's right off the bat. Hopefully the Pats can try to establish their running game and try to get Maroney on track. I'd like to see him get the ball 20-25 times.


Patriots 41
Bills 10

TOP TEN; Odds and Ends

TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 Patriots
2 Steelers
3 Cowboys
4 Packers
5 Colts
6 Chargers
7 Jaguars
8 Giants
9 Lions
10 Titans

Yes, it's true. The Steelers are the #2 team and will probably be the #2 seed in the AFC. They are the toughest test remaining on the Pats schedule. Pittsburgh's Defense is #1 overall, #1 against the Pass, #1 against the Run, #1 in points allowed. The offense is #5 overall, #1 running and #5 in points scored. We all know that Defense and the ability to run the ball wins championships. Don't forget that Roethlesberger is having a career year. The rest of the way the Steelers opponents have a combined record of 24 wins and 39 losses. Take away the 9-0 Patriots and Pitts opponents the rest of the way are 15-39. I can see them finishing at 13-3.

The Colts on the other hand, are in survival mode. The loss of Freeney for possibly the entire season is a huge blow to this team. Injuries have decimated them, but that's their own fault. If you want to pay your 4 best players nearly half of your salary cap space and you want to have a small, quick defense then people are going to get hurt and you're not going to have the depth to win. Deal with it. What did the Pats have, something like 41 different starters when they won the superbowl in 2004? Did anyone notice Manning was trying too hard to win on Sunday night's loss. Last year was Manning's worst statistically, because he managed games, threw the ball away, made dump offs. Now he's playing like he has to win the game himself and he's forcing the ball where it shouldn't be thrown. That formula has never won for him and it's only going to get worse while his supporting cast is hurt. The remaining opponents have a record of 29-34. I can also see them losing at least one more game and finishing at BEST 13-3. The tie braker currently belongs to Pittsburgh, who has the better AFC record. That puts the Colts in the playoffs as a 3rd seed. A scenario of their playoffs goes something like this: host a physical Jacksonville team in the wild card game, travel to Pittsburgh who's just had a bye week playing in the cold on grass against another very physical team and the best defense and if they win that one come to New England. Doesn't look good for Manning and Co. does it?



PAT'S MOVES

Watch for Chad Jackson to start to get some playing time at WR. They have also activated Eddie Jackson, CB and special teams whiz. This will severely limit Kelley Washington's time. But why would they use 2 roster spots for Jackson ( a WR who can't play special teams and Jackson ( a CB who only plays special teams) when you've got Washington who does both? The asnwer is easy, the Pats need to determine how good Jackson might be next season so they can make up their minds on Donte Stallworth's mammoth contract.
The clock is also ticking on Troy Brown, who must be activated or placed on IR or released by Nov 21st.


SAN FRAN'S PICK:

If the draft were tomorrow, the Pats would hold SF's pick, the #4 overall pick in the draft. WOW. More than likely the Pats would trade out of that high spot for something lower and another first rounder next season, but let me run with this for a minute. Some available players include Glenn Dorsey of LSU - a next defensive line stud and future replacement for Seymour Money; Kenny Phillips of Miami - a playmaking hard hitting safety who has been compared to Ed Reed and Sean Taylor (drafting the Safety allows Merriweather to play corner when Samuel leaves next year); Darren McFadden from Arkansas - if you don't know who McFadden is I feel sorry for you, let's just say he's Adrian Peterson all over again.

Watch for Friday's preview of the Bills game. Until then here's a stat for you to boast about:
The Pats have scored 46 TD's this year.
The Bills have scored 14 TD's this year.
The Bills are second in the division in TD's.

KARMA aka HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!

Boy I just LOVE it when Peyton Manning loses. Before I get into any of that though, you must read this ESPN page 2 article by Bill Simmons. He pretty much sums up the way most of Patriot Nation does after last week's win at the Colts.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071109&sportCat=nfl

Now for the Karma. No, I did NOT get to watch the entire Chargers Colts game, but I saw enough. I was having a wonderful evening seeing a couple of the Manning intercepetions. It got better when the officials actually respotted a ball after a replay investigation of a favorable Colts spot. That made it 4th down. The Colts lined up to go for it and performed an illegal shift, false start with 3 guys moving at once. Then Mr. Clutch Vinatieri comes in and misses the game winner from only 29 yards. This is Karma heaven for a Pats fan! Two missed FG's for overpaid Adam on the night. The cherry on top came watching Manning throw his 6th interception to end the game. How wonderful!

