TEST

Hello Patriots Report readers! The Patriots have gone 16-0 with another nail-biter that came down to the last minute. I'm going to give in depth analysis of the game as usual on Wednesday. Since this is a slow day for me and I was playing legos with my kids, I decided to diagram out the key play of the game. The record breaking, lead-taking 65 yard TD, Brady's 50th of the year and Moss' 23rd. Yeah, you guessed it, with legos. I've labeled the title of this post TEST, and I may just decide to delete this post altogether depending on your feedback. If you guys can get past the legos and you like the feature, I'll try to do it more. SO LET ME KNOW!!!!

Giants Defense in BLUE

Pats Offense is WHITE

Key Players hi-lighted YELLOW

Down and distance chains ORANGE

The Giants Defense waits for the Pats to break the huddle.

Brady comes to the line and identifies the Giants Defense as a Nickel because they have 5 defensive backs.

The other clue that the Giants are playing Nickel is they only have 2 linebackers on the field.

You always see Brady point to one of the linebackers before he goes into his snap count. He is pointing out the "Mike" or middle linebacker because once the O line knows who the "Mike" is they can identify their blocking assignments. The "other" linebacker on this particular play blitzed and Faulk picked him up. (not pictured in this sequence)

The Patriots line up with 4 wide, with Faulk in the backfield to Brady's right.

Moss is the wide receiver split to the right.

Welker is in the "slot" to the right.

As both Brady and Moss referenced after the game, the play was designed for Moss to run a "go" route, drawing both the CB assigned to him and the safety up the field.....

...so Welker would be left in single coverage to run a 10 or 11 yd out, enough to get the first down.

The Giants were on to the play and the cornerback assigned to Moss was to fake that he was going to follow Moss deep, then jump the Welker route.

That left the Safety in single coverage against Moss.

When the ball was snapped you see the cornerback assigned to Moss start to run downfield with Moss.....

...which gives the appearance that Welker is indeed single covered and will have no problem picking up a first down. Moss and Brady both called this play a "Trap", where the defense baits Brady to throw to Welker, then jumps the route, trying for an interception.

Brady read the cornerback as he jumped the Welker route and then hit Moss for the touchdown as he easliy streaked by the Safety.

That's the really simple version of it.

I haven't gone back to review the film, so I'm not positive the Giants were in nickel nor that the Pats were in 4 wide. But I think you get the idea of how Moss got so wide open and how unbelievable Tom Brady is.

Let me know what you think of the breakdown. If you enjoy it, I'll try it again. If it's stupid looking, let me know that too!

(I'm trying to fix the spacing, it got all messed up somehow!)

Giants Game, Notes

It is difficult to assume that both the Patriots and Giants will play their starters for the entire game Saturday night.

If I'm Giants coach Tom Coughlin, I sit my major players. The Giants are playing a wild card game at Tampa Bay next weekend regardless of what happens this week. With guys like Jacobs and Buress banged up and Shockey already lost for the season, I would rest them. Use this week as the bye week in preparation for the more important playoff game. Playing a QB like Manning without his weapons may only ruin his confidence going into the playoffs. However, Coughlin is making it appear as if he's going to play his starters and try to win.

If I'm Belichick, I play Brady and Co long enough to secure the 16-0 regardless of records. I don't doubt though, that Belichick would love to see Brady break Manning's TD record.

That being said, it might not be a bad idea to at least get Brady out of the game early. He's the one player the Pats cannot win without. The Giants just happen to lead the league in sacks with 52 and they possess the 8th best Defense against the pass. Getting Brady out of the game healthy is MORE important than going 16-0. Could you imagine if Brady wins the game, breaks the TD record and gets hurt in the 4th quarter? Two weeks to prepare Matt Cassell and the running game for a playoff game....yikes. Let's get Brady safely to the bench Bill!

I think Brady and the starters play through the 3rd quarter (unless they've got a huge halftime lead) and break the scoring record (4 points to break), the TD pass record (2 to break) and the TD catch record (2 to break). I don't think the Giants starters will play more than the 1st quarter if at all, but Coughlin can't come out and say that he's going to roll over and let the Pats win.

Patriots 42
Giants 10


Must-See TV

In an unprecidented move, the NFL agreed to simulcasts of this weeks Pats game. For those of us in the Pats local market without NFL network, we can see the game on WCVB channel 5. In addition, the NFL announced that the game will also be simulaneously broadcast on CBS and NBC. Why? Because the Patriots have been the biggest draw in all of television this season. The top 5 shows in 2007 according to Nielson ratings were Patriots, Patriots, Patriots, Patriots and CSI season premiere took the 5th spot. In addition, the Pats Ravens game on ESPN was the most watched cable show in the history of cable TV.


San Fran's Pick

It's pretty much a given that San Francisco and therefore the Patriots will have the 8th overall pick in the 2008 draft. SF has 5 wins and is playing a depserate Browns team fighting for its playoff life. The 3 teams with 4 losses are in the same boat: Oakland plays SD, Baltimore plays Pitt. Pitt and SD are vying for the 3rd seed in the playoffs. KC is playing at the Jets, with both teams having nothing to play for and Larry Johnson shut down for the year. It's safe to assume that we'll have the 8th pick.

Which brings us to James Laurinaitis, Inside Linebacker from Ohio State. NFL Draft Countdown has him slated to go to the Pats with the 8th overall pick. He's a smart player with great intangables. He's 6'3" 244lbs and runs a 4.6 in the 40. As a sophomore he won the Nagusrski award as the nations best defensive player. He's finishing his Junior year and it is assumed that he's turning pro. In 25 starts for OSU he's got 218 tackles, 17 tackles for a loss, 9 sacks and 7 Int's. For those of you that follow Pro Wrestling, his dad is Joe Laurinaitis, aka "the Animal" from the legion of doom. Personally, I like the OSU students that wear T-shirts that read, "I've got a case of Laurinaitis". If you're curious, you can watch OSU v LSU in the national championship game on Monday Jan 7th at 8pm. My two cents is that it just makes too much sense to bring him to New England, I'd love to see him here!


Parcells Follow Up

It looks like Sott Pioli may not be on the Tuna's radar for player personnel director or GM or whatever title you want to give him. Parcells will most likely go after Jeff Ireland of the Cowboys. Ireland's contract is up at the end of the season and he and Parcells worked side by side to build the current Cowboys roster. Now if we could only get him to hire Joshy....



Here's to 16-0 and a Great 2008 for all of us!

Miami Game; Top Ten

I'd like to start by thanking Johnathon Birs of Capital City Financial for hosting me in his luxury box for the Miami game. Johnathon's generosity is second only to his skill in the Financial World.


What are we to make of our star quarterback being in love with his favorite receiver? We've gone over it before that Brady has become Moss happy and it's ugly when he forces the issue. I guess we can take some solace in the fact that, when the games have been close, Brady has played like Brady is supposed to. It is only when the outcome has been determined that Brady starts to force the issue. Still, this team preached 60 minutes of football all year and that shouldn't change just because they are nearing some records.

The Patriots put on a show in the first half on offense, defense and special teams. They were completely dominant. Brady was 14 0f 18 for 163 yds and 3 TD's. Maroney made the most of the 4 carries he got by turning in long runs of 51 and 59 yds and one TD. The Defense held Miami to only 103 yds to go along with 3 three and outs. So what the heck happened in the second half?

As for the offense in the second half it was the Brady Moss love fest. Brady was just 4 of 15 for 52 yds, got picked twice trying to force it to Moss and fumble once while waiting for Moss to clear a deep route. There were guys open on just about every force to Moss. The advantage of being at the game is you don't have to watch what the networks show you. I repeatedly watched Gaffney and Welker get open and to a lesser extent Stallworth. But the ball went to Moss. I think it's hard to get on the rest of the team for letting up a little against Miami. I mean, there was no way in the world Miami was going to put up 28 points in that game. The Pats new that too and they let up a little. The Defense gave up long drives, but as usual, for the most part didn't give up the score.


Game observations:

It seems like Gaffney has become Brady's go to guy on 3rd downs. He had three catches on 3rd down in the first half, all of which went for first downs.

It was nice to see the Pats making big hits, both in the secondary and on special teams.

I felt badly for Troy Brown when he muffed that punt. The place was electric when they introduced him pre game and he got a standing O every time he took the field. We were all hoping he'd get a TD catch to break the "most players on one team to score a TD in one season" record. The Pats have 21 players that have scored a TD.

Granted Miami stinks against the run but Maroney had 156 yds on 14 carries, 5 of which came with 3 minutes left in the game to kill the clock. Most importantly, Maroney found holes and ran hard.

