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From: Tom Neves

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Congratulations to the NY Giants....

...the best team in the NFL.
They played harder. They wanted it more. They hit harder. They played with more heart. The Defense let ELI throw for 125 yds and 2TD's in the 4th quarter alone. The Giants absolutely deserved this win. The Pats didn't, plain and simple.

This game has to be enough evidence that Joshy needs to be fired. 14 points. The highest scoring Offense in the league got 14 points. Great job Joshy. As long as Joshy is on the staff of the New England Patriots I can't be a fan. You are only as strong as your weakest link and today Joshy finally cost them a game. THE game.

That's it for now....if Joshy's back then I'm not. It's been real!

SUPER BOWL XLII.....FINALLY!

And so you finally hear from me. I figured you'd probably
been getting sick of the hype and didn't need to hear it from
yet another source (me). I really hate this two week break,
though it probably favors the Pats. Sunday just can't get
here fast enough!

First let me say that the Patriots are not playing well right now.
If you're comfortable with the offense putting up only 21 points
while Brady throws 3 picks in the AFC Championship, then you're
quite the optomist. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that if San Diego
was healthy they would have won that game. Three red zone trips
would not have resulted in three field goals if San Diego had a
healthy Tomlinson and a healthy Gates. Sorry Pats fans, that's
truth. No one finds the end zone more than Tomlinson. I just
hope that the Pats defense doesn't get cocky after holding a
battered Chargers team to 12 points. Rivers had Knee surgery 5
days before the game!!!!



Other Notes...

If you're the praying type, give one up for Joe Andruzzi. The
former Patriots O- lineman, winner of 3 super bowls with the
Pats is fighting for his life. He's got an extremely aggressive
form of Cancer and he may not make it.

On a lighter note, I'm starting to believe the latest Patriots
conspiracy theory. Tom Brady's boot was a hoax. Did anyone
see Tom limp at all during the SD game? Not during nor after
did he limp. The media would have see it when he came out for
his post game press conference or while he was on the stage at
midfield accepting the AFC Championship Trophy. Still there was
not one mention of it. Then all of the sudden he shows up in
NYC with a boot and a severe limp. That same night he's out at
a night club in cowboy boots not limping. Then he's missing the
media portions of practice last week. On Monday he practices
with the ankle very heavily taped and moves gingerly. Tuesday
he shows up to media day without the limp. He pracitces with
no tape on the ankle, no sign of a limp or injury on Wed. The
injury report comes out and he's Probable for a shoulder for the
100th time in a row or however many years he's been probable for
a shoulder injury. What better way to draw attention from Randy
Moss and any other spygate story than to create the biggest
diversion of all? I'm just saying.

I love Brady's response to the Buress prediction. "We're only
going to score 17 points?! Is Plax going to play defense too?"
While I was watching Brady's response the bottom line is scrolling
that the Pats have scored more tha 17 points for 24 straight
games. Good one Plax.

Not everyone is picking the Pats. More 'experts' are starting to
pick the Giants to win. But they've got the lamest excuses for
their picks.
Noted Pats hater Chadiha (Giants 24-23) says,"If the Giants can
shut down Moss and harass Brady, the game won't even be close."
My favorite is ESPN.Com NFL Editor Sheldon Spencer (Giants 27-23)
who says,"A Patriots' rally falls short inside the Giants'
10-yard-line in the final minute." That sounds just like Brady.




Now on to the Super Bowl.

Based on the play of the Pats lately, I'm not feeling overly
confident about SB XLII. Eli knows he can pass against the Pats
secondary. The D line knows it can get to Brady. The Giants
have nothing to lose. The Pats have everything to lose. Face
it, the Pats go down in history as the greatest team ever or the
biggest choke team ever. It's not fair, but it's the perception.
Even Brady feels that pressure. Did you hear him say it's the
biggest game of all of their lives? One that they will never
forget for better or worse. THAT is pressure.

All that being said, there are some things that make you feel
pretty good about this game as a Patriots fan.

