The Bye Week is OVER, Bring on Jacksonville!

The Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars this Saturday in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Finally! It was so hard to watch football all last weekend without a Patriots game, but it was great that they had the bye. I watched the Jaguars play the Steelers last week and I just couldn't help but be under whelmed. The Jags tried to give the game away. They had a big second half lead and through bad play calling and bad play the Jags allowed the Steelers back in the game. Which leads me to believe that if it's a remotely close game this weekend, the Pats will have a tremendous upper hand. The Pats know how to win ball games and the Jags are still trying to figure that out.

That being said, a lot of people are comparing this years Jaguars to the Patriots of 01-02. The easy comparison is that there are no superstars, no pro-bowlers, a tough defense and an offense that just manages the game. They are also similar in that they are so unimpressive when they win that you wonder if they should have won or how the heck they win games. You need to look no further than the Pittsburgh game to wonder how the Jags win. Garrard was only 9-21 for 140 with 1TD and 2 Int's. Jones Drew and Taylor COMBINED for 77 yds rushing. They're leading receiver had 2 catches for 39 yds. How the hell did they win. I watched the game and I can't tell you. Remember how eery team the Pats beat in 01-02 said the same thing? They had no idea how the Pats beat them and the better team didn't win that day. It's the same thing with the Jags. That's where the similarities end though. Don't tell me that Garrard is anything like Brady was/is. And don't tell me that Del Rio is in the same class as Belichick, Weis and Crennel were that season.


Here are the Jaguars regular season stats:

7th in total Offense
2nd in rushing
17th passing
6th in points scored

12th in total D
11th vs. the run
15th vs. the pass
10th in points allowed

Besides running the football, it doesn't appear that the Jaguars do anything well. But they also don't have a glaring weakness. So how do the Pats emerge victorious?


Seven Keys to a Patriots Victory:

1- The weather. If it's terrible weather and the Pats are physically unable to pass they could be in trouble. Matching their running game against the Jags running game is a formula for disaster. Fortunately, the forecast for Saturday night is partly cloudy and about 40 degrees at game time.

2- Get a Lead Early. The Jags have won 12 games so far this season. Only once did they win when trailing after one quarter. ONCE! Not only will the Jags lose confidence if the Pats take a lead, but it will also take the Jags out of their running game.

3- Stop the Jags' Running Game. If the Offense gets a lead early this will be taken care of. If not, the D will have to be stout on first and second down so the Jags will be in 3rd and 5, 6 or 7. Obvious passing situations bode well for the Pats. However, if the Jags are in 3rd and 2, 3rd and 3 all game, it will be a long night for the Pats. It also goes without saying that the D cannot allow a long run.

4- Contain MoJO. The Patriots must try to limit Maurice Jones-Drew. The guy does everything and he's VERY fast. Not only is he a great short yardage runner, he can break a run for a TD on any play. He's also their version of Faulk, with 40 catches for 10 yds a catch. The Pats can't cover him with a linebacker, he's too fast. They must also limit what he does in the return game. The return he had against Pittsburgh in the first quarter changed the entire game.

5- WR Size advantage. The Pats should be aware of the Jaguars trying to exploit the huge size difference between their WR's and the Pats CB's. Don't be surprised if the Jags start the game the way the Giants did, with a play action pass deep to a big WR on Hobbs. Most of their WR's are at least 6'4, Hobbs is 5'9 in his cleats. It has the potential to be a mismatch.

6- Don't let Garrard Run. The Pats have to be disciplined on their pass rush and not allow running lanes. He could keep some drives alive by running for 5 or 6 yds here or there on 3rd downs. Garrad's 4th and 2 run last week won the game. Don't think the Pats will be fooled by that play this week.

7- Patriot's Poise. No one has been better when the game is on the line over the last 5 seasons than the Patriots. Not only Tom Brady, but everyone. The coaches make the right moves, the players know when to get out of bounds and the D tends to come up with a play when they need it. They never panic. I know that cannot be said about Jacksonville.


A note about emotions here. When the Pats have been in tight games it was because they didn't bring the same emotion to the game that the opposition did. It must have been hard for them to be excited about playing on the road against a 4 win Baltimore team. For Baltimore, it was their super bowl and their emotion almost carried them to victory. But don't think for a minute that the Pats aren't going to be all fired up for this game. It's the playoffs, it's a home game, 16-0 is on the line and the Jag's are the experts sexy pick for the playoffs.

If that's not enough to motivate them, there's always the asterisk that appears next to the Pats 16-0 record on the Jaguars official web site. The asterisk that says the Patriots cheated.

I'll have more on Friday including my pick's for this weekend's games.