Which gets me to Joshy. I had the whole luxury box screaming at him by the middle of the 3rd quarter. (Great fun for me!)
It started on the Pats second posession of the game. Incomplete pass, run Faulk around the right side for 7 yds then sprint to the line and run Faulk on the exact same play on 3rd and 3. The result was a loss of 2 and a punt. Good job Joshy. Then there was the 3rd quarter possession that started on their own 6 inch line. Joshy comes out with 5 wide empty backfield. Do you think Miami knew what the Pats were going to do? I'm happy with a pass from your own end zone, especially with Brady throwing it. But you've got to do it off play action. There HAS to be some THREAT of a run. Go 4 wide with one back, play action and throw or just throw, but at least there's a chance you MIGHT run if there's a RB in the backfield. Not Joshy. 5 wide incomplete, 5 wide incomplete and 5 wide incomplete - Punt. Maroney had 5 meaningful 2nd half carries with the Pats up by 28 points. Is it the passing game that needs work going into the playoffs or the running game? It's not like they weren't able to run the ball against Miami. It's not like they couldn't run it all the way down field and then throw it to Moss for his TD. Please Mr. Parcells, PLEASE hire Josh McDaniels and take him away from us!


TOP TEN

1 Pats

2 Colts

3 Cowboys

4 Chargers

5 Jaguars

6 Packers

7 Steelers

8 Seahawks

9 Titans

10 Browns

Miami: the Game and the new VP

Let's drink the Belichick cool aid for a moment.

Don't let the spread fool you. Don't let Miami's record fool you either. Don't think Miami will be a tough opponent? A closer look at the last time these two teams played back in October might be a little eye opening. The Pats won 49-28 in good weather. Take away the two freak-like catches Moss made on the Brady long balls and the score is 35-28. Take away the Willie Andrews kick return TD and you've got a tie game. They gave up 28 points to the Dolphins, who lost Ronnie Brown to injury during the game. Despite the loss of Brown, Miami ran for 6 yds per carry including 10 yds per carry by backup Jesse Chatman while gaining 180 rushing yards. CLEO LEMON was 24 of 37 passing for 236 yds. That's a 65% completion percentage.

Now factor in the the Pats are a passing team that will be playing in high winds and possible rain on Sunday. Miami is the 4th BEST defense in the league against the pass. Miami is last against the run, but in the last game the Sammy Morris-less Pats ran for a grand total of 84 yds, 3.8 yds per carry. And that was playing with the lead the entire game.


The Reality

The reality is that the Pats are motivated as hell to go undefeated, especially against the Dolphins. The Dophins won their game last week and have nothing to play for at all this week except to avoid injury and get to the golf course. The Pats will win this one in the first quarter. The only question will be how long Belichick let's Brady and Moss play and how close they can come to the passing TD records.



Dolphin Friendly Tuna

Bill Parcells has officially joined the fins as the VP in charge of all football operations. That will have no effect on this game whatsoever. Miami probably won't be 'good' again next year either, more like 2009 or 2010. Parcells might become a factor vs the Pats when he starts hiring though. Think he doesn't know all about Dante Scarnechia or Pepper Johnson or (hopefully) Josh McDaniels? What about his son-in -law Scott Pioli? Parcells always goes with who he knows, so Dallas and the Pats should both be on Tuna alert. He'll be raiding coaching staffs and players alike.



The Pick

Patriots 35
Dolphins 0

Brady gets the record early in the 3rd Quarter then rides the bench the rest of the way. The 35 point total would also break the record of most points scored in a single season in NFL history.

The Jets Game, Notes, Top Ten

JETS GAME

Well the Jets game was certainly ugly and not strictly because of the weather. I kept telling anyone that would listen to take the Jets and the points this week, I hope they listened. The worst thing that could happen to the Patriots happened when Seymour money knocked Clemens out of the game early in the first quarter. It seems that everyone knows Pennington is a better QB than Clemens except Mangina and jets fans. Pennington MUST be better than Clemens since he totally outplayed Brady on Sunday.

Let's hope Brady's performance was just an aberration. Given his track record, he'll be unbelievable this week against Miami. It's just discomforting to see him force the ball to Moss when he's got 2 or 3 guys open underneath. You know it's obvious when even the network picks up on it and shows replays of it. Brady was 14 -27 52%, for 140 yds, NO TD's and one interception. (Pennington finished 25-38 66% for 186.) Don't get me wrong, I'd never want Pennington over Brady, I'm merely illustrating my point that Brady is a much better QB when he's not forcing the issue. He threw to Moss on 13 of his 27 passes and only completed 5 (including that miraculous 46 yd catch late in the fourth) and one got picked off.
I'll just caution you to watch Brady this week. If he's still forcing it and continues to force it to Moss the Pats will be one and done in the playoffs. Good thing they have a running game.

Or do they? Maroney ran 26 times for 104yds against a Jets team ranked 30th against the run. In addition, the Jets were mostly playing Nickel and Dime defenses with only 2 or 3 D-Linemen. Still, Maroney only managed a long run of 11 yds. I'm very skeptical of this team being able to win at home in January.


NOTES

While were on the subject of the Pats running game, Mike Reiss of The Boston Globe posted some statistics on his Blog. As it turns out, my doubts about the Pats running game are unfounded. Here's how Reiss breaks it down, the Patriots are:

-averaging 4 yds per carry (they have only averaged 4 yds per carry once in the last 20 yrs-2004)

-gaining 4 yds or more on 47.5% of running plays, highest in the league this year.

-have had a 100 yds rusher 4 times this year (as opposed to only 3 last season)


Congratulations to the Pats 8 Pro Bowl Players:
Tom Brady, Dan Koppen, Matt Light, Logan Mankins,
Randy Moss, Asante Samuel, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork.

I'm not sure I'd put Light on the list and I would have liked to have seen Welker and Warren go.



TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 - Patriots I would have put them 2nd, but the Colts nearly lost to Oakland.

2 - Colts Close to being overtaken by Jax, but they beat Jax twice.

3 - Jaguars - evidently they are the team no one wants to play in the postseason.

4 - Cowboys - Stumbling into the playoffs, GREAT!

5 - Packers - Another nice win this week, watch out for the Pack.

6 - Vikings - I had to put them above the 9-5 teams 'cuz they are a hot team right now.

7-10 Chargers, Browns, Buccaneers and Pittsburgh, all in a tie.
I can't make heads or tails of any of them.


Tell your friends you heard it here: JASON TAYLOR WILL BE A PATRIOT NEXT SEASON.

Jets Game

All indications are that the Pats are going to win this one by a large margin. Many have given us previews that include the worst blowouts of all time in the NFL. All the experts expect the Pats to pile on this week as a result of Videogate. This will be Belichick's chance to put it back in the collective face of the Jets franchise.

On paper, it looks like the Pats should have an easy time this weekend. The Jets Defense is pathetic, 28th overall in the league. They are 30th against the run and 11th against the pass and have given up the 25th most points this season. Don't read too much into the jets 11th ranked pass defense. When teams get a lead they run the ball, you know the routine. The Jets Offense hasn't exactly thrived under Kellen Clemens. They are 26th in total offense, 19th running and 23rd passing and 24th in points scored. The experts will tell you that this will be a blowout.

I'm going to tell you that the Pats will win, but it won't be anywhere near historical in terms of margin of victory. First and foremost, the weather might throw a wrench into everything. It could be a 3-0 nothing game if the weather is bad enough. Weather aside, let's assume it's going to be 60 degrees and sunny with no wind. I still think the game will be closer than most anticipate.

It's not going to be 56-10, I know that much for sure and here's why. Pride. Let's imagine for one moment that you are a professional athelete. Take it one step further, that you play for the Jets. All week long and probably some of last week too, all you've heard is how the Pats are going to blow you out. Everyone's telling you that you can't compete against them, that you don't even belong on the field against them. The only debate is how badly that Pats are going to beat you. Are you going to roll over and play dead? Not show up? No, you're going to give all you've got, this is your PRIDE on the line. I sincerely believe that playing for your personal pride is a bigger motivation than getting revenge for your coach. That doesn't mean I think the Jets wil win, but they'll keep it pretty respectable.


Patriots 31
Jets 16

Tom's Top Ten Teams....and a bonus

I didn't have a chance to research this for the earlier posting today.


1. Pats good to see them play like they're capable

2. Colts going to be scary in January

3. Cowboys destiny's team?

4. Packers Favre's got a serious running game

5. Steelers can't drop'em too far for losing to the Pats

6. Jaguars Good D and nobody better to put here

7. Chargers Aweful win at Tennessee

8. Bucs I told you so!

9. Seahawks Win streak vs very bad teams

10. Browns Go Romeo



Here is a Brady comercial I've never seen before and it's rather appropriate for this week:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY4UwcokerE&feature=related

(Don't forget to watch the Brady f-bomb video on the "related videos" menu. THe Belichick one's not so bad either!)

Steelers Game

What a difference a half makes. The Pats looked shakey on Offense and beatable on Defense. In the first half it looked as though the Steelers would win this one. They had long scoring drives, held the Pats to 3 and outs and were even getting some breaks. How many times did you see Vrable come around the corner and almost get to Rothloesberger while being TACKLED by the O line? I saw one series of 5 in a row.