-Yes the first meeting was pretty close BUT the Pats played
wihtout the right side of their starting O-line, they literally
dressed no tight ends, more than likely they're not going to give
up another kick return TD and more than likely Manning isn't
going to throw 4 TDs and only 1 Int.
-Belichick is a rediculous 17-2 when facing a QB for the second
time in the same season.
-Brady always bounces back from a crappy performance with a monster
game.
-Eli is WAY over due to start throwing picks. He's only gone two
games in a row with out a pick ONCE IN HIS CAREER. Now he's gone
three without a pick and you can't expect him to make it FOUR.
He'll be good for at least 2 interceptions.
-Weather will be a positive factor. When was the last time the Pats
played a meaningful game in decent weather? Looking back at the
schedule, it has to be @ Indy's dome. Bad weather against the Bills,
Eagles, Ravens, Steelers, Jets, maybe Miami at home was decent,
Giants, Jags and San Diego. All lousy weather. Now your putting them
in an environment where they scored 38,38,34,34,48,49 and 52 points.
-Maroney should be able to run on the Giants. First of all, the Pats
ran for a meager 1.7 yds per carry in the first meeting. Do you
think the Giants players are concerned about the Pats running game?
I already touched on the fact that nearly half the Oline was out and
they had no TE's to block. If the Giants are forced to play with an
extra defensive back (nickel) to double Moss, the Pats will be able
to run all day against 6 defenders in the box.




HOW I SEE IT....

I think the Giants have to throw everything they've got at the Pats
early and often. That means going for it on 4th down, taking shots
at deep balls, and using every play in their playbook - reverses,
halfback passes, flea flicker, you name it. That means blizing
anyone and everyone from anywhere and hitting Brady a lot - even
if they have to take a late hit penalty. They may even get an
early lead, but eventually they just won't be able to keep up.
The Pats will have long, sustained drives. They'll mix in power
running with screens, draws and the occassional attempt deep. But
I think the meat and potatoes of the O will be Brady getting rid of
the ball underneath to Welker, Faulk, Stallworth, Watson before a
pass rush can get to him. On defense, the Pats will be weary of the
deep ball, and will probably sit in their soft zone and try to stop
the run. Eli will drive them up and down the field like every team
does. The Pats will find a way to stop more drives than the Giants
D will stop.

The Pats score on 7 of 9 or 8 of 10 possesions. The Giants just
can't score that much. Still, the Pats always find a way to make
their games too close for comfort.

Patriots 41
Giants 35

*please see my new prediction in the comment field.

Championship Sunday

The Pats are still a 14 point favorite to beat the already banged up Chargers on Sunday afternoon. It's going to be very cold and windy. The Foxborough crowd will be sitting on it's collective hands. My dad scored himself a ticket to the game. Thanks for not grabbing one for me too, Pop.


When the Chargers have the ball.
I think the Chargers know that they can't run up the middle on the Pats D. Look for the running game to try to use it's speed to get to the outside on sweeps and runs off-tackle. It will be imperative for the Patriots outside "contain" guys to get up field so the running backs have to cut back to the middle where the older, slower LB's can make plays. On pass plays, I think you'll see two things from the Chargers. First, swing passes and screens to the fast running backs, making the linebackers have to run them down and tackle them in space. The key for the Pats there is for the cornerbacks to come up and make tackles. Second, I think you'll see the Chargers take a few shots deep. They'll use play action and throw to their tall WR's downfield at the very least hoping to get some sort of pass interference penalty, and to keep the Pats Safeties back so they can't creep up to the line in run support. The smarts and experience of Rodney should help the Pats limit the big plays, but once the ball is in the air, anything can happen.

Look for Volek at QB, Rivers isjust too banged up. But the Pats should not let down just because it's Volek. In my opinion, Rivers is just slightly better than Volek, who put up back to back 400 yd games as a starter in Tennessee. You'll probably also see the Chargers going outside left then outside right then back left again via run or pass, utilizing the likes of Sproles and Turner to tire down the old slow Patriot linebackers by making them run sideline to sideline repeatedly.