It only got bad when ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth spent literally 20 minutes making excuses for the Colts. It was an emotional game against the Pats last week, injuries played a big role, the weather didn't help, the officiating was bad. BOO HOO. The fact of remains that the Colts would have more depth if they didn't pay top dollar for Manning Harrison Freeney Wayne, etc etc, etc.

Yup, I'm going to savor this one for quite a few days.

Fallout from Indy, Awards, Top Ten

They can say whatever they want. People have known for years that dome teams mic up the crowd and play it back through the Public Address system. You know the Pats would do the same thing if they were playing in a pansy dome.

I for one am happy that Belichick had a cold handshake waiting for Dungy. Dungy only compared Belichick to Barry Bonds.

Now the media are giving the Colts a good chance to beat the Pats in the rematch because Indy ran the ball well and they had injuries. Ummm NO. The Pats didn't play that great and chose to play the pass instead of the run with 6 men in the box. Not to mention the penalties - again. Mike Perriera, the NFL head of officials said the pass interference on HObbs was a good call. Like I said, I'm not surprised. My friend Tom Curran at NBCSports.com laid out 10 plays he noticed the refs screw up in favor of the Colts.


MID SEASON PATRIOT AWARDS:

MVP - Tom Brady It all begins and ends with Brady

Offensive Player - Randy Moss

Best Overall Player - Wes Welker

Best Defender - Vrabel 47 tackles and 8.5 sacks

Biggest Disappointment - Loss of Sammy Morris to IR

Biggest Waste of Money - Seymour Money

Worst Offensive Coordinator in the History of Football - Joshy


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:

1 - Patriots
2 - Colts
3 - Steelers
4 - Cowboys
5 - Packers
6 - Titans
7 - Giants
8 - Lions
9 - Browns
10- San Diego

9-0

The game of the century lived up to the hype - for once. Who would have thought it? Certainly not I. I knew the Colts D was good, but I never imagined they were THAT good. After the game, most experts were crowning the Pats as superbowl champion, giving the Colts no chance to win in Foxborough in January. They are dead wrong. What wins games in January? Good defense and a good running game. It's pretty obvious that the Colts possess both and pretty obvious that the rematch not only will happen, but also that it will be another close game. As good as the Colts were running it and playing D, let's face it the Pats weren't on their game and were still able to pull it out against it all.

I already know what the league will do about rookie referree John Parry and his officiating crew. Nothing. The league needed this to be a close game. That's why the Pats got a franchise record 146 penalty yards to a mere 25 for the Colts. I'm not a math whiz, but that's about 121 free yards for the Colts. Add that to the 329 yds the Colts 'earned' and you get a total of 450 yds. Yet, somehow the Pats D was fantastic and quite simply they won this game by overcoming Manning and the officials and keeping the Pats in the game long enough for the offense to mount it's comeback.

How good was the Pats defense? Take away the bullshit pass interference calls and a flukey 73 dump off to Addai before the half and the Colts would have a total of 7 points. Yup, a 24-7 blowout of the mighty Colts AT Indy. Not only did they hang tough early, but they closed the game out in the fourth. When the Pats pulled within three, the D forced a punt. When the Pats went ahead leaving Manning 3+ minutes to score the winning TD, the D stepped it up and made Manning turn it over. Ballgame.

The difference Rodney Harrison makes can not be overlooked. He held Dallas Clark to 2 catches, picked off a pass and finished with 6 tackles.

Oh and don't forget that the Pats D had one other obsticle to overcome, perhaps the biggest of all. One Josh McDaniels. I've had no reason to get on Joshy yet this season, but that's just because the talent on O has been enough to win games so far. In a game where they needed some offensive strategy, the offense was feable for 51 minutes. That's a direct result of an inept offensive coordinator, my friend Joshy. Where do I begin? Moss catching balls inside of 5 yds while sending Stallworth deep for a jump ball. Not getting the ball to Welker until the fourth. If you want to or have to throw quick passes to the WR throw them to Stallworth and Welker, not Moss. How about Maroney running for nearly 5 yds/carry in the first half and then getting one touch in the second half - a 3rd and one that they refused to account for and block Bob Sanders. Good job Joshy. Did anybody know coming into this game that Dwight Freeney is a great pass rusher? Maybe we all should have told Joshy about Freeney. How many times was he in Brady's face, forcing an early throw or an incompletion or nailing Brady right after he threw it. Joshy, Matt Light needs help with Freeney before he kills Brady. Here's a suggestion for you. Line up Kyle Brady next to Light and let them beat down Freeney the entire first half. How about lining Rodney up in the slot and having him run down the line and smash Freeney a few times. Beat his ass into submission and THEN single him up with Light. A realistic way to slow the pass rush is to use the screen pass. Joshy used the screen pass once. ONCE! Take notice Joshy, I'm not letting you off the hook for the rest of the season.