Take away the bomb to Moss and the Pats scored 7 first half points. Brady was pressured into hurried throws that became incompletions, they went 3 and out twice and failed to score when Pttsburgh muffed the punt. The Steelers had scoring drives of 59,77 and 36 yds in the first half. In the second half, Brady had time to throw and the Pats had scoring drives of 89,50 and 89 yds. All of those drives would have been TD's except that Moss dropped a Brady laser in the back of the end zone. (Brady later said that he was glad Moss dropped it, because he threw it as hard as he could and it was nice to know he's still got it.)

On Defense the half started with two punts. Then, as the Pats D usually does, it was bend but don't break. It was also very encouraging to see the Pats make some stops in the red zone, though they are still last in the league in red zone D, at least they're trending the right way. The Steelers drove for 56 and 57 yds twice, before being stopped on 4th down plays. It shows the difference in coaching. The Pats saw what blitzes Pittsburgh was using and adjusted the protection accordingly. Brady was hit only once and was not sacked. the Steelers, on the other hand, kept doing the same things on D and never adjusted. They could run the ball almost at will (see 32 rushes for 182 yds) yet at the goal line they call a shovel pass, a fade pass and a reverse to Ward. STUPID. JUST STUPID. Credit to Rodney for his text book coverage on the fade and then making the stop on Ward at the goal line, but those were just STUPID play calls. Maybe Joshy isn't the only incompetent offensive coordinator in the league.

So much for drafting McFadden with the first round pick. The Pats just don't need to run the ball. They called pass plays 37 straight times to take command of the game. The best example came on the drive that started at their own one yard line. They hit Welker 4 straight times to move into Steeler territory and there was no one getting anywhere near Brady.

Speaking of passing...has anyone seen Donte Stallworth? Looked to me like Gaffney was out there more than Stallworth in 3 wide receiver sets, not to mention Gaffney's production (7 catches 122 yds and a TD). Moss had 7 catches for 135 yds and 2 TDs, while Welker had 9 catches for 78 yds and a TD.



I think...

Stallworth is definitley OUT next season

Watson is the easiest tight end in the league to tackle

Rodney is back to the Rodney of old (HGH?)

Brady is the best QB to EVER play the game

The Pats will trade out of their high first round pick and draft a slew of Defensive players

Fans have no idea what they're doing when they vote for the Pro Bowl.
Eugene Wilson is 4th in votes at free safety
Bruschi is 1st in votes at ILB
Jarvis Green is 2nd in votes for DE
Chris Hansen is 1st in votes for Punters (he's the Patriot's punter by the way)

Moss has dropped way too many passes in the last 3 weeks (my unofficial count is 7)

The Pats won't beat the Jets by as much as people think. (see Nor'Easter)

Pittsburgh

If the Pats are going to lose during the regular season, it's going to be this week. If/when they get by the Steelers they won't lose at home to the Jets or Dolphins nor at the Giants on Dec. 29th. The problem seems to be that things are stacked against them this week and they've got a good chance to lose, at least that's what 'people' say.

What exactly is 'stacked' against the Pats this week? Well, an ESPN article gives 33 reasons why the Pats will lose to the Steelers. 33. Peter King of SI picks the Steelers 27-20 and gives 5 reasons of his own. There is another article on SI explaining why the Steelers will win. This is the NFL and the Pats are certainly not going to make excuses. However, it is difficult for a team to play a tough Sunday nighter and win the following week. It is hard enough to play a tough Monday nighter and win the following week. How about a team (the Pats) that plays Sunday night, Sunday night and Monday night in a row? I don't think there are statistics for that, because I don't think that has ever happened before and it certainly doesn't help the Pats any. But you won't hear that from the Pats likeyou would if this was the Colts.

Fear not though, loyal Pats fans. This is the kind of game that the Pats have usually won under the Belichick Brady regime. The game where things were stacked against them and they hadn't been playing well and 'people' expected them to lose. In the second game of the 2003 season after losing the Lawyer Milloy game at Buffalo 31-0, going into defending NFC champ Philly and losing Rosie Colvin for the year on the second snap of the game. The result was a 31-10 Pats win. In the 9th game of 2004 after the loss at Pittsburgh that broke the 21 game win streak, playing at St Louis' greatest show on turf. The result was a Pats 40-22 win and a subsequent 6 game win streak. In the 10th game of 2005 after a Monday Night loss to Indy dropped the Pats to 4-4, playing at Miami (then 5-4 and pretty good). The result was a 23-16 Pats win, IN Miami.

So let Pittsburgh run it's collecive mouth all week. Let all the experts explain to you why the Pats are going to lose this week. And Let everyone tell you that Pittsburgh's D is #1 overall and #1 against the run and #1 against the Pass and #1 in points allowed.

I'll tell you that Pittsburgh's secondary is not as good as Philly's nor Baltimore's and that the Brady will eat them alive on Sunday. How about a reason why the Steelers D is over-rated at #1? They've played games against offenses ranked 24th, 28th, 29th, 31st and 32nd. I'll also tell you that Pittsburgh stinks on the road. They lost @ Arizona, @ the Jets @ a weak Denver team. Pittsburgh only beat Miami 3-0 last week, how good can they be? Experts will tell you that Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 38-7 and the Pats struggled against Baltimore. Pittsburgh was at home. Baltimore fumbled the ball 3 times leading to scoring drives of 20 yds and a TD, 36 yds and a TD, 44 yds and a TD. Pitt's longest scoring drive of the day was 50 yds. Boller also through an INT for a Pitt TD. Do you think the Pats would have scored 38 on Baltimore under those circumstances?

So that's it. I don't want to hear any more doubt from anyone about this week's game. The Patriots are going to win and they are going to win big. No mercy, just running up the score.

Patriots 41
Steelers 16

My Return

Long time no post. I was out of the country last week for the Philly game, so I didn't get a good look at that one, but I did read up on it. Fortunately, (or unfortunately) I was back to witness the same thing this week against the lowly Ravens.


So what's up with this Pats team over the last two games anyway?

First, it's been a tough stretch since the bye week. A Sunday nighter in Buffalo, a physical battle against Philly again on Sunday night, then a Monday night war with Baltimore. Belichick admitted that his team is tired.

Second, two 'average at best' QB's played over their heads against the Pats.

Third, Two very physical teams with complicated blitz packages and very good secondary's gave their best games.

Fourth, my friend Joshy. In the last two games, the Pats have passed 92 times and run it only 30 times. Good balance Joshy. Worst of all, on most of those throws, there was never even the threat of a run (no RB or no play action). Haven't YOU been able to tell when they're going to run and when they're going to pass? Yet the Monday night guys are raving about how he's going to be a head coach someday because he's so good.

Fifth, poor play by the Pat's secondary. Bad angles on run plays, bad coverage, poor ball skills.


Ravens game

Were the Pats fortunate to escape with a win? Absolutely.
Were they given the game by the refs? Absolutely NOT.

So how can both the Pats AND the Ravens be upset about the officiating?
The simple fact is that the manhandling of the Pats by the Ravens was accomplished in part because the Ravens were breaking the rules. They were holding the Pats defenders and mugging Pat's receivers all game. That's why the Pats were so pissed off. The Ravens were steamed because the refs finally started throwing the flags. They had gotten away with it all game, why are they throwing flags at the end of the game?
It's the old adage that the refs can't call holding on EVERY play, so they let teams (in this case the Ravens) get away with it until the game is on the line. The shoe used to be on the other foot, remember the Pats manhandling Peyton's WR's in '03 and '04?

The Ravens game was the type of game we've grown accustomed to watching the Pats win. The fact of the matter is (AND YOU SHOULD APPRECIATE EVERY MINUTE THAT YOU WATCH HIM PLAY!) that Tom Brady is the best player in the history of football. Did he once show signs of panic or nervousness or confusion? No. He was poised, smart, and accurate no matter what was happening during the game. Kyle Boller threw a bad pick in the fourth, Brady drove the team for a win. Belichick made adjustments, Billick was busy blowing kisses to Rodney while his assistants were calling bad timeouts. It always adds up to a Pats win. As much as it looked like the Pats were going to lose from the very beginning of this game, you couldn't help but know that the Pats would find a way to win. It just that this time, it took a little luck too.


Colvin's Impact

Losing Colvin for the season is really going to hurt the Pats and it was painfully obvious on Monday. With Adalius outside replacing Colvin, Bruschi and Seau were the middle linebackers and that's where the Pats got gashed for huge yards. What's the difference? When a team runs the ball, the O lineman try to get to the linebackers by breaking through the D line. The D line, especially in the 3-4 and somewhat in the 4-3 are just supposed to get in the way of the Oline and let the LB's make the tackle. The LB's job is to take on that Olineman that breaks through and not let him break through, rather they must meet him at the line of scrimmage, thereby plugging the hole, giving the RB no place to run. Bruschi and Seau were unable to do that for most of Monday night's game. Instead the Raven's linemen were meeting them one to two yards deep, giving McGahee space to run through the hole and then make a cut behind the lineman's block of Seau or Bruschi. If you've got the game Tivo'd or DVR'd or taped, go back and watch Baltimore run, you'll see what I mean.

