This Weekend's Winners

I can't imagine that there's ever been a divisional playoff round in which all the Home teams were favored by at least 7 points. So much for parity in the NFL. Historically, teams coming off the bye week in this round have gone 53-15 since the current playoff format started. Still, it seems like every year a #1 and or a #2 seed loses. Only once since 1998 have all #1's and #2's advanced. So, regardless of how much the favorites are favored by this year, it's a definite that one of them is going to lose this weekend. The question then becomes, which one?

The ESPN polls have the Patriots winning (68% of votes) the Cowboys winning (61%), the Packers winning (65%) and of course the Colts winning (65%). All the favorites, all the Home teams coming off a bye week.

The Jaguars are no longer the experts pick for an upset, their performance against Pittsburgh was just weak. So the hot game to pick for an upset has become the Giants over the Cowboys. As Lee Corso likes to say, "Not so fast my friend!"






Giants 20
Cowboys 24

The Cowboys defense, especially a home and healthy will be too much for Eli to handle. The Giants played well against the Pats AT HOME and beat an average TB team that hadn't played in a game in 3 weeks (resting their starters the final 2 weeks of the season).







Seahawks 31
Packers 27

This is your upset special. The magic runs out for the Pack. Seattle is hungry and playing well, especially defensively. The weather looks to be good enough to throw in, and that's what Seattle does best. Holmgren will have a great gameplan and Favre will throw a couple of interceptions.







Colts 38
Chargers 27

Yes, the Chargers have beaten the Colts this year and last year AT INDY. However, Indy is getting healthy, Manning will have his weapons and Rivers won't. Without his weapons, Manning threw SIX interceptions against the Chargers this year and still only lost by 2 points because Vinatieri missed a FG in the closing seconds. Indy's fast D will limit LT and force Rivers to throw to win. Without a healthy Gates, Rivers has no chance.






And now for the low down on the Patriots over the Jaguars. I've given my 7 keys to a Pats victory in the last post, here's how they'll accomplish them.

1) the weather is going to be in the high 30's just a little win and no rain or snow. Bradys physically going to be able to throw accurately in those conditions.

2) Getting an early lead for the Pats will be a matter of scoring TD's on the first couple of possessions, even if it means going for it on 4th down. Watch for the Pats to come out in 4 or 5 wide, spread the field and Brady to start 11-12 or 15-16 with 2 TD's or something close to those numbers. He's the best quarterback to ever play the game and the Jaguars will know that too after Saturday night.

3) Defensively the Pats will put at least 8 in the box and stop the run. Look for Rodney to be hanging out around the line of scrimmage with the linebackers early in this game. They are going to dare the jags to throw.

4) Containing Jones-Drew. Easier said than done. I think the Pats special teams are up to the task, they have always done very well against teams with a good returner. When he carries the ball they Pats know they have to gang tackle him. It's when he's catching it out of the backfield that he presents the most problems. The Pats have no linebacker that can run with him. Rodney's probably too slow also. If the Pats get the Jags in passing situations, you may see Merriweather or Gay covering him. On early downs, with the base defense in, you will see the linebackers looking to hit Drew as he goes out for his route. Smother him at the line of scrimmage before he can get into the open field and out run you.

5) There's nothing they can do about the size of the Jags WR's. But the WR's dont run great patterns and aren't the fastest group in the league. If the secondary just covers, they should be fine. The Jags were also near the top of the league in dropped passes this year.

6) Don't let Garrard run. In passing situations the Pats will control their pass rush, staying in their zones and not creating large lanes for Garrard to run through. Keeping him in the pocket and making him throw will be the plan.

7) We all know that if the game is tied halfway through the 4th quarter the Pats won't be the team to fold under the pressure. Does anyone know how Jacksonville will respond?


Patriots 42
Jaguars 24