When the Patriots have the ball.
Supposedly, the safeties are the weakest link in San Diego's defense. The Patriots typically exploit under qualified safeties with good play action deep passes. See the Pittsburgh game and how they picked on what's his mouth. Other than the "fear" of Cromartie and the pass rush, I don't think the Pats offense has much to worry about from the charger's. They live and die by the takeaway. They have forced 48 takeaways (30 INT's 18 fumbles). If the Pats don't turn it over, they win no matter what else happens. That's where Cromartie and the pass rush enter the equation. The Pats have only turned it over 15 times. Most of those are on Brady. He's been strip sacked 6 times and intercepted 8 times. Phillips and Merriman are quite capable of getting to Brady, so he may have to eat the ball once or twice and take a sack rather than try to make a play and fumble. Brady also can't try to force it. San Diego picked off the league's second best QB EIGHT times in two games this year. Cromartie leads the bunch with 10 picks, but Brady will need to be accurate on all his throws.



On special teams, the Bolts have a big advantage with a Punter who can really boom the ball and a small advantage with Sproles and Turner returning kicks and punts. The big advantage for the pats lies with Gostkowski. He's 9-10 in his layoff career, while Kaeding is at just about 50% in his playoff career.



The way I see it.
I see this one being a lot closer than people think. Yes, the Chargers are banged up, but they still managed a win in Indy when no one gave them a chance in hell. I see them blitzing furiously, trying to disrupt the Pats offense and cause mistakes. The Pats are going to score if they sit in a soft zone, just ask Jacksonville. So you'll see the Chargers blitz the kitchen sink on Sunday. The Pats defense is going to give up points and it's going to be more frustrating than ever because they're going to allow back-ups to drive up and down the field on them all afternoon.

When it comes down to it, Tom Brady is too good to be denied and the defense will make a play in the 4th quarter to seal the victory (again) after showing no signs of being able to slow the Chargers all day.


Patriots 37
Chargers 31

Get ready to bite your nails.





As far as the NFC goes.....flip a coin. The Pack looked good against a crappy Seattle team that gave up. The G-men are what, 9-0 on the road? Something's got to give. Personally I'd like to see Favre in the superbowl, then the Pats can say they beat EVERY good team in the league on the way to 19-0. And there's the little revenge factor on Favre for the Pats superbowl loss in '96.

Patriots Win, However.....

I've been carrying his banner all year long, telling you to pay close atention because he is the best of all time. And Tom Brady didn't let us down. Brady had the best game any quarterback has ever had in the playoffs, completing 92.9% of his passes, 26 completeions on 28 attempts. Two drops. Brady should have, could have been perfect on the night. I can see Watson's drop being called for a penalty since the defender grabbed him at the line of scrimmage and never let him go. Welker's drop was inexplicable. Brady was poised, accurate, smart and he improvised well. He showed the world once again why he is the best to ever play.

I know you never thought you'd hear this from me, but Joshy actually had a solid game. The much maligned with good reason offensive coordinator had only one pathetic play call. A 3rd and two shotgun draw to Faulk for a loss of 3 yards. Other than that, he mixed the run and pass well and called screens at appropriate times, mostly. Of course it's got to be hard to screw up when you've got Brady executing (and fixing) your play calls. For instance, in the 4th quarter, when the Pats were only up by 8, (one possession) they faced a second and nine after Maroney gained only one yard on first down. Joshy's play call was a screen pass to the left. The Jags were all over it and blew it up before it could evolve. Bad call, best of all time executing. Without any panic and with unblocked defenders coming at him (as is necessar for a screen pass to work), Brady rolled to the backside of the play wher he knew he would have Stallworth in single coverage. The threat of the screen had drawn the cornerback slightly away from Stallworth. Brady made a great throw under pressure and on the run to Stallworth, who for his part made a very good catch. The drive eventually stalled when Welker dropped a Brady pass that would have hit him in the face and the Pats settled for their final points of the night on Gostkowski's field goal.

Offensively, the entire team gets a big A+ for this game, but I'd like to single out a few players:

Have I sung Brady's praise enough, or do I need to go on?