I don't know what the Pats are going to do to fix it. They tried the 4-3 early in the game and got torched by the run, then mixed the 3-4 in and still got torched. It wasn't until they called run blitzes with Rodney and or Sanders in th fourth quarter that they made stops and caused 3 and outs. The problem this week is that Rothlesberger and his WR's are too good to call run blitzes against. It will be interesting to see what the Pats do to fix their leaky D. Maybe the answer is to put Adalius back inside anyway, shifting either Brushi or Seau outside. Maybe the answer is in the 4-3, I don't know. Hopefully Belichick knows.


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 Dallas
2 Indy
3 Pats
4 Pitt
5 GB
6 TB
7 SD
8 Jax
9 Seattle
10 Browns

You can't tell me the Pats would have beat Indy or Dallas last weekend. You can't tell me that the Pats would beat Indy or Dallas this weekend. I'm not even sure they're going to beat Pittsburgh. Are you?


San Fran's Pick

I'm not sure how the tie breaker's would work, but if the draft were this weekend, the Pats would be picking 3rd, 4th or 5th. With games against Minn, Cincy, TB and Cleveland, San Fran's probably not going to win again this season. More than' likely only Miami and or St Louis will be picking ahead of the Pats come April.

FIFTY SIX to TEN?!?!?!?!

The Patriots beat the Bills 56 - 10 on Sunday night. The Bills, a team that was 5-4 and had won 4 straight games playing at home on national TV. The game was over at the end of the first quarter. The Pats could have scored 80. When it mattered the Pats had 7 drives that went as follows: 2 plays 13 yds TD, 6 plays 63 yds TD, 8 plays 72 yds TD, 10 plays 84 tyds TD, 12 plays 72 yds TD, 12 plays 73 yds TD, 10 plays 75 yds TD, 1 play 35 yds TD. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? If I hadn't seen it with my own eyes I woudn't have believed it.

Not much to say about that one. Brady was awesome, Moss was unstoppable, the O-line was impenetrable, Adalius was dominating, Sanders had a great game at Safety. OK, Maroney's still dancing and got benched for it, but with the Offense scoring at will this team could win the superbowl with Kyle Eckel. The convincing margins they've posted in their wins have caused many to say that this might be the greatest football team EVER assembled.

Some of those calling the Pats the best ever include Madden, Banks, Felger, Collinsworth, King etc etc. Of course it goes without saying that the Pats have to win out and take the superbowl in February, but these guys don'y see anyone in the Pats way. Here's the numbers: The 85 bears are widely considered the best team in the modern football era. That year, going 15-1 they beat teams by an average of 16 points per game. The greatest show on turf, Superbowl champion 1999 Rams won by an average of 17.7 pts/game. So far this season the Pats have won by an average of 25.4 points per game. That's more than 26 teams in the league score per game! That's the largest avg margin of victory since the 1942 Bears wond by 34 points/game. Again I say, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

The 5-5 Eagles are coming to town this Sunday. The Pats are favored by 23.5 points, the biggest regular season spread (not including expansion teams) since the early 70's. I say that spread is not enough. The Pats will tell you it's not enough.

Bob Kraft told Madden and Michaels that in order to clear their name of videogate, the Pats will have to win every game this season convincingly. Tom Brady told Dennis and Callaghan that they're not trying to beat teams 42-28, they're trying to kill teams, trying to blow them out. Don't think the Pats will "kill" the Eagles? One of Philly's WR's at the time of videogate was quoted as saying that maybe the NFL should give them superbowl rings since the Pats cheated to win. Enough said.

Have a great Tanksgiving!!!

Tell your family and friends you heard it here!!

The Buffalo Game

The 5-4 Buffalo Bills will host the Pats this weekend in a game that NBC has picked for their prime time, 8pm game. What were they thinking? Many feel this will be a blowout and NBC won't do so well in the ratings. NBC is betting that the Pats pursuit of a perfect season will draw a large audience. It also doesn't hurt that the Bills have won 4 in a row and are two field goals from being 7-2, with the additonal wins coming against Denver and Dallas. Maybe NBC knows what they're doing afterall. Did you see the battle the Bills gave Dallas on a Monday night in Buffalo? It was a great game. I'm not buying any of it though, this should be a blow out. The Bills top threat on an anemic offense, Marshawn Lynch, is probably not going to play.

The only thing that could make this game interesting would be revenge. Losman will be back in as the starting QB. You'll recall Wilfork's hit in the first meeting that got him a fine and knocked Losman out of the game. Losman has downplayed the story all seek saying that Wilfork probably didn't mean to hurt him and football is football. But Losman doesn't play defense. As a Pats fan you just have to hope that no one takes out his revenge on Brady. That's pretty much the storyline for this game.

Statistically this game should be a blowout. Here are the numbers:


Bills Pats
Total Offense 31st 1st
Rushing O 17th 7th
Passing O 28th 2nd
Pts/game 27th (15.9) 1st (39.4)

Total Defense 28th 4th
Rushing D 20th 7th
Passing D 28th 2nd
Pts allowed/game 9th 5th


My take is an easy win. The Pats will come out and make a statement with a couple of TD's right off the bat. Hopefully the Pats can try to establish their running game and try to get Maroney on track. I'd like to see him get the ball 20-25 times.


Patriots 41
Bills 10

TOP TEN; Odds and Ends

TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 Patriots
2 Steelers
3 Cowboys
4 Packers
5 Colts
6 Chargers
7 Jaguars
8 Giants
9 Lions
10 Titans

Yes, it's true. The Steelers are the #2 team and will probably be the #2 seed in the AFC. They are the toughest test remaining on the Pats schedule. Pittsburgh's Defense is #1 overall, #1 against the Pass, #1 against the Run, #1 in points allowed. The offense is #5 overall, #1 running and #5 in points scored. We all know that Defense and the ability to run the ball wins championships. Don't forget that Roethlesberger is having a career year. The rest of the way the Steelers opponents have a combined record of 24 wins and 39 losses. Take away the 9-0 Patriots and Pitts opponents the rest of the way are 15-39. I can see them finishing at 13-3.

The Colts on the other hand, are in survival mode. The loss of Freeney for possibly the entire season is a huge blow to this team. Injuries have decimated them, but that's their own fault. If you want to pay your 4 best players nearly half of your salary cap space and you want to have a small, quick defense then people are going to get hurt and you're not going to have the depth to win. Deal with it. What did the Pats have, something like 41 different starters when they won the superbowl in 2004? Did anyone notice Manning was trying too hard to win on Sunday night's loss. Last year was Manning's worst statistically, because he managed games, threw the ball away, made dump offs. Now he's playing like he has to win the game himself and he's forcing the ball where it shouldn't be thrown. That formula has never won for him and it's only going to get worse while his supporting cast is hurt. The remaining opponents have a record of 29-34. I can also see them losing at least one more game and finishing at BEST 13-3. The tie braker currently belongs to Pittsburgh, who has the better AFC record. That puts the Colts in the playoffs as a 3rd seed. A scenario of their playoffs goes something like this: host a physical Jacksonville team in the wild card game, travel to Pittsburgh who's just had a bye week playing in the cold on grass against another very physical team and the best defense and if they win that one come to New England. Doesn't look good for Manning and Co. does it?



PAT'S MOVES

Watch for Chad Jackson to start to get some playing time at WR. They have also activated Eddie Jackson, CB and special teams whiz. This will severely limit Kelley Washington's time. But why would they use 2 roster spots for Jackson ( a WR who can't play special teams and Jackson ( a CB who only plays special teams) when you've got Washington who does both? The asnwer is easy, the Pats need to determine how good Jackson might be next season so they can make up their minds on Donte Stallworth's mammoth contract.
The clock is also ticking on Troy Brown, who must be activated or placed on IR or released by Nov 21st.


SAN FRAN'S PICK:

If the draft were tomorrow, the Pats would hold SF's pick, the #4 overall pick in the draft. WOW. More than likely the Pats would trade out of that high spot for something lower and another first rounder next season, but let me run with this for a minute. Some available players include Glenn Dorsey of LSU - a next defensive line stud and future replacement for Seymour Money; Kenny Phillips of Miami - a playmaking hard hitting safety who has been compared to Ed Reed and Sean Taylor (drafting the Safety allows Merriweather to play corner when Samuel leaves next year); Darren McFadden from Arkansas - if you don't know who McFadden is I feel sorry for you, let's just say he's Adrian Peterson all over again.

Watch for Friday's preview of the Bills game. Until then here's a stat for you to boast about:
The Pats have scored 46 TD's this year.
The Bills have scored 14 TD's this year.
The Bills are second in the division in TD's.

