Championship Sunday

The Pats are still a 14 point favorite to beat the already banged up Chargers on Sunday afternoon. It's going to be very cold and windy. The Foxborough crowd will be sitting on it's collective hands. My dad scored himself a ticket to the game. Thanks for not grabbing one for me too, Pop.


When the Chargers have the ball.
I think the Chargers know that they can't run up the middle on the Pats D. Look for the running game to try to use it's speed to get to the outside on sweeps and runs off-tackle. It will be imperative for the Patriots outside "contain" guys to get up field so the running backs have to cut back to the middle where the older, slower LB's can make plays. On pass plays, I think you'll see two things from the Chargers. First, swing passes and screens to the fast running backs, making the linebackers have to run them down and tackle them in space. The key for the Pats there is for the cornerbacks to come up and make tackles. Second, I think you'll see the Chargers take a few shots deep. They'll use play action and throw to their tall WR's downfield at the very least hoping to get some sort of pass interference penalty, and to keep the Pats Safeties back so they can't creep up to the line in run support. The smarts and experience of Rodney should help the Pats limit the big plays, but once the ball is in the air, anything can happen.

Look for Volek at QB, Rivers isjust too banged up. But the Pats should not let down just because it's Volek. In my opinion, Rivers is just slightly better than Volek, who put up back to back 400 yd games as a starter in Tennessee. You'll probably also see the Chargers going outside left then outside right then back left again via run or pass, utilizing the likes of Sproles and Turner to tire down the old slow Patriot linebackers by making them run sideline to sideline repeatedly.

When the Patriots have the ball.
Supposedly, the safeties are the weakest link in San Diego's defense. The Patriots typically exploit under qualified safeties with good play action deep passes. See the Pittsburgh game and how they picked on what's his mouth. Other than the "fear" of Cromartie and the pass rush, I don't think the Pats offense has much to worry about from the charger's. They live and die by the takeaway. They have forced 48 takeaways (30 INT's 18 fumbles). If the Pats don't turn it over, they win no matter what else happens. That's where Cromartie and the pass rush enter the equation. The Pats have only turned it over 15 times. Most of those are on Brady. He's been strip sacked 6 times and intercepted 8 times. Phillips and Merriman are quite capable of getting to Brady, so he may have to eat the ball once or twice and take a sack rather than try to make a play and fumble. Brady also can't try to force it. San Diego picked off the league's second best QB EIGHT times in two games this year. Cromartie leads the bunch with 10 picks, but Brady will need to be accurate on all his throws.



On special teams, the Bolts have a big advantage with a Punter who can really boom the ball and a small advantage with Sproles and Turner returning kicks and punts. The big advantage for the pats lies with Gostkowski. He's 9-10 in his layoff career, while Kaeding is at just about 50% in his playoff career.



The way I see it.
I see this one being a lot closer than people think. Yes, the Chargers are banged up, but they still managed a win in Indy when no one gave them a chance in hell. I see them blitzing furiously, trying to disrupt the Pats offense and cause mistakes. The Pats are going to score if they sit in a soft zone, just ask Jacksonville. So you'll see the Chargers blitz the kitchen sink on Sunday. The Pats defense is going to give up points and it's going to be more frustrating than ever because they're going to allow back-ups to drive up and down the field on them all afternoon.

When it comes down to it, Tom Brady is too good to be denied and the defense will make a play in the 4th quarter to seal the victory (again) after showing no signs of being able to slow the Chargers all day.


Patriots 37
Chargers 31

Get ready to bite your nails.





As far as the NFC goes.....flip a coin. The Pack looked good against a crappy Seattle team that gave up. The G-men are what, 9-0 on the road? Something's got to give. Personally I'd like to see Favre in the superbowl, then the Pats can say they beat EVERY good team in the league on the way to 19-0. And there's the little revenge factor on Favre for the Pats superbowl loss in '96.