Stephen Neal is the main reason why Maroney had room to run. Losing him for 8 games this season hurt more than anyone realized. Here's Michael Felger's summary in the Herald: "As usual, Neal’s best work came pulling to his left, such as on the 5-yard gain by Maroney on the first drive of the second half in which Neal found linebacker Daryl Smith and carved out some space for the runner. Three plays later, Neal had an even better one, pulling around the left edge, hooking linebacker Justin Durant and clearing the way for a 22-yard Maroney run. The next series, Neal pulled left, found Smith and corralled him on a Maroney run that went for 29 yards. The next play, he sealed tackle Rob Meier to his own side, allowing Maroney to find the edge on an 11-yard gain. Great stuff all around by Neal, who reasserted himself as the team’s best run blocker."

Randy Moss was the ultimate team player. Many thought he might be outraged to have only one catch. Instead, he kept working, he kept running and more importantly he kept BLOCKING. How many times did you see Maroney run by him while he was blocking his guy? I saw at least 5 or 6 good blocks by Moss. After the game, he was spouting the company line about 11 guys on offense and a win.

Donte Stallworth. He's lost a lot of playing time to Gaffney during the last half of the season. He probably knows he's going to be cut this off-season or at the very least asked to re-negotiate to a lower salary. He wasn't thrown to all night. Yet on a play that he wasn't even supposed to be an afterthought, he went all out. And as it turned out, Brady hit him on the busted screen play. Had he quit or put his head down the Pats don't gain 53 yds. And don't forget, with time running out in the fourth and facing a 3rd and 7 it was his outstanding, individual effort that gained 8 yds diving for a first down on a simple wide receiver screen. I hope he'll be back next year, he is truly unique in his explosiveness.

Laurence Maroney, or the guy they're dressing in his uniform. Where the hell has this guy been all year? He's running hard, he's decisive in his cuts and he's exploding through the hole. He only danced in the hole one time that I saw. Great performance. Must have had something to do with the diapers his teammates left in his locker in about week ten that woke him up.

And now the other side of the coin, the swiss cheese er... I mean, the defense. Just bad. As a football player you are taught the proper technique for tackling every day of practice from 1st grade right through high school and even at some college programs. I am shocked that Bill Belichick's team is the least technically sound tackler's in the NFL. Bill always prides himself as first things first, before we scheme, we're going to make sure you know the fundamentals. It just baffles me that no one on the defense ever wraps up or hits a ball carrier around the legs. Instead they just run into ball carriers and hope they fall down. What the hell is that? I hope you noticed how the Jags tackled on Saturday night. They were text book. The Pats caught a ball underneath and were hit, wrapped and driven back for little to no gain after the catch. The Packer's do it, the Giants do it, the Charger's do it, Indy did it, the Steeler's did it. You get the point.

In addition to poor tackling, they are the most frustrating defense in the league to watch when they try to defend the pass. You'll notice that there are two schools to pass defense around the NFL. You blitz, or you cover. That is, the coverage can and should be loose and conservative if you go after the quarterback. Conversely, if you send only 3 or 4 after the QB, giving him time to throw, they you have to cover well or you'll get burned. You'd think that, with 7 or 8 defenders in coverage you could cover the 3 to 4 or even 5 receivers sent out on a given play. Why then, can the Patriots Defense do neither? There's never a pass rush, and my god did you see how wide open Jacksonville's receivers were? No wonder why Garrard had the best game of his career staistically, as did Eli, as did Feeley, as did Boller. It just blows my mind that the Patriots keep getting away with it. You just can't help but feel that, sooner or later the defense is just flat out going to lose a game for them. Yet somehow, they seem to make a play to win it in the end. Jacksonville put up only 6 second half points. Of course they were helped by a couple of drops by Jags receivers but drops happen, just ask Wes Welker and Ben Watson. If David Garrard and Eli and Feeley and Boller can put up those kind of numbers, what's Peyton Manning... nevermind.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA, I LOVE IT!!!!! I LOVE THE LOOK ON PEYTON"S FACE WHEN HE WALKS OFF A LOSER!!!

The Patriots are already installed as 15 point favorites over the Chargers.