KARMA aka HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!

Boy I just LOVE it when Peyton Manning loses. Before I get into any of that though, you must read this ESPN page 2 article by Bill Simmons. He pretty much sums up the way most of Patriot Nation does after last week's win at the Colts.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071109&sportCat=nfl

Now for the Karma. No, I did NOT get to watch the entire Chargers Colts game, but I saw enough. I was having a wonderful evening seeing a couple of the Manning intercepetions. It got better when the officials actually respotted a ball after a replay investigation of a favorable Colts spot. That made it 4th down. The Colts lined up to go for it and performed an illegal shift, false start with 3 guys moving at once. Then Mr. Clutch Vinatieri comes in and misses the game winner from only 29 yards. This is Karma heaven for a Pats fan! Two missed FG's for overpaid Adam on the night. The cherry on top came watching Manning throw his 6th interception to end the game. How wonderful!

It only got bad when ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth spent literally 20 minutes making excuses for the Colts. It was an emotional game against the Pats last week, injuries played a big role, the weather didn't help, the officiating was bad. BOO HOO. The fact of remains that the Colts would have more depth if they didn't pay top dollar for Manning Harrison Freeney Wayne, etc etc, etc.

Yup, I'm going to savor this one for quite a few days.

Fallout from Indy, Awards, Top Ten

They can say whatever they want. People have known for years that dome teams mic up the crowd and play it back through the Public Address system. You know the Pats would do the same thing if they were playing in a pansy dome.

I for one am happy that Belichick had a cold handshake waiting for Dungy. Dungy only compared Belichick to Barry Bonds.

Now the media are giving the Colts a good chance to beat the Pats in the rematch because Indy ran the ball well and they had injuries. Ummm NO. The Pats didn't play that great and chose to play the pass instead of the run with 6 men in the box. Not to mention the penalties - again. Mike Perriera, the NFL head of officials said the pass interference on HObbs was a good call. Like I said, I'm not surprised. My friend Tom Curran at NBCSports.com laid out 10 plays he noticed the refs screw up in favor of the Colts.


MID SEASON PATRIOT AWARDS:

MVP - Tom Brady It all begins and ends with Brady

Offensive Player - Randy Moss

Best Overall Player - Wes Welker

Best Defender - Vrabel 47 tackles and 8.5 sacks

Biggest Disappointment - Loss of Sammy Morris to IR

Biggest Waste of Money - Seymour Money

Worst Offensive Coordinator in the History of Football - Joshy


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:

1 - Patriots
2 - Colts
3 - Steelers
4 - Cowboys
5 - Packers
6 - Titans
7 - Giants
8 - Lions
9 - Browns
10- San Diego

9-0

The game of the century lived up to the hype - for once. Who would have thought it? Certainly not I. I knew the Colts D was good, but I never imagined they were THAT good. After the game, most experts were crowning the Pats as superbowl champion, giving the Colts no chance to win in Foxborough in January. They are dead wrong. What wins games in January? Good defense and a good running game. It's pretty obvious that the Colts possess both and pretty obvious that the rematch not only will happen, but also that it will be another close game. As good as the Colts were running it and playing D, let's face it the Pats weren't on their game and were still able to pull it out against it all.

I already know what the league will do about rookie referree John Parry and his officiating crew. Nothing. The league needed this to be a close game. That's why the Pats got a franchise record 146 penalty yards to a mere 25 for the Colts. I'm not a math whiz, but that's about 121 free yards for the Colts. Add that to the 329 yds the Colts 'earned' and you get a total of 450 yds. Yet, somehow the Pats D was fantastic and quite simply they won this game by overcoming Manning and the officials and keeping the Pats in the game long enough for the offense to mount it's comeback.

How good was the Pats defense? Take away the bullshit pass interference calls and a flukey 73 dump off to Addai before the half and the Colts would have a total of 7 points. Yup, a 24-7 blowout of the mighty Colts AT Indy. Not only did they hang tough early, but they closed the game out in the fourth. When the Pats pulled within three, the D forced a punt. When the Pats went ahead leaving Manning 3+ minutes to score the winning TD, the D stepped it up and made Manning turn it over. Ballgame.

The difference Rodney Harrison makes can not be overlooked. He held Dallas Clark to 2 catches, picked off a pass and finished with 6 tackles.

Oh and don't forget that the Pats D had one other obsticle to overcome, perhaps the biggest of all. One Josh McDaniels. I've had no reason to get on Joshy yet this season, but that's just because the talent on O has been enough to win games so far. In a game where they needed some offensive strategy, the offense was feable for 51 minutes. That's a direct result of an inept offensive coordinator, my friend Joshy. Where do I begin? Moss catching balls inside of 5 yds while sending Stallworth deep for a jump ball. Not getting the ball to Welker until the fourth. If you want to or have to throw quick passes to the WR throw them to Stallworth and Welker, not Moss. How about Maroney running for nearly 5 yds/carry in the first half and then getting one touch in the second half - a 3rd and one that they refused to account for and block Bob Sanders. Good job Joshy. Did anybody know coming into this game that Dwight Freeney is a great pass rusher? Maybe we all should have told Joshy about Freeney. How many times was he in Brady's face, forcing an early throw or an incompletion or nailing Brady right after he threw it. Joshy, Matt Light needs help with Freeney before he kills Brady. Here's a suggestion for you. Line up Kyle Brady next to Light and let them beat down Freeney the entire first half. How about lining Rodney up in the slot and having him run down the line and smash Freeney a few times. Beat his ass into submission and THEN single him up with Light. A realistic way to slow the pass rush is to use the screen pass. Joshy used the screen pass once. ONCE! Take notice Joshy, I'm not letting you off the hook for the rest of the season.

The fact is, that this game was won in the offseason. When it came down to it Brady hit Moss, Moss Moss, Stallworth, Moss, Welker, Moss and Welker. How about the one handed grab that Moss made? I've never seen a catch that good. Moss had his second TD of the game taken away on another bullshit call, offensive pass interference on Moss who never even touched the defender. Moss was unstoppable, but it was Welker that made the difference in the game. His returns in the fourth set up the TD drives. And he made an incredibly smart play on his last catch. The Pats were facing 3rd and 7, if they didn't convert Manning was gettng the ball back. Welker runs a great route, makes the catch and then drops like he got shot before rinning out of bounds. If he runs out, the Pats need to make another first down. Instead, he flops, stays in bounds and the Pats take a knee the rest of the way. Genius.

In the postgame Manning said they need to get healthy. The fact is, in the fourth quarter with the game on the line and the Pats closing in, Manning had two chances to end the game. He choked. First posession 5 plays and a punt. Second posession 5 plays and a Manning 'fumble' into the hands of Colvin. Two drives that took a total of 4:50. Better get your team healthy Peyton. Good excuse but typical of Manning - blame everybody else.

But these Colts are very good and they'll be back, on January 21st as a matter of fact, in the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. Peyton's already got his excuse, it's gonna be cold.

And The Winner Is

Just in case you haven't heard, seen or read enough about Sunday's clash of the undefeateds, (and you probably haven't or you wouldn't be reading this) I'll give you my take. As I touched on in my last post, things seem to have inverted themselves in this rivalry. This week it will be Indy trying to have long drives to keep the Pats off the field. Does it feel weird to read that, because it was weird to type it. The thing that makes gives me doubts about this game is that, for once, Indy has a good defense.

Indy's D is 4th in total yards and 1st against the pass. That's not a type-o. The Colts have given up the fewest yds per game in the air than any team in the NFL. I know, the Titans, Jags, and Panthers don't exactly qualify as teams with legit passing games, but the Saints (8th) Texanas (4th) and Denver (13th) certainly do. Here's what Indy did to them. Brees had 192 yds and 2 INTs, Schaub had 236 yds and 2 INTs and Cutler had 131 yds and an INT. Don't forget that I've already called Bob Sanders the best defensive player in football. The Indy D may be susceptible to the run, however. They're 13th in the league, giving up 107 yds/game. And you've got to figure the Colts have been ahead in most games so teams would be passing more than running.

Nothing has to be said about the Patriots offense that will face this Indy D. The fact remains that this is one of the all time great ofenses and Indy's D has never seen the likes of an O this good.

As far as Indy's Offense goes, they could be in match-up hell. Rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh is banged up and gets to face a healthy Seymour money. (Big C 93 had better dominate this week.) Marvin Harrison probably won't play and if he does he'll be a fracton of himself and easily covered by Hobbs. Dallas Clark won't have Eric Alexander to pick on. Instead he gets a guy in Adalius Thomas that's bigger, faster and smarter than he is. Reggie Wayne will get Asante Samuel with safety help from Sanders and or Harrison and co. Wayne is good, but not if he's the only weapon.



Three keys to the game

First, the aforementioned matchup between Clark and Thomas. If Thomas slows Clark to 4-5 catches and no TD's the Pats are in good shape.

