And The Winner Is

Just in case you haven't heard, seen or read enough about Sunday's clash of the undefeateds, (and you probably haven't or you wouldn't be reading this) I'll give you my take. As I touched on in my last post, things seem to have inverted themselves in this rivalry. This week it will be Indy trying to have long drives to keep the Pats off the field. Does it feel weird to read that, because it was weird to type it. The thing that makes gives me doubts about this game is that, for once, Indy has a good defense.

Indy's D is 4th in total yards and 1st against the pass. That's not a type-o. The Colts have given up the fewest yds per game in the air than any team in the NFL. I know, the Titans, Jags, and Panthers don't exactly qualify as teams with legit passing games, but the Saints (8th) Texanas (4th) and Denver (13th) certainly do. Here's what Indy did to them. Brees had 192 yds and 2 INTs, Schaub had 236 yds and 2 INTs and Cutler had 131 yds and an INT. Don't forget that I've already called Bob Sanders the best defensive player in football. The Indy D may be susceptible to the run, however. They're 13th in the league, giving up 107 yds/game. And you've got to figure the Colts have been ahead in most games so teams would be passing more than running.

Nothing has to be said about the Patriots offense that will face this Indy D. The fact remains that this is one of the all time great ofenses and Indy's D has never seen the likes of an O this good.

As far as Indy's Offense goes, they could be in match-up hell. Rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh is banged up and gets to face a healthy Seymour money. (Big C 93 had better dominate this week.) Marvin Harrison probably won't play and if he does he'll be a fracton of himself and easily covered by Hobbs. Dallas Clark won't have Eric Alexander to pick on. Instead he gets a guy in Adalius Thomas that's bigger, faster and smarter than he is. Reggie Wayne will get Asante Samuel with safety help from Sanders and or Harrison and co. Wayne is good, but not if he's the only weapon.



Three keys to the game

First, the aforementioned matchup between Clark and Thomas. If Thomas slows Clark to 4-5 catches and no TD's the Pats are in good shape.

Second, can the Pats front 7 contain Joseph Addai. The Colts have had a lot of success running the ball this year and have run nearly 50% of the time, a feat rarely accomplished in the Manning era.

Third, special teams for field position. The Pats are 3rd in the NFL in kick returns while the Colts kick off team is 21st and has given up 5 TD's on kick returns since the start of last season. Here's why field position is important. So far this season, the Patriots have scored a TD 79% of the time when they've had to go 80 or more yards. The Colts have scored a TD only 12% of the time when having to go 80 or more yards.


Here's what I see

I see videogate, three losses in a row to the Colts, a loss in the AFC cahmpionship game, Tony Dungy comparing Belichick to Barry Bonds, "tarnished" superbowls, and an off season spent collecting talent to match up against the Colts. The Pats are on a mission not only to send a message to the league, but also to remind the Colts who the best team of the decade is. The Pats are going to come out firing on all cylinders for four quarters like we've never seen them before. All you're going to be able to say at the end of this one is "Wow."


Patriots 48
Colts 27