This Weekend's Winners

I can't imagine that there's ever been a divisional playoff round in which all the Home teams were favored by at least 7 points. So much for parity in the NFL. Historically, teams coming off the bye week in this round have gone 53-15 since the current playoff format started. Still, it seems like every year a #1 and or a #2 seed loses. Only once since 1998 have all #1's and #2's advanced. So, regardless of how much the favorites are favored by this year, it's a definite that one of them is going to lose this weekend. The question then becomes, which one?

The ESPN polls have the Patriots winning (68% of votes) the Cowboys winning (61%), the Packers winning (65%) and of course the Colts winning (65%). All the favorites, all the Home teams coming off a bye week.

The Jaguars are no longer the experts pick for an upset, their performance against Pittsburgh was just weak. So the hot game to pick for an upset has become the Giants over the Cowboys. As Lee Corso likes to say, "Not so fast my friend!"






Giants 20
Cowboys 24

The Cowboys defense, especially a home and healthy will be too much for Eli to handle. The Giants played well against the Pats AT HOME and beat an average TB team that hadn't played in a game in 3 weeks (resting their starters the final 2 weeks of the season).







Seahawks 31
Packers 27

This is your upset special. The magic runs out for the Pack. Seattle is hungry and playing well, especially defensively. The weather looks to be good enough to throw in, and that's what Seattle does best. Holmgren will have a great gameplan and Favre will throw a couple of interceptions.







Colts 38
Chargers 27

Yes, the Chargers have beaten the Colts this year and last year AT INDY. However, Indy is getting healthy, Manning will have his weapons and Rivers won't. Without his weapons, Manning threw SIX interceptions against the Chargers this year and still only lost by 2 points because Vinatieri missed a FG in the closing seconds. Indy's fast D will limit LT and force Rivers to throw to win. Without a healthy Gates, Rivers has no chance.






And now for the low down on the Patriots over the Jaguars. I've given my 7 keys to a Pats victory in the last post, here's how they'll accomplish them.

1) the weather is going to be in the high 30's just a little win and no rain or snow. Bradys physically going to be able to throw accurately in those conditions.

2) Getting an early lead for the Pats will be a matter of scoring TD's on the first couple of possessions, even if it means going for it on 4th down. Watch for the Pats to come out in 4 or 5 wide, spread the field and Brady to start 11-12 or 15-16 with 2 TD's or something close to those numbers. He's the best quarterback to ever play the game and the Jaguars will know that too after Saturday night.

3) Defensively the Pats will put at least 8 in the box and stop the run. Look for Rodney to be hanging out around the line of scrimmage with the linebackers early in this game. They are going to dare the jags to throw.

4) Containing Jones-Drew. Easier said than done. I think the Pats special teams are up to the task, they have always done very well against teams with a good returner. When he carries the ball they Pats know they have to gang tackle him. It's when he's catching it out of the backfield that he presents the most problems. The Pats have no linebacker that can run with him. Rodney's probably too slow also. If the Pats get the Jags in passing situations, you may see Merriweather or Gay covering him. On early downs, with the base defense in, you will see the linebackers looking to hit Drew as he goes out for his route. Smother him at the line of scrimmage before he can get into the open field and out run you.

5) There's nothing they can do about the size of the Jags WR's. But the WR's dont run great patterns and aren't the fastest group in the league. If the secondary just covers, they should be fine. The Jags were also near the top of the league in dropped passes this year.

6) Don't let Garrard run. In passing situations the Pats will control their pass rush, staying in their zones and not creating large lanes for Garrard to run through. Keeping him in the pocket and making him throw will be the plan.

7) We all know that if the game is tied halfway through the 4th quarter the Pats won't be the team to fold under the pressure. Does anyone know how Jacksonville will respond?


Patriots 42
Jaguars 24

The Bye Week is OVER, Bring on Jacksonville!

The Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars this Saturday in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Finally! It was so hard to watch football all last weekend without a Patriots game, but it was great that they had the bye. I watched the Jaguars play the Steelers last week and I just couldn't help but be under whelmed. The Jags tried to give the game away. They had a big second half lead and through bad play calling and bad play the Jags allowed the Steelers back in the game. Which leads me to believe that if it's a remotely close game this weekend, the Pats will have a tremendous upper hand. The Pats know how to win ball games and the Jags are still trying to figure that out.