Second, can the Pats front 7 contain Joseph Addai. The Colts have had a lot of success running the ball this year and have run nearly 50% of the time, a feat rarely accomplished in the Manning era.

Third, special teams for field position. The Pats are 3rd in the NFL in kick returns while the Colts kick off team is 21st and has given up 5 TD's on kick returns since the start of last season. Here's why field position is important. So far this season, the Patriots have scored a TD 79% of the time when they've had to go 80 or more yards. The Colts have scored a TD only 12% of the time when having to go 80 or more yards.


Here's what I see

I see videogate, three losses in a row to the Colts, a loss in the AFC cahmpionship game, Tony Dungy comparing Belichick to Barry Bonds, "tarnished" superbowls, and an off season spent collecting talent to match up against the Colts. The Pats are on a mission not only to send a message to the league, but also to remind the Colts who the best team of the decade is. The Pats are going to come out firing on all cylinders for four quarters like we've never seen them before. All you're going to be able to say at the end of this one is "Wow."


Patriots 48
Colts 27

A Complete Reversal

We've all watched the epic battles before, nine of them to be exact. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The Pats always had their way with the Colts and it seems like that's not the only thing that's changed over the years.

The Pats always USED to beat the Colts.
The Colts have won the last three meetings.

The Colts USED to get all the attention for setting records and possibly going undefeated (remember 13-0?) while the Pats flew under the radar.
The Pats are shattering records and all anyone's talking about is them going undefeated, while the Colts have quietly gone about their business - undefeated.

USED to be that only Tom Brady wins big games.
Manning won his superbowl.

Tom Brady never USED to have the weapons to match Manning's.
Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson, Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Gaffney.

Manning never USED to have a good defense.
Indy's 4th ranked D is giving up the fewest yds/game through the air and Bob Sanders is the best defensive player in the NFL (in my opinion).

Perception USED to be the Pats did things the right way with good guys.
Sunday's game has been billed as good vs. evil and the Pats aren't the ones with halo's painted over their heads.

Used to be only the Colts had all big money players.
Brady, Seymour, Thomas, Colvin, Stallworth, Samuel.

I used to hate Peyton Manning, Bill Polian and the whiney Colts.
I still do. SOME things will never change.

Running it up. Top Ten

The Patriots have scored 48, 49 and 52 points in their last three games for a point total that hasn't been achieved in the NFL since the early 1960's. Clearly they are running it up. Clearly they are sending a message to the league. Clearly Belichick's players are just fine with his ruthless demand to go out and keep scoring. They were humiliated by videogate and their superbowls have been questioned. Now they are out to humiliate the rest of the league where it counts the most, on the field. Last week's version of a Patriots bludgeoning was on the Washington Redskins.

There is no doubt that Brady was left in too long. No doubt that Belichick was pissed off when Washington scored a meaningless touchdown. The evidence that the players are all for the blowout? Just watch how mad Brady got at his O-Line when they jumped off-side in the red zone, in the fourth quarter, up by a score of 38-0.

I think the amazing thing about this team is that the two players that effected the outcome most barely showed up on the stat sheet. First, Adalius Thomas. His acquisition has allowed Vrabel to move back outside. Vrabel might be the best Outside linebacker in the league. He dominated on Sunday, recording 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 11 solo tackles. There is no way he does all that without Thomas in the middle.

Second, Randy Moss, who only showed up on the stat sheet with 3 catches for 47 yards and one TD. His presence on the field and the constant double and sometimes triple teams led to Welker's 9 cathces for 89 yds and a TD and Faulk's 7 catches for 57 yds, not to mention the space for Brady to run for his two TD's.

Overall it was a difficult game for me to watch. I mean, is Washington that bad or are the Pats that good? At one point int he fourth quarter I felt bad for Robert Kraft. The FOX broadcast was happy to show an uncomfortable Kraft when the Pats scored their 45th point and again when they put the 52 on the board. Yeah, it was nice to see the Pats score at will, but it did get a little uncomfortable for me when it became obvious that the Pats weren't going to stop scoring. Don't get me wrong, I'm in line with those that have said it's the other teams job to stop the Pats if they don't like the score. It's just that, I think 38 or 41 points would have been enough for me.

So now it's on to the team we'd all love to see the Patriots humiliate, the Colts. The problem is, we're not really sure if the Pats can even beat the Colts, nevermind doing so by a wide margin.

I'll have plenty more to post on this game later in the day today, (Thursday) and another post with my prediction on Friday.



TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:

1- Pats
2- Colts
3- Packers
4- Chargers
5- Cowboys
6- Steelers
7- Titans
8- Jaguars
9- Giants
10- Detroit

The Redskins are Coming

One of my two sleeper picks at the beginning of the season, the Washington Redskins, visit the Patriots this weekend. True to form, the Skins are 4-2 and are playing solid defense and "don't lose the game" offense. The Skins are the only team Tom Brady has not beaten, he's 0-1 against them. It'll be interesting to see if the little war of words between Gibbs and Brady has any effect on the game.

I believe this defense is the best one the Pats have faced thusfar this season and they'll be good preperation for next week's Indy game. They've got a very good linebacking corps and a pair of hard hitting, ball hawking safeties, not to mention 2 veteran cover corners. Rookie LaRon Landry is third on the team in tackles and his partner at safety, Shawn Taylor leads the league with 5 picks.

On Offense you'll see the skins play conservative, running to set up the pass with an occassional reverse to leading receiver Antoine Randle El. Jason Campbell, the starting QB, is in his first year as a starter out of Auburn and he's the son of a high school football coach. He knows the game, but he's not going to win games for this team. He's a "don't cost us the game" QB with 5TD's and 5 Int's. The Skins coaches have only allowed him to pass 168 times this season. To contrast that, Brady has COMPLETED 169 passes.

Here's how it breaks down:

The Pats are the #1 offense, 7th in rushing and 1st in passing.
The Skins are #25 on offense*, 16th in rushing and 25th in passing.

The Pats D is #4 overall, 9th in rushing and 4th in passing.
The Skins D is #5 overall, 5th in rushing and 8th in passing.


The biggest battle, however, should occur on third down.
Washingtons D #2 on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 32% of the time.
Conversely, the Pats O is 4th at converting on third down, at a rate of 48% .

Also, pay close attention to the special teams in this game. If Washington is going to hang around it's going to take a special teams score or two. Rock Cartwright is one of the leading kickoff returners in the game, averaging 30 yards per return and has returned one for a TD. Also th kicker, Suisham, is a perfect 13-13 FGs.

Here's how I see it:

The Pats will score on their opening drive like they always do. Washington's going to answer with a field goal. The Pats will have a couple of drives in a row stall, a result of a combination of good defense and the Pats looking ahead to Indy. Sometime in the second quarter the Pats score a couple of TDs and the Skins get one too. Watch for the Pats to lull everyone to sleep in the second half as they steadily pull away.

Patriots 31
Redskins 13


*NOTE If the Pats D gives up more than 13 or 14 points to THIS offense, they're going to get killed by Indy next week.

Catching Up, TOP TEN

Thanks for waiting patiently for me to return from my business trip to Chicago, the reason why I was unable to post last week. Looks like there wasn't much I could have said leading into the Dolphins game anyway, right?

There still isn't much to say about the Miami game. Miami is terrible. The Pats looked like they were playing against a high school team. After showing off receivers Stallworth and Welker for TD's, the Pats reminded the league not to forget about Randy Moss. His two TD catches were just unbelievable, especially the second one which he caught with the inside of his elbow because the defender grabbed his hands. Did you see the one he caught out of bounds on the fake spike play before the half? OMFG! (Can I say that in a blog?) The guys hands are like superglue.

The defense on the other hand, looks like crap. The Dolphins happless, Cleo Lemon led offense put up 21 points and averaged 6 yds per carry without Ronnie Brown for the majority of the game. Maybe it's too easy to let up when your offense is so dominanat. For me, it's two weeks in a row that the defense has been bad. If Cleo Lemon can put up three TD's, Manning & Co might put up six. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Tom Curran pointed out that, when Manning set the TD record in 2004, he threw 49 TD's and only 10 picks. Brady is on pace for 64 TD's and 5 picks. Frightening.


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS:

1 Patriots They may have the best offense ever.

2 Colts Winning with Defense (sound familiar?)

3 Cowboys I was very impressed with them against the Pats

4 Giants Purveyors of a 5 game winning streak with a great D.

5 Redskins That's right, the #5 team in the league will be a great test this Sunday.

6 Steelers Looked utterly average against Denver

7 Titans Winning with Kerry Collins says something about this team

8 Packers Need to find a running game. Gado is available....

9 Jaguars Too bad they lost Garrard against the Colts

10 San Diego I suspect they'll be climbing this list quickly.


Two divisions have 3 teams in the top ten. Obviously the best divisions in football are the NFC East (whom the pats play this season) and the AFC South.