The fact is, that this game was won in the offseason. When it came down to it Brady hit Moss, Moss Moss, Stallworth, Moss, Welker, Moss and Welker. How about the one handed grab that Moss made? I've never seen a catch that good. Moss had his second TD of the game taken away on another bullshit call, offensive pass interference on Moss who never even touched the defender. Moss was unstoppable, but it was Welker that made the difference in the game. His returns in the fourth set up the TD drives. And he made an incredibly smart play on his last catch. The Pats were facing 3rd and 7, if they didn't convert Manning was gettng the ball back. Welker runs a great route, makes the catch and then drops like he got shot before rinning out of bounds. If he runs out, the Pats need to make another first down. Instead, he flops, stays in bounds and the Pats take a knee the rest of the way. Genius.

In the postgame Manning said they need to get healthy. The fact is, in the fourth quarter with the game on the line and the Pats closing in, Manning had two chances to end the game. He choked. First posession 5 plays and a punt. Second posession 5 plays and a Manning 'fumble' into the hands of Colvin. Two drives that took a total of 4:50. Better get your team healthy Peyton. Good excuse but typical of Manning - blame everybody else.

But these Colts are very good and they'll be back, on January 21st as a matter of fact, in the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. Peyton's already got his excuse, it's gonna be cold.

And The Winner Is

Just in case you haven't heard, seen or read enough about Sunday's clash of the undefeateds, (and you probably haven't or you wouldn't be reading this) I'll give you my take. As I touched on in my last post, things seem to have inverted themselves in this rivalry. This week it will be Indy trying to have long drives to keep the Pats off the field. Does it feel weird to read that, because it was weird to type it. The thing that makes gives me doubts about this game is that, for once, Indy has a good defense.

Indy's D is 4th in total yards and 1st against the pass. That's not a type-o. The Colts have given up the fewest yds per game in the air than any team in the NFL. I know, the Titans, Jags, and Panthers don't exactly qualify as teams with legit passing games, but the Saints (8th) Texanas (4th) and Denver (13th) certainly do. Here's what Indy did to them. Brees had 192 yds and 2 INTs, Schaub had 236 yds and 2 INTs and Cutler had 131 yds and an INT. Don't forget that I've already called Bob Sanders the best defensive player in football. The Indy D may be susceptible to the run, however. They're 13th in the league, giving up 107 yds/game. And you've got to figure the Colts have been ahead in most games so teams would be passing more than running.

Nothing has to be said about the Patriots offense that will face this Indy D. The fact remains that this is one of the all time great ofenses and Indy's D has never seen the likes of an O this good.

As far as Indy's Offense goes, they could be in match-up hell. Rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh is banged up and gets to face a healthy Seymour money. (Big C 93 had better dominate this week.) Marvin Harrison probably won't play and if he does he'll be a fracton of himself and easily covered by Hobbs. Dallas Clark won't have Eric Alexander to pick on. Instead he gets a guy in Adalius Thomas that's bigger, faster and smarter than he is. Reggie Wayne will get Asante Samuel with safety help from Sanders and or Harrison and co. Wayne is good, but not if he's the only weapon.



Three keys to the game

First, the aforementioned matchup between Clark and Thomas. If Thomas slows Clark to 4-5 catches and no TD's the Pats are in good shape.

Second, can the Pats front 7 contain Joseph Addai. The Colts have had a lot of success running the ball this year and have run nearly 50% of the time, a feat rarely accomplished in the Manning era.