That being said, a lot of people are comparing this years Jaguars to the Patriots of 01-02. The easy comparison is that there are no superstars, no pro-bowlers, a tough defense and an offense that just manages the game. They are also similar in that they are so unimpressive when they win that you wonder if they should have won or how the heck they win games. You need to look no further than the Pittsburgh game to wonder how the Jags win. Garrard was only 9-21 for 140 with 1TD and 2 Int's. Jones Drew and Taylor COMBINED for 77 yds rushing. They're leading receiver had 2 catches for 39 yds. How the hell did they win. I watched the game and I can't tell you. Remember how eery team the Pats beat in 01-02 said the same thing? They had no idea how the Pats beat them and the better team didn't win that day. It's the same thing with the Jags. That's where the similarities end though. Don't tell me that Garrard is anything like Brady was/is. And don't tell me that Del Rio is in the same class as Belichick, Weis and Crennel were that season.


Here are the Jaguars regular season stats:

7th in total Offense
2nd in rushing
17th passing
6th in points scored

12th in total D
11th vs. the run
15th vs. the pass
10th in points allowed

Besides running the football, it doesn't appear that the Jaguars do anything well. But they also don't have a glaring weakness. So how do the Pats emerge victorious?


Seven Keys to a Patriots Victory:

1- The weather. If it's terrible weather and the Pats are physically unable to pass they could be in trouble. Matching their running game against the Jags running game is a formula for disaster. Fortunately, the forecast for Saturday night is partly cloudy and about 40 degrees at game time.

2- Get a Lead Early. The Jags have won 12 games so far this season. Only once did they win when trailing after one quarter. ONCE! Not only will the Jags lose confidence if the Pats take a lead, but it will also take the Jags out of their running game.

3- Stop the Jags' Running Game. If the Offense gets a lead early this will be taken care of. If not, the D will have to be stout on first and second down so the Jags will be in 3rd and 5, 6 or 7. Obvious passing situations bode well for the Pats. However, if the Jags are in 3rd and 2, 3rd and 3 all game, it will be a long night for the Pats. It also goes without saying that the D cannot allow a long run.

4- Contain MoJO. The Patriots must try to limit Maurice Jones-Drew. The guy does everything and he's VERY fast. Not only is he a great short yardage runner, he can break a run for a TD on any play. He's also their version of Faulk, with 40 catches for 10 yds a catch. The Pats can't cover him with a linebacker, he's too fast. They must also limit what he does in the return game. The return he had against Pittsburgh in the first quarter changed the entire game.

5- WR Size advantage. The Pats should be aware of the Jaguars trying to exploit the huge size difference between their WR's and the Pats CB's. Don't be surprised if the Jags start the game the way the Giants did, with a play action pass deep to a big WR on Hobbs. Most of their WR's are at least 6'4, Hobbs is 5'9 in his cleats. It has the potential to be a mismatch.

6- Don't let Garrard Run. The Pats have to be disciplined on their pass rush and not allow running lanes. He could keep some drives alive by running for 5 or 6 yds here or there on 3rd downs. Garrad's 4th and 2 run last week won the game. Don't think the Pats will be fooled by that play this week.

7- Patriot's Poise. No one has been better when the game is on the line over the last 5 seasons than the Patriots. Not only Tom Brady, but everyone. The coaches make the right moves, the players know when to get out of bounds and the D tends to come up with a play when they need it. They never panic. I know that cannot be said about Jacksonville.


A note about emotions here. When the Pats have been in tight games it was because they didn't bring the same emotion to the game that the opposition did. It must have been hard for them to be excited about playing on the road against a 4 win Baltimore team. For Baltimore, it was their super bowl and their emotion almost carried them to victory. But don't think for a minute that the Pats aren't going to be all fired up for this game. It's the playoffs, it's a home game, 16-0 is on the line and the Jag's are the experts sexy pick for the playoffs.

If that's not enough to motivate them, there's always the asterisk that appears next to the Pats 16-0 record on the Jaguars official web site. The asterisk that says the Patriots cheated.

I'll have more on Friday including my pick's for this weekend's games.