The Cowboys Game

I'm not sure I can remember a more overhyped regular season game than the one between the Patriots and Cowboys this Sunday. It's been labeled a superbowl preview, TO vs Moss, Brady vs Romo, etc, etc. If it's going to be such a great game, why have ALL the experts picked the Pats to win? A better game might actually be the Redskins at Green Bay. At least the experts are about 50/50 on that one.

On paper the Pats and Cowboys look almost the same. The #1 and #2 offenses, the #2 and #8 defenses, great QB play, a dominating receiver, both undefeated and both have yet to play anyone. The Dallas opponenets have a combined record of 6-19 and have been outscored by 213 points. The Pats opponents are 7-17 and have been outscored by a total of 152 points. Two teams that look pretty similar on paper that are being hyped to death, yet no one's picking Dallas to win (except for "analysts" Emmit Smith and Michael Irvin). What gives?


This is what gives. Tom Brady is superperb and is very careful with the ball. Tony Romo slings it all over the place, see the Bills game. Randy Moss is a lot better than TO. Belichick is a better coach than Wade Phillips. That's what the 'experts' see. Here's the way I see it:

Yes, the Cowboys will put up some points, maybe 24 to 30 points. The fact is that the Cowboys defense, most notably the secondary just doesn't match up to the talent level on the Patriots offense. In addition, Cowboys starting cornerback Anthony Henry and his 4 interceptions is probably not playing this week. His replacement is Jacques Reeves. Statistically he's the most picked on corner in the league right now. He's been thrown at 57 times for 34 catches, 4 TD's and has no interceptions. Mr. Reeves, this is Mr Moss and Mr Stallworth and Mr Welker. Have fun. The Pats should also have a notable edge in field position as the Cowboys are near the bottom of the league in kick returns while the Pats are near the top.

Watch for the Pats to start the game in a spread formation, forcing Dallas to play nickel and dime with 3rd and 4th stringers then exploiting the D with a balance of passes and runs from the spread formation. This is the kind of game they've been saving Maroney for.

Watch for Dallas to try to turn this into a shootout. The Pats will get ahead early and the Cowboys will abandon the run with Romo slinging it wildly. No one has scored more second half points than the Cowyboys so don't count them out (but the Pats are #2 in second half scoring). Dallas knows it can't cover the Pats receivers, so they will probably blitz early and often with the hope that they'll force some turnovers.


The Cowboys score one late to make it close, but the score won't be indicative of the Pats dominance.

Patriots 37
Cowboys 29

Cleveland Game, Top Ten

It's hard to decide if the Patriots performance on Sunday was good or bad. Was it good because they didn't play very well and were stil able to win by 17? (Take away the turnovers and the Browns would have been very close.) Was it bad because Cleveland is not a good team and the Pats got away with one. I'll give the Browns credit for coming in and playing with heart and also for having a good gameplan. It was tough watching Brady struggle just because Moss was double teamed on literally every play. You'd have to assume that's what teams will do, double Moss until Brady shows he's comfortable beating them with other receivers.

Obviously Brady did enough to win even if it was ugly. Morris was very good running the ball and Watson and Stallworth showed that they can win ball games despite Moss' production or lack thereof. Is it too early bring in a new punter?

On cleveland's side, I'd have to say I like Anderson's moxie Joe Thomas is a stud and Bralon Edwards is a star waiting to happen. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed by Winslow.


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1. Patriots
They'll have a chance to prove themselves at Dallas next week.

2. Colts
They could play me at RB and still win, their O-Line is that good.

3. Steelers
Total domination of one of the better NFC teams.

4. Cowboys
I've been trying to tell you that Romo's not as good as the hype. He
is good though.

5. Packers
Winning and LOSING on the arm of Favre.

6. Jaguars
A dominating D and a ball control O. Garrard has thrown ZERO int's.

7. Titans
A dominating D and a winner at QB.

8. Redskins
Have you heard this before? Dominating D, ball control O.

9. Seahawks
Will the real Seahawks please stand?

10. Bucaneers
I can't kick them out of the top 10 for losing at Indy.



San Fran's pick watch:
If the season ended today, the 49ers first round pick would be as high as #10. The Pats might be able to draft a replacement for Asante with a pick that high. Might.

Browns Game, Notes

What a great week it's been. The weather's great, the Pats are undefeated, the SOX are up in the Divisional Series and the Yankees are down. Who could ask for anything more? How about some Patriots notes....

Tom Brady has won the AFC player of the month for September.

Rodney is back and should be in the lineup come Sunday.

David Thomas was placed on IR for the second straight season.
In his place they signed Marcellus Rivers to a two year deal.

I haven't even noticed that Seymour Money isn't playing. It doesn't appear that there is much of a difference between he and Jarvis Green. Green has been doing a great job filling in, he is 7th on the team in tackles with 14 and second in sacks with 3.

The Pats are scoring an avg. of 37 points a game while giving up only 12.

The Pats are also #1 in the league on 3rd down conversions - offesively AND defensively.
The O is converting 51% of 3rd downs.
The D is holding opponents to only 30% conversions on 3rd down.

Adalius Thomas is serving "Humble Pie" to his teammates to remind them not to get too big headed. T-shirts were printed that say "I eat" on the front and "Humble Pie" on the back. Players have been wearing them in practice. Word is that a special hoodie was also printed for Belichick that says "Humble Pie" on the back, while the front reads "I serve".

Keep yourself glued to the tube this week if you're a football fan. There are a TON of great games
starting with the college games on Saturday.

Oklahoma v. Texas
Georgia v. Tennessee
Virginia Tech v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Purdue
AND THE BEST OF ALL #9 FLorida at #1 LSU - DON'T MISS IT!!!!

On Sunday the good match ups include:

Chicago v. GB
TB v. Indy
Seattle v. Pitt
Detroit v. Wash
Ny v. NY
Jags v. KC
Balt v. SF


Here's what you need to know for The Patriots hosting The Browns on Sunday:

The Browns have a pretty good offense, ranked 11th in the NFL, but the D is pretty poor, at 31st overall.

On Offense you'll see an average QB in Derek Anderson. He's completing 52% of his passes for 9TD's but has thrown 5 interceptions. Kellen Winslow is the main target at TE He's got 20 catches and a TD but a whopping average of 19 yards per catch. Then there's Braylon Edwards. He's got 18 catches and 4 TDs and another big average of 21 yards per catch. The featured back is 'chip on his shoulder' Jamal Lewis who's rushing for nearly 5 yds per carry.

The X factor in this game is special teams. The Pats will have to bring it on Sunday. Brown's returner Josh Cribbs has already brought one to the house and is averaging 34 yds per return. If he scores on Sunday it could give the Browns some momentum and some much needed points. (see the 17 point spread)


I expect to see a Patriots gameplan similar to last week. Soft zones on defense to prevent the big play. It's the same old frustrating bend but don't break defense. It worked tremendously against Cincy last week and we should see the same thing this week. On offense, the Pats will run and then run and then run some more. The Browns give up an average of 160yds rushing a game. Ball control, long drives leading to scores - all day. Hopefully Maroney will be healthy and will be able to contribute to the running attack, but either way the Pats have enough runners to gash the Browns.

I think that Belichick won't try to run it up too much on old friend Romeo,
but I don't see the Browns getting in the end zone.

Pats 31
Browns 6

Cincy ReCap, Notes, Top Ten

I don't know what other superlatives I can bestow on the Patriots. They are simply awesome. They are superior. They are smarter, more disciplined, more talented, better coached. They are head and shoulders above anyone else in the NFL. Not that Cincy was a good team, but the Pats just cruised to victory. Once again, it didn't feel like the Pats were playing that great, but there was just a sense that the game was never in doubt. And in the end the result was the same, a Pats blow out. Great performances by Brady, Moss, Morris, the O line and the entire defense. The D held Cincy's high octane offense to an unheard of 0 for 7 on 3rd down conversions. Wow. It was also nice to see Stallworth get some production. I don't think any more can be said.


Brady is on pace for 4,472 yds, 52 TD's and 8 int's.
Moss is on pace for 2,020 yds, 28 TD's

The Pats have the league's #1 Defense.
The Pats have the leagues #2 Offense.


Can you call it Karma?
The NFL has punished the Pats by taking away their first round pick in next years draft, a pick that will probably the last pick in the round anyway. The Patriots still have possession of San Francisco's first round pick. A pick that may have just become a top ten pick with the injury to starting QB Alex Smith. Reports out of SF are saying that MRI results on Smith's shoulder are worst than expected. Smith is seeking a second opinion. As it stands this moment, Smith is expected to miss at least the next 2 games and depending on the second opinion, maybe the entire season. While we don't wish any harm to Alex Smith, it would be pretty exciting to have a high first rounder.


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 - Pats
Great D, Great O, solid special teams, superior coaching and superior talent.