Third, special teams for field position. The Pats are 3rd in the NFL in kick returns while the Colts kick off team is 21st and has given up 5 TD's on kick returns since the start of last season. Here's why field position is important. So far this season, the Patriots have scored a TD 79% of the time when they've had to go 80 or more yards. The Colts have scored a TD only 12% of the time when having to go 80 or more yards.


Here's what I see

I see videogate, three losses in a row to the Colts, a loss in the AFC cahmpionship game, Tony Dungy comparing Belichick to Barry Bonds, "tarnished" superbowls, and an off season spent collecting talent to match up against the Colts. The Pats are on a mission not only to send a message to the league, but also to remind the Colts who the best team of the decade is. The Pats are going to come out firing on all cylinders for four quarters like we've never seen them before. All you're going to be able to say at the end of this one is "Wow."


Patriots 48
Colts 27

A Complete Reversal

We've all watched the epic battles before, nine of them to be exact. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The Pats always had their way with the Colts and it seems like that's not the only thing that's changed over the years.

The Pats always USED to beat the Colts.
The Colts have won the last three meetings.

The Colts USED to get all the attention for setting records and possibly going undefeated (remember 13-0?) while the Pats flew under the radar.
The Pats are shattering records and all anyone's talking about is them going undefeated, while the Colts have quietly gone about their business - undefeated.

USED to be that only Tom Brady wins big games.
Manning won his superbowl.

Tom Brady never USED to have the weapons to match Manning's.
Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson, Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Gaffney.

Manning never USED to have a good defense.
Indy's 4th ranked D is giving up the fewest yds/game through the air and Bob Sanders is the best defensive player in the NFL (in my opinion).

Perception USED to be the Pats did things the right way with good guys.
Sunday's game has been billed as good vs. evil and the Pats aren't the ones with halo's painted over their heads.

Used to be only the Colts had all big money players.
Brady, Seymour, Thomas, Colvin, Stallworth, Samuel.

I used to hate Peyton Manning, Bill Polian and the whiney Colts.
I still do. SOME things will never change.

Running it up. Top Ten

The Patriots have scored 48, 49 and 52 points in their last three games for a point total that hasn't been achieved in the NFL since the early 1960's. Clearly they are running it up. Clearly they are sending a message to the league. Clearly Belichick's players are just fine with his ruthless demand to go out and keep scoring. They were humiliated by videogate and their superbowls have been questioned. Now they are out to humiliate the rest of the league where it counts the most, on the field. Last week's version of a Patriots bludgeoning was on the Washington Redskins.

There is no doubt that Brady was left in too long. No doubt that Belichick was pissed off when Washington scored a meaningless touchdown. The evidence that the players are all for the blowout? Just watch how mad Brady got at his O-Line when they jumped off-side in the red zone, in the fourth quarter, up by a score of 38-0.

I think the amazing thing about this team is that the two players that effected the outcome most barely showed up on the stat sheet. First, Adalius Thomas. His acquisition has allowed Vrabel to move back outside. Vrabel might be the best Outside linebacker in the league. He dominated on Sunday, recording 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 11 solo tackles. There is no way he does all that without Thomas in the middle.

Second, Randy Moss, who only showed up on the stat sheet with 3 catches for 47 yards and one TD. His presence on the field and the constant double and sometimes triple teams led to Welker's 9 cathces for 89 yds and a TD and Faulk's 7 catches for 57 yds, not to mention the space for Brady to run for his two TD's.

Overall it was a difficult game for me to watch. I mean, is Washington that bad or are the Pats that good? At one point int he fourth quarter I felt bad for Robert Kraft. The FOX broadcast was happy to show an uncomfortable Kraft when the Pats scored their 45th point and again when they put the 52 on the board. Yeah, it was nice to see the Pats score at will, but it did get a little uncomfortable for me when it became obvious that the Pats weren't going to stop scoring. Don't get me wrong, I'm in line with those that have said it's the other teams job to stop the Pats if they don't like the score. It's just that, I think 38 or 41 points would have been enough for me.

So now it's on to the team we'd all love to see the Patriots humiliate, the Colts. The problem is, we're not really sure if the Pats can even beat the Colts, nevermind doing so by a wide margin.

I'll have plenty more to post on this game later in the day today, (Thursday) and another post with my prediction on Friday.



TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:

1- Pats
2- Colts
3- Packers
4- Chargers
5- Cowboys
6- Steelers
7- Titans
8- Jaguars
9- Giants
10- Detroit