2 - Colts
Watch for a Colts loss in the next 2 weeks, they are really banged up right now.

3 - Packers
Still doing it with D, but maybe they are relying too much on the Passing game.

4 - Cowboys
Beaten 4 teams with a combined 3 wins. Trap game this week for them in Buffalo.

5 - Steelers
I told you they'd lose when they played a team that can stop the run.

6 - Seattle
Looking strong on O, but even better on D.

7 - Tampa Bay
Another win, another great performance by the D. Too bad they lost Cadillac.

8 - Tennessee
Tenneseean is Tennebelieving. Watch Vince Young if you get the chance.

9 - Detroit
I don't know if I ever remember Detroit being 3-1.

10 - Carolina
Because I had to put someone 10th.


I'll be back again on Friday with your preview of Sunday's game against the surprising Browns. Until then, tell your friends you read it here!

Notes, The Bengals game

Let me start by finishing something here. With the videogate thing now behind us, I found a terrific article written about Belichick by Greg Garber, who covered him for years. It has great insight and brings up some terrific points:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=garber_greg&id=3034890


Looks like the league felt like there was some intent to Wilfork's hit to Losman. Small fine, $12,500 and no suspension. That essentially slaps him on the wrist and tells him not to do it again. To Wilfork's credit, he not only apologized on the field, but also personally called the Bills this week to check on Losman. Wilfork's a class act, and hopefully he won't get labelled as a dirty player.


Stallworth addressed the media this week to assure them he's happy. I was curious about him as it was and now I have my doubts that he really is happy. Let's face it, his contract is cut-able after this season and he's got a total of 4 catches. If he doesn't start being more productive, there is no way the Pats keep him on the payroll for next year. According to Miguel's unofficial Pats Salary page, "For the Patriots to retain Stallworth for the 2008 season, they must pay him an option bonus of $6 million by Feb. 25, 2008. There is a subsequent roster bonus of $2 million due on March 1, a second roster bonus of $1.6 million based on playing time, a base salary of $1 million and a $400,000 workout bonus. That totals an exorbitant $11 million for 2008." I think maybe we shouldn't get used to seeing him around unless he wants to renegotiate to stay here.


Monday Night Football.

This one has been billed Moss vs. Johnson. WHY?

Anyway, the Pats will be at Cincy on Monday night. The Bengals should be a dangerous team because they are really up against it. At 1-2, they are in danger of falling a full three games behind Pittsburgh in their division this week. It's almost a must win for Cincy and a team with it's back up against the wall is a dangerous team.

That being said, Cincy also has some injuries to deal with. Their best O lineman, LT Willie Anderson has not practiced this week and neither has TJ Who'syourmamma. In addition, starting RB Rudy Johnson is OUT.

What I see is a weak Cincinnati offensive line that will be dominated by the Pats front 7. Cincy will have no threat of a run game so the Pats will/should be able to generate a steady pass rush without sending too many guys. In the secondary expect soft, deep zones with the intention of making Palmer be patient and throw underneath for 5, 8, 12 yards at a time. The key will be just that, don't give up the big play.

On offense, I think the Pats should be able to do whatever they want. Cincy is 27th against the run (176 ypg) and 27th against the pass (258 ypg). It's just a matter of how the Pats want to score this week. I would expect the Pats to stay balanced, 50% run, 50% pass until they get the big lead then you'll see them run the ball to burn the clock.

It's hard not to pick the Pats for 38 points, so:

Pats 38
Bengals 16.

Bills re-cap, Observations, Stats, Top Ten

I cannot for the life of me figure out why Belichick didn't kick that field goal in the fourth quarter, instead electing to run on 4th and 7 and turn the ball over on downs. Would have made one blogger look pretty smart had he just kicked the ball. I can live with a 38-7 win and relegating myself to have to start picking the Pats to score 38 points. Other than that, the Pats put on another show this weekend. Yes, they came out flat and it was nerve racking for one Bills drive (backup QB and all) in the first quarter. But the Pats did what great teams do, win when they aren't focused for the entire 60 minutes.

Of course, it helped that Wilfork esentially knocked Losman out of the game on Buffalo's first series. It was the most controversial play of the game. Losman thought it was a deliberate cheap shot. Wilfork swears he would never intentionally do something like that. To me, the video evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of Losman's argument. Wilfork was on his way down and just before he hit the ground, he throws his elbow out toward Losman, striking his left knee. Hard to argue with the video evidence. I'm quite sure Wilfork will be fined and with Goodell's record so far it wouldn't surprise me if he was even suspended for a game or two.

Getting on to the good news or maybe great news, the Pats have just been better than anyone could have imagined so far this year. I don't EVER remember them having the #1 offense and defense in the league. In addition, they are outscoring opponents 114-35, the biggest margin in the NFL by FAR. Their avg points scored per game is higher than the total points they've given up! They've only punted 4 times. The offense averages 441 yds/game and the defense is only giving up 207 per game. Brady's QB rating of 141.8 is twenty points higher than anyone in the league. His ten TD passes also leads the NFL. One wonders about Cincinnati in the upcoming Monday nighter: if the Browns put 51 points on the board against them what will the Pats put up? (38 again?)


Tom's Top Ten Teams:

1- Pats
The plethora of evidence is documented above.

2- Colts
They haven't been pretty, but they're winning and very dangerous.

3- Steelers
Winning almost as decisively as te Pats, though they've played no one that can play run defense.

4- Packers
Brett's playing like he's 28 and the D is equally impressive.

5- Cowboys
I'm still not sold on Defense and I think Romo will eventually be exposed as a streaky QB.

6- Texans
Can't fault them too much for losing a close one to Indy without having Andre Johnson.

7- Tampa Bay
My surprise team at the beginning of the season has even surprised me, I thought they'd start 0-4!

8- Titans
I know, this is probably too high for them but I love Vince Young's leadership. He's a winner and the
team believes it can win because of him.

9- Broncos
Still a scary team and a threat to win the AFC.

10- Chargers
Sooner or later they'll put it together?

As If You Didn't Know

This week will be one of the easiest weeks all year to pick the Patriots. As if you didn't know, I'm going with the Pats this week. But at least let me throw some reasons out there for you.

First, Offense.
Second, Defense.

The Bills Offense is 32nd in passing, 17th in rushing and 31st overall.
The Pats Offense is 4th in passing, 8th in rushing and 2nd overall.

The Bills Defense against the pass is 27th, the run 30th and 31st overall.
The Pats Defense against the pass is 5th, the run 1st and 1st overall.

Game over.

The Patriots Keys to Victory:

1- avoid a let down
2- block Schobel, he's the only playmaker on Buffalo's D.
3- don't let Buffalo hang around, they'll gain confidence as the game goes on if they're hanging around in the second half.


A victory on Sunday will give the Pats a near insurmountable lead of 3 games over the Bills and either the Jets or Dolphins who play each other this week. Three weeks in, 2 divisional opponents will be virtually illiminated from contention.

The easy pick here is:
Pats 41
Bills 7

JP Losman throws a bomb to Roscoe Parrish who beats Asante for the lone Bills TD and Matt Cassell (I hope) plays the entire 4th quarter.


Videogate:
It appears that videogate is finally over. The Pats gave the league it's cheating materials and the league burned them. Hopefully I won't have to write about it anymore. I did find a great article by SI's Peter King regarding videogate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/09/19/mob.mentality0924/index.html
Although my respect for King has diminished since I found out some "stuff" about him and the Colts, this is a good article with good sources.

Tell your friends you heard it here!

A New Segment

I usually have a problem with the various rankings of NFL teams whether it be from ESPN, SI, Yahoo or USA Today. So I have decided to start doing my own top ten rankings once a week. If I had to come up with all 32 teams it would probably come out something like this:
1a Pats
1b Colts
32 the rest in a tie.

Let's face it, at this point in the season there are only two true contenders, but I said I'd do a top ten so here goes.


TOM'S TOP TEN TEAMS

1 - Patriots Looking like world champs, but I won't go so far as to say that they'll go undefeated

2 - Colts They'll stay here for as long as that young defense holds up

3 - Steelers Their opponents were not impressive, but they are a complete team that can win with O and with D.

4 - Chargers They are just aweful right now, but I wouldn't want to play them come January when they've adjusted to the new coaches.

5 - Texans I like their point differential better than the other undefeated teams in the league

6 - Broncos Bad wins against bad teams, but wins are wins.

7 - Packers For now Favre looks young. They are playing good Defense, giving up only 26 points this season, 2 fewer than the Pats.

8 - Cowboys Bad wins against bad teams but have given up 55 points

9 - Lions This might be the last week on the list for the Lions. Wins against Oakland shouldn't count.

10 - 49ers I would have put the Cardinals here because I think the Cards are better, but how can I when SF just beat them?




One quick note here. Don't get suckered into taking Green Bay this week. The Pack are at home getting 7 points from San Diego. Take the Chargers, the AFC is that much better than the NFC.